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Jel Classification:G41 

Working Paper
It's Not Who You Know—It's Who Knows You: Employee Social Capital and Firm Performance

We show that the social capital embedded in employees' networks contributes to firm performance. Using novel, individual-level network data, we measure a firm's social capital derived from employees' connections with external stakeholders. Our directed network data allow for differentiating those connections that know the employee and those that the employee knows. Results show that firms with more employee social capital perform better; the positive effect stems primarily from employees being known by others. We provide causal evidence exploiting the enactment of a government regulation that ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2023-020

How FAIR Plans Confronted Redlining in America

Access to financial services, including insurance, is vital for the growth and development of communities. Without banks issuing residential mortgages and business loans, it is extremely difficult for people to purchase homes and grow their businesses. Without property insurance, banks will be reluctant to provide such loans. Thus, the inability to access property insurance makes communities more vulnerable to cycles of disinvestment and decline. In this Chicago Fed Letter, I examine the Fair Access to Insurance Requirements (FAIR) plans, how they addressed the issues of insurance ...
Chicago Fed Letter , Volume No 484 , Pages 8

Working Paper
The Missing Tail Risk in Option Prices

This paper contributes to the literature on deviations from rational expectations in financial markets and to the literature on evaluating density forecasts. We first develop a novel statistic to evaluate the overall accuracy of distributional forecasts, and find two methods that yield accurate distributional forecasts. We then propose another statistic to examine the relative accuracy over the entire distribution range. Our results indicate more oil price realizations in the left tail than predicted. We argue that this finding points to a persistent behavioral forecasting bias and a ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 23-02

Discussion Paper
Consumer Credit Card Payment Deferrals During the COVID-19 Pandemic

In response to the economic hardships stemming from COVID-19, many U.S. card-issuing banks offered measures to assist their customers who were financially affected by the pandemic. Unlike previous disaster assistance programs that were typically short in duration and localized, the COVID-19 pandemic affected millions of consumers across the country for a protracted period of time and required application of broad-based relief measures. These measures, along with federal and state stimulus and benefit payments, provided some stability to many consumers’ financial circumstances during ...
Consumer Finance Institute discussion papers

Working Paper
Identifying Taste-Based Discrimination: Effect of Black Electoral Victories on Racial Prejudice and Economic Gaps

I test for the causal impact of Black electoral victories in local elections on White Americans’ attitude toward Black Americans. Using Race Implicit Attitude Test scores as a measure of racial prejudice and close-election regression-discontinuity design for causal inference, I find Black electoral victories cause measures of racial bias to rise, by 4% of the average Black-White difference in IAT scores. Simultaneously, they widen racial gaps in unemployment and mortgage denials. Interpreting these close electoral victories as instrumental variables, I find a large causal effect of ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2021-07

Working Paper
Are Real Assets Owners Less Averse to Inflation? Evidence from Consumer Sentiments and Inflation Expectations

Using data from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, we document a significant negative association between consumer sentiment and inflation expectations, controlling for prevailing inflation in the economy. We further show that consumer sentiments of homeowners and stockowners are more sensitive to expected inflation than those of other consumers, a disparity at odds with the notion that owning such assets provides hedges against inflation. Leveraging data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations, we find three factors that help account for this difference. First, assets owners' ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2023-058

Working Paper
Which Types of Unbanked Households Are More (or Less) Likely to Open a Bank Account?

Using multi-year survey data, we conduct a regression model analysis to examine which types of unbanked households are more likely to open a bank account and which types are less likely. We proxy for households’ likelihood of opening a bank account using their prior banking status and interest in having a bank account. Unbanked households who previously had a bank account and are interested in having a bank account are more likely to open an account. These households tend to be more educated, to be native-born, to use alternative financial services, and to have access to digital technology. ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 23-08

Working Paper
Effects of Information Overload on Financial Markets: How Much Is Too Much?

Motivated by cognitive theories verifying that investors have limited capacity to process information, we study the effects of information overload on stock market dynamics. We construct an information overload index using textual analysis tools on daily data from The New York Times since 1885. We structure our empirical analysis around a discrete-time learning model, which links information overload with asset prices and trading volume when investors are attention constrained. We find that our index is associated with lower trading volume and predicts higher market returns for up to 18 ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1372

Working Paper
Your Friends, Your Credit: Social Capital Measures Derived from Social Media and the Credit Market

Chetty et al. (2022a) introduced an array of social capital measures derived from Facebook friendships and found that one of these indicators, economic connectedness (EC), predicted upward income mobility well. Bricker and Li (2017) proposed the average credit score of a community's residents as an indicator of local social trust. We show in this paper that the average credit scores are robustly correlated with EC, negatively correlated with the friending-bias measure introduced in Chetty et al. (2022b), and predict economic mobility to a comparable extent after controlling for EC. The ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2023-048

Working Paper
Uncovering Retail Trading in Bitcoin: The Impact of COVID-19 Stimulus Checks

In April 2020, the US government sent economic impact payments (EIPs) directly to households, as part of its measures to address the COVID-19 pandemic. We characterize these stimulus checks as a wealth shock for households and examine their effect on retail trading in Bitcoin. We find a significant increase in Bitcoin buy trades for the modal EIP amount of $1,200. The rise in Bitcoin trading is highest among individuals without families and at exchanges catering to nonprofessional investors. We estimate that the EIP program has a significant but modest effect on the US dollar–Bitcoin ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-13


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