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Working Paper
Information Production, Misconduct Effort, and the Duration of Corporate Fraud
Nilsson, Mattias; Black, Jonathan; da Silva, Maximiliano; Pinheiro, Roberto (2016-06-01)
We develop and test a model linking the duration of financial fraud to information produced by auditors and analysts and efforts by managers to conceal the fraud. Our empirical results suggest fraud termination is more likely in the quarter following the release of audited financial statements, especially when reports contain explanatory language, indicating auditors? observable signals reduce fraud duration. Analyst attention increases the likelihood of fraud termination, but the marginal effect beyond the first analyst is negative, possibly due to free riding and herding behavior impairing ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1613

Working Paper
The Effect of Common Ownership on Profits : Evidence From the U.S. Banking Industry
Gramlich, Jacob P.; Grundl, Serafin J. (2018-10-03)
Theory predicts that "common ownership" (ownership of rivals by a common shareholder) can be anticompetitive because it reduces the weight firms place on their own profits and shifts weight toward rival firms held by common shareholders. In this paper we use accounting data from the banking industry to examine empirically whether shifts in the profit weights are associated with shifts in profits. We present the distribution of a wide range of estimates that vary the specification, sample restrictions, and assumptions used to calculate the profit weights. The distribution of estimates is ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-069

Report
The impact of CEO turnover on equity volatility
Clayton, Matthew J.; Hartzell, Jay C.; Rosenberg, Joshua V. (2003-05-01)
A change in executive leadership is a significant event in the life of a firm. This study investigates an important consequence of a CEO turnover: a change in equity volatility. We develop three hypotheses about how changes in CEO might affect stock price volatility, and test these hypotheses using a sample of 872 CEO turnovers over the 1979-95 period. We find that volatility increases following a CEO turnover, even when the CEO leaves voluntarily and is replaced by someone from inside the firm. Forced turnovers increase volatility more than voluntary turnovers - a finding consistent with the ...
Staff Reports , Paper 166

Report
Merger options and risk arbitrage
Van Tassel, Peter (2016-01-01)
Option prices embed predictive content for the outcomes of pending mergers and acquisitions. This is particularly important in merger arbitrage, where deal failure is a key risk. In this paper, I propose a dynamic asset pricing model that exploits the joint information in target stock and option prices to forecast deal outcomes. By analyzing how deal announcements affect the level and higher moments of target stock prices, the model yields better forecasts than existing methods. In addition, the model accurately predicts that merger arbitrage exhibits low volatility and a large Sharpe ratio ...
Staff Reports , Paper 761

Working Paper
Why does the FDIC sue?
Koch, Christoffer; Okamura, Ken (2016-01-25)
Cases the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) pursues against the directors and officers of failed commercial banks for (gross) negligence are important for the corporate governance of U.S. commercial banks. These cases shape the kernel of bank corporate governance, as they guide expectations of bankers and regulators in defining the limits of acceptable behavior under financial distress. We examine the differences in behavior of all 408 U.S. commercial banks that were taken into receivership between 2007?2012. Sued banks had different balance sheet dynamics in the three years prior ...
Working Papers , Paper 1601

Working Paper
How Important Are Local Community Banks to Small Business Lending? Evidence from Mergers and Acquisitions [REVISED]
Maingi, Ramain Quinn; Jagtiani, Julapa (2018-06-29)
[REVISED AUG 2019]We investigate the shrinking community banking sector and the impact on local small business lending (SBL) in the context of mergers and acquisitions. From all mergers that involved community banks, we examine the varying impact on SBL depending on the local presence of the acquirers? and the targets? operations prior to acquisitions. Our results indicate that, relative to counties where the acquirer had operations before the merger, local SBL declined significantly more in counties where only the target had operations before the merger. This result holds even after ...
Working Papers , Paper 18-18

Working Paper
The Impact of Merger Legislation on Bank Mergers
Ongena, Steven; Carletti, Elena; Siedlarek, Jan-Peter; Spagnolo, Giancarlo (2017-07-19)
We find that stricter merger control legislation increases abnormal announcement returns of targets in bank mergers by 7 percentage points. Analyzing potential explanations for this result, we document an increase in the pre-merger profitability of targets, a decrease in the size of acquirers, and a decreasing share of transactions in which banks are acquired by other banks. Other merger properties, including the size and risk profile of targets, the geographic overlap of merging banks, and the stock market response of rivals appear unaffected. The evidence suggests that the strengthening of ...
Working Papers , Paper 201614R

Working Paper
Bank Size and Household Financial Sentiment: Surprising Evidence from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers
Roman, Raluca; Irresberger, Felix; Berger, Allen N. (2019-01-14)
We analyze comparative advantages/disadvantages of small and large banks in improving household sentiment regarding financial conditions. We match sentiment data from the University Of Michigan Surveys Of Consumers with local banking market data from 2000 to 2014. Surprisingly, the evidence suggests that large rather than small banks have significant comparative advantages in boosting household sentiment. Findings are robust to instrumental variables and other econometric methods. Additional analyses are consistent with both scale economies and the superior safety of large banks as channels ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-4

Working Paper
Gender and Social Networks on Bank Boards
Owen, Ann L.; Temesvary, Judit; Wei, Andrew (2021-03-22)
We examine the effect of the social networks of bank directors on board gender diversity and compensation using a unique, newly compiled dataset over the 1999-2018 period. We find that within-board social networks are extensive, but there are significant differences in the size and gender composition of social networks of male vs female bank directors. We also find that samegender networks play an important role in determining the gender composition of bank boards. Finally, we show that those connected to male directors receive higher compensation, but we find no evidence that connections to ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2021-021

Journal Article
Capital Reallocation and Capital Investment
Sly, Nicholas; Rodziewicz, David (2019-04)
Corporate debt levels have grown substantially during the 10-year recovery from the global financial crisis. This debt might be expected to finance investments that support firm expansion, as the U.S. economy has experienced strong growth over the last 10 years. However, much of the corporate debt has been used to reallocate capital through mergers and acquisitions rather than to fund investment activity. Perhaps as a result, some market watchers have expressed concerns that corporations are crowding out, rather than complementing, new investment. {{p}} David Rodziewicz and Nicholas Sly show ...
Economic Review , Issue Q II , Pages 33-52

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