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Corporate Debt Maturity and Monetary Policy
Fillat, Jose; Wang, J. Christina; Bräuning, Falk (2020-10-22)
Do firms lengthen the maturity of their borrowing following a flattening of the Treasury yield curve that results from monetary policy operations? We explore this question separately for the years before and during the zero lower bound (ZLB) period, recognizing that the same change in the yield curve slope signifies different states of the economy and monetary policy over the two regimes. We find that the answer is robustly yes for the pre-ZLB period: Firms extended the maturity of their bond issuance by nearly three years in response to a policy-induced reduction of 1 percentage point in the ...
Current Policy Perspectives

Working Paper
Banks, Maturity Transformation, and Monetary Policy
Paul, Pascal (2020-02-28)
Banks engage in maturity transformation and the term premium compensates them for bearing the associated duration risk. Consistent with this view, I show that banks’ net interest margins and term premia have comoved in the United States over the last decades. On monetary policy announcement days, banks’ stock prices fall in response to an increase in expected future short-term interest rates but rise if term premia increase. These effects are reflected in the response of banks’ net interest margins and amplified for institutions with a larger maturity mismatch. The results reveal that ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-07

Working Paper
Safe Collateral, Arm’s-Length Credit: Evidence from the Commercial Real Estate Market
Nichols, Joseph B.; Krainer, John; Black, Lamont K. (2017-09-07)
There are two main creditors in commercial real estate: arm?s-length investors and banks. We model commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) as the less informed source of credit. In equilibrium, these investors fund properties with a low probability of distress and banks fund properties that may require renegotiation. We test the model using the 2007-2009 collapse of the CMBS market as a natural experiment, when banks funded both collateral types. Our results show that properties likely to have been securitized were less likely to default or be renegotiated, consistent with the model. ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2017-19

Working Paper
Aggregate Consequences of Dynamic Credit Relationships
Verani, Stéphane (2015-08-14)
Which financial frictions matter in the aggregate? This paper presents a general equilibrium model in which entrepreneurs finance a firm with a long-term contract. The contract is constrained efficient because firm revenue is costly to monitor and entrepreneurs may default. The cost of monitoring firms and the entrepreneurs' outside options determine the significance of moral hazard relative to limited enforcement for financial contracting. Calibrating the model to the U.S. economy, I find that the relative welfare loss from financial frictions is about 5 percent in terms of aggregate ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-63

Working Paper
The Real Effects of Credit Line Drawdowns
Meisenzahl, Ralf R.; Berrospide, Jose M. (2015-02-04)
Do firms use credit line drawdowns to finance investment? Using a unique dataset of 467 COMPUSTAT firms with credit lines, we study the purpose of drawdowns during the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Our data show that credit line drawdowns had already increased in 2007, precisely when disruptions in bank funding markets began to squeeze aggregate liquidity. Consistent with theory, our results confirm that firms use drawdowns to sustain investment after an idiosyncratic liquidity shock. Using an instrumental variable approach based on institutional features of credit line contracts, we find that ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-7

Working Paper
Beyond the Doomsday Economics of “Proof-of-Work” in Cryptocurrencies
Auer, Raphael (2019-02-01)
This paper discusses the economics of how Bitcoin achieves data immutability, and thus payment finality, via costly computations, i.e., ?proof-of-work.? Further, it explores what the future might hold for cryptocurrencies modelled on this type of consensus algorithm. The conclusions are, first, that Bitcoin counterfeiting via ?double-spending? attacks is inherently profitable, making payment finality based on proof-of-work extremely expensive. Second, the transaction market cannot generate an adequate level of ?mining? income via fees as users free-ride on the fees of other transactions in a ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 355

Working Paper
Corporate Borrowing, Investment, and Credit Policies during Large Crises
Ebsim, Mahdi; Kozlowski, Julian; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2021-02-05)
We compare the evolution of corporate credit spreads during two large crises: the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic. These crises initially featured spread increases of similar magnitudes, but the pandemic was much more short-lived. The microdata reveal that firm leverage was a more important predictor of credit spreads during the GFC, but that firm liquidity was more important during the pandemic. In a model of the firm capital structure that is calibrated to match the joint distribution of leverage, liquidity, and credit spreads, we show that the GFC resembled a ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-035

Journal Article
Cash holdings and bank compensation
Mehran, Hamid; Acharya, Viral V.; Sundaram, Rangarajan K. (2016-08)
The experience of the 2007-09 financial crisis has prompted much consideration of the link between the structure of compensation in financial firms and excessive risk taking by their employees. A key concern has been that compensation design rewards managers for pursuing risky strategies but fails to exact penalties for decision making that leads to bank failures, financial system disruption, government bailouts, and taxpayer losses. As a way to better align management's interests with those of other stakeholders such as creditors and taxpayers, the authors propose a cash holding requirement ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue Aug , Pages 77-83

Working Paper
Forecasting credit card portfolio losses in the Great Recession: a study in model risk
Canals-Cerda, Jose J.; Kerr, Sougata (2014-03-31)
Credit card portfolios represent a significant component of the balance sheets of the largest US banks. The charge?off rate in this asset class increased drastically during the Great Recession. The recent economic downturn offers a unique opportunity to analyze the performance of credit risk models applied to credit card portfolios under conditions of economic stress. Specifically, we evaluate three potential sources of model risk: model specification, sample selection, and stress scenario selection. Our analysis indicates that model specifications that incorporate interactions between policy ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-10

Working Paper
The Credit Line Channel
Krainer, John; Greenwald, Daniel L.; Paul, Pascal (2020-07-31)
Aggregate bank lending to ﬁrms expands following adverse macroeconomic shocks, such as the outbreak of COVID-19 or a monetary policy tightening, at odds with canonical models. Using loan-level supervisory data, we show that these dynamics are driven by draws on credit lines by large ﬁrms. Banks that experience larger drawdowns restrict term lending more — an externality onto smaller ﬁrms. Using a structural model, we show that credit lines are necessary to reproduce the ﬂow of credit toward less constrained ﬁrms after adverse shocks. While credit lines increase total credit ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-26

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