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Jel Classification:G23 

Working Paper
Only Winners in Tough Times Repeat: Hedge Fund Performance Persistence over Different Market Conditions

We provide novel evidence that hedge fund performance is persistent following weak hedge fund markets, but is not persistent following strong markets. Specifically, we construct two performance measures, DownsideReturns and UpsideReturns, conditioned on the level of overall hedge fund sector returns. After adjusting for risks, funds in the highest DownsideReturns quintile outperform funds in the lowest quintile by about 7% in the subsequent year, whereas funds with better UpsideReturns do not outperform subsequently. The DownsideReturns can predict future fund performance over a horizon as ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2016-030

Working Paper
The Internal Capital Markets of Global Dealer Banks

This study uncovers the existence of a trillion-dollar internal capital market that played a central role in the financing of dealer banks during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Hand-collecting a novel set of dealer microdata at the subsidiary level, I present the first set of facts on the evolution of interaffiliate loans between U.S. primary dealers and their (primarily foreign) siblings. First, the aggregate size of these dealer internal capital markets quadrupled from $335 billion in 2001 to $1.2 trillion by 2007. Second, 25 percent of total repurchase agreements and 61 percent of total ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2021-036

Journal Article
Peas in a pod? Comparing the U.S. and Danish mortgage finance systems

Like the United States, Denmark relies heavily on capital markets for funding residential mortgages, and its covered bond market bears a number of similarities to U.S. agency securitization. This article describes the key features of the Danish mortgage finance system and compares and contrasts them with those of the U.S. system. In addition, it highlights characteristics of the Danish model that may be of interest as the United States considers further mortgage finance reform. In particular, the Danish system includes features that mitigate refinancing frictions during periods of falling ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue 24-3 , Pages 63-87

Working Paper
Which Lenders Are More Likely to Reach Out to Underserved Consumers: Banks versus Fintechs versus Other Nonbanks?

There has been a great deal of interest recently in understanding the potential role of fintech firms in expanding credit access to the underbanked and credit-constrained consumers. We explore the supply side of fintech credit, focusing on unsecured personal loans and mortgage loans. We investigate whether fintech firms are more likely than other lenders to reach out to “underserved consumers,” such as minorities; those with low income, low credit scores, or thin credit histories; or those who have a history of being denied for credit. Using a rich data set of credit offers from Mintel, ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-17

Briefing
Neobanks: Banks by Any Other Name?

Neobanks, or digital banks, are bank-like providers of financial services that operate through apps and aim to appeal to different consumer groups through innovative features and design. Whether or not neobanks evolve into full banks, they have the potential to affect the traditional banking model.
Payments System Research Briefing

Working Paper
Overnight RRP Operations as a Monetary Policy Tool: Some Design Considerations

We review recent changes in monetary policy that have led to development and testing of an overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ON RRP) facility, an innovative tool for implementing monetary policy during the normalization process. Making ON RRPs available to a broad set of investors, including nonbank institutions that are significant lenders in money markets, could complement the use of the interest on excess reserves (IOER) and help control short-term interest rates. We examine some potentially important secondary effects of an ON RRP facility, both positive and negative, including ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-10

Working Paper
Capital Flows in Risky Times: Risk-On / Risk-Off and Emerging Market Tail Risk

This paper characterizes the implications of risk-on/risk-off shocks for emerging market capital flows and returns. We document that these shocks have important implications not only for the median of emerging markets flows and returns but also for the left tail. Further, while there are some differences in the effects across bond vs. equity markets and flows vs. asset returns, the effects associated with the worst realizations are generally larger than on the median realization. We apply our methodology to the COVID-19 shock to examine the pattern of flow and return realizations: the sizable ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 20-08

Report
Asset price effects of peer benchmarking: evidence from a natural experiment

We estimate the effects of peer benchmarking by institutional investors on asset prices. To identify trades purely due to peer benchmarking as separate from those based on fundamentals or private information, we exploit a natural experiment involving a change in a government-imposed underperformance penalty applicable to Colombian pension funds. This change in regulation is orthogonal to stock fundamentals and only affects incentives to track peer portfolios, allowing us to identify the component of demand that is caused by peer benchmarking. We find that these peer effects generate excess ...
Staff Reports , Paper 727

Working Paper
The Dollar and Corporate Borrowing Costs

We show that U.S. dollar movements affect syndicated loan terms for U.S. borrowers, even for those without trade exposure. We identify the effect of dollar movements using spread and loan amount adjustments during the syndication process. Using this high-frequency, within loan variation, we find that a one standard deviation increase in the dollar index increases spreads by up to 15 basis points and reduces loan amounts and underpricing by up to 2 percent and 7 basis points, respectively. These effects are concentrated in dollar appreciations. Our results suggest that global factors reflected ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1312

Working Paper
AIG in Hindsight

The near-failure on September 16, 2008, of American International Group (AIG) was an iconic moment in the financial crisis. The decision to rescue AIG was controversial at the time and remains so. Large bets on real estate pushed AIG to the brink of bankruptcy. In one case, AIG used securities lending to transform insurance company assets into residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), ultimately losing at least $21 billion and threatening the solvency of the life insurance companies. AIG also sold insurance on multi-sector CDOs, backed by real ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2014-7

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