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Jel Classification:G23 

Working Paper
Credit Migration and Covered Interest Rate Parity

This paper examines the connection between deviations in covered interest rate parity and differences in the credit spread of bonds of similar risk but different currency denomination. These two pricing anomalies are highly aligned in both the time series and the cross-section of currencies. The composite of these two pricing deviations ? the corporate basis ? represents the currency-hedged borrowing cost difference between currency regions and explains up to a third of the variation in the aggregate corporate debt issuance flow. I show that arbitrage aimed at exploiting one type of security ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1255

Working Paper
The Credit Card Act and Consumer Finance Company Lending

The Credit Card Accountability and Disclosure Act (CARD Act) of 2009 restricted several risk management practices of credit card issuers. Using a quasi-experimental design with credit bureau data on consumer lending, we find evidence consistent with the hypothesis that the act??s restrictions on risk management practices contributed to a large decline in bank card holding by higher risk, nonprime consumers but had little effect on prime consumers. Looking at consumer finance loans, historically a source of credit for higher risk consumers, we find greater reliance on such loans by nonprime ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-072

Working Paper
The Failure of supervisory stress testing: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and OFHEO

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, policymakers in the United States and elsewhere have adopted stress testing as a central tool for supervising large, complex, financial institutions and promoting financial stability. Although supervisory stress testing may confer substantial benefits, such tests are vulnerable to model risk. This paper studies the risk-based capital stress test conducted by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) that are central to the U.S. housing finance ...
Working Papers , Paper 15-4

Working Paper
The Shift from Active to Passive Investing : Potential Risks to Financial Stability?

The past couple of decades have seen a significant shift in assets from active to passive investment strategies. We examine the potential effects of this shift for financial stability through four different channels: (1) effects on investment funds’ liquidity transformation and redemption risks; (2) passive strategies that amplify market volatility; (3) increases in asset-management industry concentration; and (4) the effects on valuations, volatility, and comovement of assets that are included in indexes. Overall, the shift from active to passive investment strategies appears to be ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-060r1

Report
Trends in credit market arbitrage

Market participants and policymakers alike were surprised by the large, prolonged dislocations in credit market arbitrage trades during the second half of 2015 and the first quarter of 2016. In this paper, we examine three explanations proposed by market participants: increased idiosyncratic risks, strategic positioning by some market participants, and regulatory changes. We find some evidence of increased idiosyncratic risk during the relevant period but limited evidence of asset managers changing their positioning in derivative products. While we cannot quantify the contribution of these ...
Staff Reports , Paper 784

Report
Buyout activity: the impact of aggregate discount rates

Buyout booms form in response to declines in the aggregate risk premium. We document that the equity risk premium is the primary determinant of buyout activity rather than credit-specific conditions. We articulate a simple explanation for this phenomenon: a low risk premium increases the present value of performance gains and decreases the cost of holding an illiquid investment. A panel of U.S. buyouts confirms this view. The risk premium shapes changes in buyout characteristics over the cycle, including their riskiness, leverage, and performance. Our results underscore the importance of the ...
Staff Reports , Paper 606

Journal Article
So Far, So Good: Government Insurance of Financial Sector Tail Risk

The US government has intervened to provide extraordinary support 16 times from 1970 to 2020 with the goal of preventing or mitigating (or both) the cost of financial instability to the financial sector and the real economy. This article discusses the motivation for such support, reviewing the instances where support was provided, along with one case where it was expected but not provided. The article then discusses the moral hazard and fiscal risks posed by the government's insurance of the tail risk along with ways to reduce the government's risk exposure.
Policy Hub , Volume 2021 , Issue 13

Briefing
Walmart Checking and Apple Savings: Different Motivations, Similar Outcomes?

Walmart and Apple have announced plans to offer traditional financial accounts. Walmart’s consumer checking account may advance financial inclusion by increasing account access to unbanked and underbanked consumers. Apple’s consumer savings account may change how credit card issuers offer rewards to their customers. Both offerings are likely to increase competition in the financial services industry, though whether they ultimately benefit consumers remains to be seen.
Payments System Research Briefing , Issue November 30, 2022 , Pages 5

Briefing
Pondering Payments: Challenges of Reaching All Americans

Policy Perspectives

Report
A Demand System Approach to Asset Pricing

This Staff Report was previously titled "An Equilibrium Model of Institutional Demand and Asset Prices." {{p}} We develop an asset pricing model with rich heterogeneity in asset demand across investors, designed to match institutional holdings data. The equilibrium price vector is uniquely determined by market clearing, which equates the supply of each asset to aggregate demand. We estimate the model on U.S. stock market data by instrumental variables, under an identifying assumption that allows for price impact. The model sheds light on the role of institutions in stock market ...
Staff Report , Paper 510

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