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Speech
Panel remarks at the International Symposium of the Banque de France
Dudley, William (2014-11-07)
Remarks at the International Symposium of the Banque de France, Central Banking: The Way Forward? Paris, France.
Speech , Paper 150

Report
Informational contagion in the laboratory
Cipriani, Marco; Guarino, Antonio; Guazzarotti, Giovanni; Tagliati, Federico; Fischer, Sven (2015-03-01)
We study the informational channel of financial contagion in the laboratory. In our experiment, two markets with correlated fundamentals open sequentially. In both markets, subjects receive private information. Subjects in the market opening second also observe the history of trades and prices in the first market. We find that although in both markets private information is only imperfectly aggregated, subjects are able to make correct inferences based on the public information coming from the market that opens first. As a result, we observe financial contagion in the laboratory: Indeed, the ...
Staff Reports , Paper 715

Report
Good news is bad news: leverage cycles and sudden stops
Akinci, Ozge; Chahrour, Ryan (2015-09-01)
We show that a model with imperfectly forecastable changes in future productivity and an occasionally binding collateral constraint can match a set of stylized facts about ?sudden stop? events. ?Good? news about future productivity raises leverage during times of expansion, increasing the probability that the constraint binds, and a sudden stop occurs, in future periods. The economy exhibits a boom period in the run-up to the sudden stop, with output, consumption, and investment all above trend, consistent with the data. During the sudden stop, the nonlinear effects of the constraint induce ...
Staff Reports , Paper 738

Report
Arbitrage-free affine models of the forward price of foreign currency
Durham, J. Benson (2014-02-01)
Forward foreign exchange contracts embed not only expected depreciation but also a sizable premium, which complicates inferences about anticipated returns. This study derives arbitrage-free affine forward currency models (AFCMs) with closed-form expressions for both unobservable variables. Model calibration to forward term structures of eleven U.S.-dollar currency pairs from the mid-to-late 1990s through early 2014 fits the data closely and suggests that the premium is indeed nonzero and variable, but not to the degree implied by previous econometric studies.
Staff Reports , Paper 665

Report
LIBOR: origins, economics, crisis, scandal, and reform
Hou, David; Skeie, David R. (2014-03-01)
The London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) is a widely used indicator of funding conditions in the interbank market. As of 2013, LIBOR underpins more than $300 trillion of financial contracts, including swaps and futures, in addition to trillions more in variable-rate mortgage and student loans. LIBOR's volatile behavior during the financial crisis provoked questions surrounding its credibility. Ongoing regulatory investigations have uncovered misconduct by a number of financial institutions. Policymakers across the globe now face the task of reforming LIBOR in the aftermath of the scandal and ...
Staff Reports , Paper 667

Report
Institutional affiliation and the role of venture capital: evidence from initial public offerings in Japan
Hamao, Yasushi; Packer, Frank; Ritter, Jay (1997-11-01)
The presence of venture capital in the ownership structure of U.S. firms going public has been associated with both improved long-term performance and lower underpricing at the time of the IPOs. In Japan, we find the long-run performance of venture capital-backed IPOs to be no better than that of other IPOs, with the exception of firms backed by foreign owned or independent venture capitalists. Many of the major venture capital firms in Japan are subsidiaries of securities firms that may face a conflict of interest when underwriting the venture capital-backed issue. When venture capital ...
Staff Reports , Paper 52

Report
Going global: markups and product quality in the Chinese art market
Bai, Jennie; Guo, Jia; Mandel, Benjamin R. (2013-05-01)
We analyze two reasons for export prices to be different across markets ? namely, quality differentiation and variable markups ? and attempt to parse their relative importance and some of their underlying drivers. To overcome the substantial measurement issues in this task, we consider a particular industry as a special case: Chinese fine art. The simplicity of the supply-side of art vis--vis marginal cost and the wealth of data on its quality characteristics make it possible to separately identify the markup and quality components of international relative prices for Chinese artwork. Through ...
Staff Reports , Paper 614

Report
Capital controls: a normative analysis
De Paoli, Bianca; Lipinska, Anna (2013)
Countries' concerns about the value of their currency have been studied and documented extensively in the literature. Capital controls can be?and often are?used as a tool to manage exchange rate fluctuations. This paper investigates whether countries can benefit from using such a tool. We develop a welfare-based analysis of whether (or, in fact, how) countries should tax international borrowing. Our results suggest that restricting international capital flows through the use of these taxes can be beneficial for individual countries, although it would limit cross-border pooling of risk. The ...
Staff Reports , Paper 600

Working Paper
The role of jumps in volatility spillovers in foreign exchange markets: meteor shower and heat waves revisited
Lahaye, Jerome; Neely, Christopher J. (2014-10-01)
This paper extends the previous literature on geographic (heat waves) and intertemporal (meteor showers) foreign exchange volatility transmission to characterize the role of jumps and cross-rate propagation. We employ heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) models to capture the quasi-long-memory properties of volatility and the Shapley-Owen R2 measure to quantify the contributions of components. We conclude that meteor showers are more influential than heat waves, that jumps play a modest but significant role in volatility transmission and that significant, bidirectional cross-rate volatility ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-034

Working Paper
Sovereign Debt Restructurings
Sanchez, Juan M.; Dvorkin, Maximiliano; Yurdagul, Emircan; Sapriza, Horacio (2018-06-25)
Sovereign debt crises involve debt restructurings characterized by a mix of face-value haircuts and maturity extensions. The prevalence of maturity extensions has been hard to reconcile with economic theory. We develop a model of endogenous debt restructuring that captures key facts of sovereign debt and restructuring episodes. While debt dilution pushes for negative maturity extensions, three factors are important in overcoming the effects of dilution and generating maturity extensions upon restructurings: income recovery after default, credit exclusion after restructuring, and regulatory ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-13

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