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Working Paper
Adverse Selection Dynamics in Privately-Produced Safe Debt Markets
Foley-Fisher, Nathan; Gorton, Gary; Verani, Stéphane
(2020-10-23)
Privately-produced safe debt is designed so that there is no adverse selection in trade. This is because no agent finds it profitable to produce private information about the debt’s backing and all agents know this (i.e., it is information-insensitive). But in some macro states, it becomes profitable for some agents to produce private information, and then the debt faces adverse selection when traded (i.e., it becomes information-sensitive). We empirically study these adverse selection dynamics in a very important asset class, collateralized loan obligations, a large symbiotic appendage of ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2020-088
Report
Trading by Professional Traders: An Experiment
Cipriani, Marco; De Filippis, Roberta; Guarino, Antonio; Kendall, Ryan
(2020-08-01)
We examine how professional traders behave in two financial market experiments; we contrast professional traders’ behavior to that of undergraduate students, the typical experimental subject pool. In our first experiment, both sets of participants trade an asset over multiple periods after receiving private information about its value. Second, participants play the Guessing Game. Finally, they play a novel, individual-level version of the Guessing Game and we collect data on their cognitive abilities, risk preferences, and confidence levels. We find three differences between traders and ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 939
Report
Alternative Trading Systems in the Corporate Bond Market
Kozora, Matthew L.; Mizrach, Bruce; Peppe, Matthew; Shachar, Or; Sokobin, Jonathan S.
(2020-08-01)
We investigate the trading of corporate bonds on alternative trading system (ATS) platforms. We draw a key distinction between request-for-quote (RFQ) and electronic communication network (ECN) trading protocols, which balance investors’ preference for immediacy and anonymity. Trades on ATS platforms are smaller and more likely to involve investment-grade bonds. Trades on ATS platforms are more probable for older, less actively traded bonds from smaller issues and for bonds traded by more dealers where inventory is high. Moreover, dealer participation on ATS platforms is associated with ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 938
Report
Anomalous bidding in short-term Treasury bill auctions
Garbade, Kenneth D.; Keane, Frank M.; Fleming, Michael J.
(2004-05-01)
We show that Treasury bill auction procedures create classes of price-equivalent discount rates for bills with fewer than seventy-two days to maturity. We argue that it is inefficient for market participants to bid at a discount rate that is not the minimum rate in its class. The inefficiency of bidding at a rate other than the minimum is related to a quantity shortfall rather than an unexploited profit opportunity. Auction results for weekly offerings of four-week bills and occasional offerings of cash management bills show that market participants frequently bid at inefficient rates. ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 184
Report
Are larger Treasury issues more liquid? Evidence from bill reopenings
Fleming, Michael J.
(2002)
This paper makes use of a natural experiment of the U.S. Treasury Department to examine the relationship between Treasury security issue size and liquidity. Treasury bills that were first issued with fifty-two weeks to maturity and then reopened at twenty-six weeks are shown to be more liquid than comparable maturity bills that were first issued with twenty-six weeks to maturity. The relationship is less pronounced when bills are on-the-run (the most recently auctioned bills of a given maturity) than when they are off-the-run, and persists when controlling for other factors that affect ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 145
Report
The Microstructure of China's Government Bond Market
Horan, Casidhe; Fleming, Michael J.; Bai, Jennie
(2013-05-01)
Although China now has one of the largest government bond markets in the world, the market has received relatively little attention and analysis. We describe the history and structure of the market and assess its functioning. We find that trading in individual bonds was historically sparse but has increased markedly in recent years. We find also that certain announcements of macroeconomic news, such as China?s producer price index (PPI) and manufacturing purchasing managers? index (PMI), have significant effects on yields, even when such yields are measured at a daily level. Despite the ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 622
Report
The microstructure of a U.S. Treasury ECN: the BrokerTec platform
Mizrach, Bruce; Fleming, Michael J.; Nguyen, Giang
(2009)
We assess the microstructure of the U.S. Treasury securities market following its migration to electronic trading. We model price discovery using a vector autoregression model of price and order flow. We show that both trades and limit orders affect price dynamics, suggesting that traders also choose limit orders to exploit their information. Moreover, while limit orders have smaller price impact, their greater variation contributes more to the variance of price updates. Lastly, we find increased price impact of trades and especially limit orders following major announcements (such as FOMC ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 381
Report
Time variation in asset price responses to macro announcements
Goldberg, Linda S.; Grisse, Christian
(2013-08-01)
Although the effects of economic news announcements on asset prices are well established, these relationships are unlikely to be stable. This paper documents the time variation in the responses of yield curves and exchange rates using high-frequency data from January 2000 through August 2011. Significant time variation in news effects is present for those announcements that have the largest effects on asset prices. The time variation in effects is explained by economic conditions, including the level of policy rates at the time of the news release, and risk conditions: Government bond yields ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 626
Report
Evaluating the information in the Federal Reserve stress tests
Kovner, Anna; Hirtle, Beverly; Flannery, Mark J.
(2015-10-01)
We present evidence that the Federal Reserve stress tests produce information about both the stress-tested bank holding companies and the overall state of the banking industry. Our evidence goes beyond a standard event study, which cannot differentiate between small abnormal returns and large, but opposite?signed, abnormal stock returns. We find that stress test disclosures are associated with significantly higher absolute abnormal returns, as well as higher abnormal trading volume. More levered and riskier holding companies seem to be more affected by the stress test information. We find no ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 744
Report
Price and size discovery in financial markets: evidence from the U.S. Treasury securities market
Fleming, Michael J.; Nguyen, Giang
(2013)
We study the workup protocol, an important size discovery mechanism in the U.S. Treasury securities market. We find that shocks in workup order flow explain 6-8 percent of the variation of returns on benchmark notes and, across maturities, contribute 10 percent to the variation of the yield curve level factor. Information related to proprietary client order flow is more likely to show up in workup trades, whereas information derived from public announcements is more likely to come through pre-workup (or ?lit?) trades. Our findings highlight how the nature of information affects the trade-off ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 624
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