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Jel Classification:G12 

Working Paper
Nothing is Certain Except Death and Taxes : The Lack of Policy Uncertainty from Expiring \"Temporary\" Taxes

What is the policy uncertainty surrounding expiring taxes? How uncertain are the approvals of routine extensions of temporary tax policies? To answer these questions, I use event studies to measure cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) for firms that claimed the U.S. research and development (R&D) tax credit from 1996-2015. In 1996, the U.S. R&D tax credit was statutorily temporary but was routinely extended ten times until 2015, when it was made permanent. I take the event dates as both when these ten extensions of the R&D tax credit were introduced into committee and when the extensions were ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-041

Working Paper
The Performance of International Equity Portfolios

This paper evaluates the performance of U.S. investors' portfolios in the equities of over 40 countries over a 25-year period. We find that these portfolios achieved a significantly higher Sharpe ratio than foreign benchmarks, especially since 1990. We uncover three potential reasons for this success. First, U.S. investors abstained from momentum trading and instead sold past winners. Second, conditional performance tests provide no evidence that the superior (unconditional) performance owed to private information, suggesting that the successful exploitation of publicly available information ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 817

Working Paper
Asymmetric Information, Dynamic Debt Issuance, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads

We propose a tractable model of a firm?s dynamic debt and equity issuance policies in the presence of asymmetric information. Because ?investment-grade? firms can access debt markets, managers who observe a bad private signal can both conceal this information and shield shareholders from infusing capital into the firm by issuing new debt to service existing debt, thus avoiding default. The implication is that the ?asymmetric information channel? can generate jumps to default (from the creditors? perspective) only for those "high-yield" firms that have exhausted their ability to borrow. ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2019-8

Working Paper
A sentiment-based explanation of the forward premium puzzle

This paper presents a sentiment-based explanation of the forward premium puzzle. Agents over- or underestimate the growth rate of the economy. All else equal, when perceived domestic growth is higher than perceived foreign growth, the domestic interest rate is higher than the foreign interest rate. At the same time, an econometrician would expect an increase in the home currency value. Together, the model with investor misperception can account for the forward premium puzzle.> ; In addition, it helps explain the low correlation of consumption growth differentials and exchange rate growth and ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 90

Working Paper
Institutional Herding and Its Price Impact : Evidence from the Corporate Bond Market

Among growing concerns about potential financial stability risks posed by the asset management industry, herding has been considered as an important risk amplification channel. In this paper, we examine the extent to which institutional investors herd in their trading of U.S. corporate bonds and quantify the price impact of such herding behavior. We find that, relative to what is documented for the equity market, the level of institutional herding is much higher in the corporate bond market, particularly among speculative-grade bonds. In addition, mutual funds have become increasingly likely ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2016-091

Working Paper
The cost of business cycles with heterogeneous trading technologies

This paper investigates the welfare cost of business cycles in an economy where households have heterogeneous trading technologies. In an economy with aggregate risk, the different portfolio choices induced by heterogeneous trading technologies lead to a larger consumption inequality in equilibrium, while this source of inequality vanishes in an economy without business cycles. Put simply, the heterogeneity in trading technologies amplifies the effect of aggregate output fluctuation on consumption inequality. The welfare cost of business cycles is, therefore, larger in such an economy. In the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-15

Working Paper
Bubbles and Leverage: A Simple and Unified Approach

In this paper, we lay out a simple framework that captures much of what the theoretical literature has to say about the role of credit in systemically important asset booms and busts. In addition, we suggest ways in which to incorporate physical investment in the bubble asset as well as monetary policy.
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2013-21

Working Paper
Household Financial Distress and the Burden of ‘Aggregate’ Shocks

In this paper we show that household-level financial distress (FD) varies greatly and can increase vulnerability to economic shocks. To do this, we establish three facts: (i) regions in the United States vary significantly in their “FD-intensity,” measured either by how much additional credit households can access or how delinquent they are on debts, (ii) shocks that are typically viewed as “aggregate” in nature hit geographic areas quite differently, and (iii) FD is an economic “pre-existing condition”: the share of an aggregate shock borne by a region is positively correlated ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 20-13

Report
The Long and Short of It: The Post-Crisis Corporate CDS Market

We establish key stylized facts about the post-crisis evolution of trading and pricing of credit default swaps. Using supervisory contract-level data, we document that dealers become net buyers of credit protection starting in the second half of 2014, both through reducing the amount of protection they sell in the single-name market and through switching to buying protection in the index market. More generally, we argue that considering simultaneous positions in different types of credit derivatives is crucial for understanding institutions? participation decisions and how these decisions ...
Staff Reports , Paper 879

Working Paper
Cross-Sectional Factor Dynamics and Momentum Returns

This paper proposes and implements an inter-temporal model wherein aggregate consumption and asset-specific dividend growths jointly move with two mean-reverting state variables. Consumption beta varies through time and cross sectionally due to variation in half-lives and stationary volatilities of the dividend signals. Winner (Loser) stocks exhibit high (low) half-lives and stationary volatilities, and thus exhibit high (low) consumption beta commanding high (low) risk-premium. The model also rationalizes the "momentum crashes" phenomenon discussed in Daniel and Moskowitz (2014). High ...
Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers , Paper RPA 15-2

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