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Working Paper
Bubbles and Leverage: A Simple and Unified Approach
Bogusz, Theodore (2013-11-13)
In this paper, we lay out a simple framework that captures much of what the theoretical literature has to say about the role of credit in systemically important asset booms and busts. In addition, we suggest ways in which to incorporate physical investment in the bubble asset as well as monetary policy.
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2013-21

Report
Evaluating regulatory reform: banks’ cost of capital and lending
Kovner, Anna; Van Tassel, Peter (2018-06-01)
We examine the eﬀects of regulatory changes on banks’ cost of capital and lending. Since the passage of the Dodd-Frank Act, the value-weighted CAPM cost of capital for banks has averaged 10.5 percent and declined by more than 4 percent on a within-ﬁrm basis relative to ﬁnancial crisis highs. This decrease was much greater for the largest banks subject to new regulation than for other banks and ﬁrms. Over a longer twenty-year horizon, we ﬁnd that changes in the systematic risk of bank equity have real economic consequences: increases in banks’ cost of capital are associated with ...
Staff Reports , Paper 854

Working Paper
Price Discovery in the U.S. Treasury Cash Market: On Principal Trading Firms and Dealers
Harkrader, James Collin; Puglia, Michael (2020-11-16)
We explore the following question: does the trading activity of registered dealers on Treasury interdealer broker (IDB) platforms differ from that of principal trading firms (PTFs), and if so, how and to what effect on market liquidity? To do so, we use a novel dataset that combines Treasury cash transaction reports from FINRAâ€™s Trade Reporting and Compliance Engine (TRACE) and publicly available limit order book data from BrokerTec. We find that trades conducted in a limit order book setting have high permanent price impact when a PTF is the passive party, playing the role of ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-096

Working Paper
Frictional Intermediation in Over-the-Counter Markets
Hugonnier, Julien; Lester, Benjamin; Weill, Pierre-Olivier (2019-01-31)
We extend Duffie, G?arleanu, and Pedersen?s (2005) search theoretic model of over-the-counter (OTC) asset markets, allowing for a decentralized inter-dealer market with arbitrary heterogeneity in dealers? valuations or inventory costs. We develop a solution technique that makes the model fully tractable and allows us to derive, in closed form, theoretical formulas for key statistics analyzed in empirical studies of the intermediation process in OTC markets. A calibration to the market for municipal securities reveals that the model can generate trading patterns and prices that are ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-10

Working Paper
Exchange rates and monetary policy
Stavrakeva, Vania; Tang, Jenny (2015-10-29)
In this paper we confront the data with the financial-market folk wisdom that monetary policy is one of the key drivers of nominal exchange rates. Focusing on measures of conventional and unconventional monetary policy, we find that monetary policy surprises and changes in expectations about future monetary policy can explain a sizable fraction of the variation in exchange rate changes for certain currency pairs. However, our results show that expected excess returns account for most of this variation. We also find that the importance unconventional monetary policy plays for explaining ...
Working Papers , Paper 15-16

Working Paper
Bayesian Estimation of Time-Changed Default Intensity Models
Szerszen, Pawel J.; Gordy, Michael B. (2015-01-06)
We estimate a reduced-form model of credit risk that incorporates stochastic volatility in default intensity via stochastic time-change. Our Bayesian MCMC estimation method overcomes nonlinearity in the measurement equation and state-dependent volatility in the state equation. We implement on firm-level time-series of CDS spreads, and find strong in-sample evidence of stochastic volatility in this market. Relative to the widely-used CIR model for the default intensity, we find that stochastic time-change offers modest benefit in fitting the cross-section of CDS spreads at each point in time, ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-2

Working Paper
Corporate Bond Liquidity During the COVID-19 Crisis
Lester, Benjamin; Weill, Pierre-Olivier; Kargar, Mahyar; Lindsay, David; Liu, Shuo; Zuniga, Diego (2020-11-12)
We study liquidity conditions in the corporate bond market during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the effects of the unprecedented interventions by the Federal Reserve. We find that, at the height of the crisis, liquidity conditions deteriorated substantially, as dealers appeared unwilling to absorb corporate debt onto their balance sheets. In particular, we document that the cost of risky-principal trades increased by a factor of five, forcing traders to shift to slower, agency trades. The announcements of the Federal Reserve’s interventions coincided with substantial improvements in trading ...
Working Papers , Paper WP 20-43

Working Paper
Consumption in the Great Recession: The Financial Distress Channel
Athreya, Kartik B.; Mather, Ryan; Mustre-del-Rio, Jose; Sanchez, Juan M. (2019-09-17)
During the Great Recession, the collapse of consumption across the U.S. varied greatly but systematically with house-price declines. We find that financial distress among U.S. households amplified the sensitivity of consumption to house-price shocks. We uncover two essential facts: (1) the decline in house prices led to an increase in household financial distress prior to the decline in income during the recession, and (2) at the zip-code level, the prevalence of financial distress prior to the recession was positively correlated with house-price declines at the onset of the recession. Using ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-25

Working Paper
Options, Equity Risks, and the Value of Capital Structure Adjustments
Borochin, Paul; Yang, Jie (2016-10)
We use exchange-traded options to identify risks relevant to capital structure adjustments in firms. These forward-looking market-based risk measures provide significant explanatory power in predicting net leverage changes in excess of accounting data. They matter most during contractionary periods and for growth firms. We form market-based indices that capture firms' magnitudes of, and propensity for, net leverage increases. Firms with larger predicted leverage increases outperform firms with lower predicted increases by 3.1% to 3.9% per year in buy-and-hold abnormal returns. Finally, ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2016-097

Working Paper
Institutional Herding and Its Price Impact : Evidence from the Corporate Bond Market
Cai, Fang; Han, Song; Li, Dan; Li, Yi (2016-10)
Among growing concerns about potential financial stability risks posed by the asset management industry, herding has been considered as an important risk amplification channel. In this paper, we examine the extent to which institutional investors herd in their trading of U.S. corporate bonds and quantify the price impact of such herding behavior. We find that, relative to what is documented for the equity market, the level of institutional herding is much higher in the corporate bond market, particularly among speculative-grade bonds. In addition, mutual funds have become increasingly likely ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2016-091

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