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Working Paper
The Response of Stock Market Volatility to Futures-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Shocks
In this paper, we investigate the dynamic response of stock market volatility to changes in monetary policy. Using a vector autoregressive model, our findings reveal a significant and asymmetric response of stock returns and volatility to monetary policy shocks. Although the increase in the volatility risk premium, futures-trading volume, and leverage appear to contribute to a short-term increase in volatility, the longer-term dynamics of volatility are dominated by monetary policy's effect on fundamentals. The estimation results from a bivariate VAR-GARCH model suggest that the Fed does not respond to the stock market at a high frequency, but they also suggest that market participants' uncertainty regarding the monetary stance affects stock market volatility.
AUTHORS: Gospodinov, Nikolay; Jamali, Ibrahim
DATE: 2014-08-01

Working Paper
Financial Intermediation Chains in an OTC Market
This paper analyzes financial intermediation chains in a search model with an endogenous intermediary sector. We show that the chain length and price dispersion among interdealer trades are decreasing in search cost, search speed, and market size but increasing in investors' trading needs. Using data from the U.S. corporate bond market, we find evidence broadly consistent with these predictions. Moreover, as search speed approaches infinity, the search equilibrium does not always converge to the centralized-market equilibrium: prices and allocation converge, but the trading volume might not. Finally, we analyze the multiplicity and stability of the equilibrium.
AUTHORS: Shen, Ji; Wei, Bin; Yan, Hongjun
DATE: 2018-12-01

Working Paper
Liquidity backstops and dynamic debt runs
Liquidity backstops have important implications for financial stability. In this paper, we provide a microfoundation for the important role of liquidity backstops in mitigating runs (or, conversely, the role of the lack of liquidity backstops in exacerbating runs) based on a dynamic model of debt runs. We focus on the municipal bond markets for variable rate demand obligations (VRDOs) and auction rate securities (ARS). The different experiences in these markets during the recent financial crisis of 2007?09 provide a natural experiment to identify the value of a liquidity backstop in mitigating runs. Through structural estimation of the model, we show that the value of a liquidity backstop is about 14.5 basis points per annum. The results in this paper shed light on one central difference between shadow banks and traditional banks in terms of their differential access to public liquidity backstops.
AUTHORS: Wei, Bin; Yue, Vivian Z.
DATE: 2015-12-01

Working Paper
From Organization to Activity in the US Collateralized Interbank Market
This paper studies and connects market organization and activity in the US collateralized interbank market using an assumption-neutral approach. We apply cluster analysis to aggregate activity factors suggested by prior studies to support two market organizations: three-tier and core-periphery. We find that four bank-specific factors and one economic conditions factor explain interbank activity for both alternative organizations. We also find evidence that the interbank market organization affects institutions? borrowing and lending. While both organizations moderate interbank activity, the three-tier structure detects distinct market operations which are not represented in the core-periphery structure.
AUTHORS: Oet, Mikhail V.; Ong, Stephen J.
DATE: 2015-12-14

Working Paper
Flight to What? — Dissecting Liquidity Shortages in the Financial Crisis
We endogenize the liquidity and the quality of private assets in a tractable incomplete-market model with heterogeneous agents. The model decomposes the convenience yield of government bond into a "liquidity premium" (flight to liquidity) and a "safety premium" (flight to quality) over the business cycle. When calibrated to match the U.S. aggregate output fluctuations and bond premiums, the model reveals that a sharp reduction in the quality, instead of the liquidity, of private assets was the culprit of the recent financial crisis, consistent with the perception that it was the subprime mortgage problem that triggered the Great Recession. Since the provision of public liquidity endogenously affects the provision of private liquidity, our model indicates that excessive injection of public liquidity during financial crisis can be welfare reducing under either conventional or unconventional policies. In particular, too much intervention for too long can depress capital investment.
AUTHORS: Dong, Feng; Wen, Yi
DATE: 2017-08-01

Working Paper
Intergenerational Linkages in Household Credit
We document economically important correlations between children?s future credit outcomes and their parents? credit risk scores, default, and the extent of credit constraints ? intergenerational linkages in household credit. Using observations on siblings, we find that the linkages are due to unobserved household heterogeneity rather than parental credit conditions directly affecting children?s credit outcomes. In particular, in the sample of siblings, there is no correlation between parental and child credit attributes after controlling for household fixed effects. The linkages are stronger in cities with lower intergenerational income mobility, implying that common factors drive both. Finally, existing measures of state-level educational policy interventions appear to have limited effects on the strength of intergenerational linkages.
AUTHORS: Kudlyak, Marianna; Ghent, Andra C.
DATE: 2015-11-05

Journal Article
The economics of small open economies
In recent years, the threat of sovereign debt crises has led investors to demand higher yields on bonds issued by heavily indebted developed countries such as Greece, Ireland, Spain, and Portugal. Pablo Guerron-Quintana explains why small open economies in both the developed and developing worlds share certain funding constraints and considers what lessons developed economies may draw from the experiences of their developing counterparts.
AUTHORS: Guerron-Quintana, Pablo
DATE: 2013-10

Report
A general approach to integrated risk management with skewed, fat-tailed risks
The goal of integrated risk management in a financial institution is to measure and manage risk and capital across a range of diverse business activities. This requires an approach for aggregating risk types (market, credit, and operational) whose distributional shapes vary considerably. In this paper, we use the method of copulas to construct the joint risk distribution for a typical large, internationally active bank. This technique allows us to incorporate realistic marginal distributions that capture some of the essential empirical features of these risks-such as skewness and fat tails-while allowing for a rich dependence structure. ; We explore the impact of business mix and inter-risk correlations on total risk, whether measured by value at risk or expected shortfall. We find that given a risk type, total risk is more sensitive to differences in business mix or risk weights than it is to differences in inter-risk correlations. A complex relationship between volatility and fat tails exists in determining the total risk: whether they offset or reinforce each other will depend on the setting. The choice of copula (normal versus student-t), which determines the level of tail dependence, has a more modest effect on risk. We then compare the copula-based method with several conventional approaches to computing risk, each of which may be thought of as an approximation. One easily implemented approximation, which uses empirical correlations and quantile estimates, tracks the copula approach surprisingly well. In contrast, the additive approximation, which assumes no diversification benefit, typically overestimates risk by about 30 to 40 percent.
AUTHORS: Rosenberg, Joshua V.; Schuermann, Til
DATE: 2004-05-01

Report
Trading Partners in the Interbank Lending Market
There is substantial heterogeneity in the structure of trading relationships in the U.S. overnight interbank lending market: Some banks rely on spot transactions, while a majority form stable, concentrated borrowing relationships to hedge liquidity needs. Borrowers pay lower prices and borrow more from their concentrated lenders. When there are exogenous shocks to liquidity supply (days with low GSE lending), concentrated lenders insulate borrowers from the shocks without charging significantly higher interest rates.
AUTHORS: Schoar, Antoinette; Afonso, Gara M.; Kovner, Anna
DATE: 2013

Report
Reference guide to U.S. repo and securities lending markets
This paper is intended to serve as a reference guide on U.S. repo and securities lending markets. It begins by presenting the institutional structure, and then describes the market landscape, the role of the participants, and other characteristics, including how repo and securities lending activity has changed since the 2007-09 financial crisis. The paper then discusses vulnerabilities in the repo and short-term wholesale funding markets and the efforts to limit potential systemic risks. It next provides an overview of existing data sources on securities financing markets and highlights specific shortcomings related to data standards and data quality. Lastly, the authors discuss a near-term agenda to help fill some of the data gaps in repo and securities lending markets.
AUTHORS: McCaughrin, Rebecca; Baklanova, Viktoria; Copeland, Adam
DATE: 2015-09-01

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