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Jel Classification:G10 

Working Paper
Credit Default Swaps in General Equilibrium: Spillovers, Credit Spreads, and Endogenous Default

This paper highlights two new effects of credit default swap markets (CDS) in a general equilibrium setting. First, when firms' cash flows are correlated, CDSs impact the cost of capital{credit spreads{and investment for all firms, even those that are not CDS reference entities. Second, when firms internalize the credit spread changes, the incentive to issue safe rather than risky bonds is fundamentally altered. Issuing safe debt requires a transfer of profits from good states to bad states to ensure full repayment. Alternatively, issuing risky bonds maximizes profits in good states at the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2016-042

Working Paper
Liquidity Networks, Interconnectedness, and Interbank Information Asymmetry

Network analysis has demonstrated that interconnectedness among market participants results in spillovers, amplifies or absorbs shocks, and creates other nonlinear effects that ultimately affect market health. In this paper, we propose a new directed network construct, the liquidity network, to capture the urgency to trade by connecting the initiating party in a trade to the passive party. Alongside the conventional trading network connecting sellers to buyers, we show both network types complement each other: Liquidity networks reveal valuable information, particularly when information ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2021-017

Working Paper
Information in Financial Markets : Who Gets It First?

I compare the timing of information acquisition among institutional investors and sell-side analysts, and I show that hedge fund trades predict the direction of subsequent analyst ratings change reports while other investors' trades do not. In addition, hedge funds reverse trades after analyst reports, while other investors follow the analysts. Finally, I show that hedge funds perform best among stocks with high analyst coverage. These results suggest that hedge funds have superior information acquisition skills, and that analysts assist hedge funds in exploiting information acquisition ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-023

Working Paper
The Shift from Active to Passive Investing : Potential Risks to Financial Stability?

The past couple of decades have seen a significant shift in assets from active to passive investment strategies. We examine the potential effects of this shift for financial stability through four different channels: (1) effects on investment funds’ liquidity transformation and redemption risks; (2) passive strategies that amplify market volatility; (3) increases in asset-management industry concentration; and (4) the effects on valuations, volatility, and comovement of assets that are included in indexes. Overall, the shift from active to passive investment strategies appears to be ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-060r1

Report
Trends in credit market arbitrage

Market participants and policymakers alike were surprised by the large, prolonged dislocations in credit market arbitrage trades during the second half of 2015 and the first quarter of 2016. In this paper, we examine three explanations proposed by market participants: increased idiosyncratic risks, strategic positioning by some market participants, and regulatory changes. We find some evidence of increased idiosyncratic risk during the relevant period but limited evidence of asset managers changing their positioning in derivative products. While we cannot quantify the contribution of these ...
Staff Reports , Paper 784

Report
Arbitrage-free affine models of the forward price of foreign currency

Forward foreign exchange contracts embed not only expected depreciation but also a sizable premium, which complicates inferences about anticipated returns. This study derives arbitrage-free affine forward currency models (AFCMs) with closed-form expressions for both unobservable variables. Model calibration to forward term structures of eleven U.S.-dollar currency pairs from the mid-to-late 1990s through early 2014 fits the data closely and suggests that the premium is indeed nonzero and variable, but not to the degree implied by previous econometric studies.
Staff Reports , Paper 665

Report
Reference guide to U.S. repo and securities lending markets

This paper is intended to serve as a reference guide on U.S. repo and securities lending markets. It begins by presenting the institutional structure, and then describes the market landscape, the role of the participants, and other characteristics, including how repo and securities lending activity has changed since the 2007-09 financial crisis. The paper then discusses vulnerabilities in the repo and short-term wholesale funding markets and the efforts to limit potential systemic risks. It next provides an overview of existing data sources on securities financing markets and highlights ...
Staff Reports , Paper 740

Report
Betting against beta (and gamma) using government bonds

Purportedly consistent with ?risk parity? (RP) asset allocation, recent studies document compelling ?low risk? trading strategies that exploit a persistently negative relation between Sharpe ratios (SRs) and maturity along the U.S. Treasury (UST) term structure. This paper extends this evidence on betting against beta with government bonds (BABgov) in four respects. First, out-of-sample tests suggest that excess returns may have waned somewhat recently and that the pattern seems most pronounced for USTs given data on ten other previously unexamined government bond markets. Second, BABgov ...
Staff Reports , Paper 708

Journal Article
The Long and Short of It: The Post-Crisis Corporate CDS Market

The authors establish key stylized facts about the post-crisis evolution of trading and pricing of credit default swaps. Using supervisory contract-level data, they show that dealers became net buyers of credit protection starting in the second half of 2014, both through reducing the amount of protection they sell in the single-name market and switching to buying protection in the index market. More generally, they argue that considering simultaneous positions in different types of credit derivatives is crucial for understanding institutions’ decisions to participate in these markets and ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 26 , Issue 3 , Pages 49

Working Paper
Investing in the Batteries and Vehicles of the Future: A View Through the Stock Market

A large number of companies operating in the EV and battery supply chain have listed on a major U.S. stock exchange in recent years. This paper investigates 1) how these companies’ stock returns are related to systematic risk factors that can explain movements in the stock market and 2) how these companies’ idiosyncratic returns are related to one another. To do so, I compile a unique data set of intradaily stock returns that spans the supply chain, including companies focused on the mining of battery and EV-related critical minerals, advanced battery technology, lithium-ion battery ...
Working Papers , Paper 2314

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