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Discussion Paper
Everything You Wanted to Know about the Tri-Party Repo Market, but Didn't Know to Ask
Copeland, Adam; Martin, Antoine; Brickler, Lucinda (2011-04-11)
The tri-party repo market is a large and important market where securities dealers find short-term funding for a substantial portion of their own and their clients’ assets. The Task Force on Tri-Party Repo Infrastructure (Task Force) noted in its report that “(a)t several points during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, the tri-party repo market took on particular importance in relation to the failures and near-failures of Countrywide Securities, Bear Stearns, and Lehman Brothers.” In this post, we provide an overview of this market and discuss several reforms currently under way ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20110411

Discussion Paper
Falling Oil Prices and Global Saving
Klitgaard, Thomas; Russo, Patrick (2015-06-24)
The rise in oil prices from near $30 per barrel in 2000 to around $110 per barrel in mid-2014 was a dramatic reallocation of global income to oil producers. So what did oil producers do with this bounty? Trade data show that they spent about half of the increase in total export revenues on imports and the other half to buy foreign assets. The drop in oil prices will unwind this process. Oil-importing countries will gain from lower oil bills, but they will also see a decline in their exports to oil-producing countries and in purchases of their assets by investors in these countries. Indeed, ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150624

Discussion Paper
The Odd Behavior of Repo Haircuts during the Financial Crisis
Copeland, Adam; Martin, Antoine (2012-09-17)
Since the financial crisis began, there’s been substantial debate on the role of haircuts in U.S. repo markets. (The haircut is the value of the collateral in excess of the value of the cash exchanged in the repo; see our blog post for more on repo markets.) In an influential paper, Gorton and Metrick show that haircuts increased rapidly during the crisis, a phenomenon they characterize as a general “run on repo.” Consequently, some policymakers and academics have considered whether regulating haircuts might help stabilize the repo markets, for example, by setting a minimum level so ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20120917

Discussion Paper
The 2022 Spike in Corporate Security Settlement Fails
Fleming, Michael J.; Shachar, Or; Van Tassel, Peter (2023-04-10)
Settlement fails in corporate securities increased sharply in 2022, reaching levels not seen since the 2007-09 financial crisis. As a fraction of trading volume, fails that involve primary dealers reached an all-time high in the week of March 23, 2022. In this post, we investigate the 2022 spike in settlement fails for corporate securities and discuss potential drivers for this increase, including trading volume, corporate issuance, fails in bond ETFs, and operational problems.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230410

Report
Physical Climate Risk Factors and an Application to Measuring Insurers’ Climate Risk Exposure
Zeng, Xuran; Jung, Hyeyoon; Ge, Shan; Engle, Robert (2023-07-01)
We construct a novel physical risk factor using a portfolio of REITs, long on those with properties highly exposed to climate risk and short on those with less exposure. Combined with a transition risk factor, we assess U.S. insurers’ climate risk through operations and $13 trillion in asset holdings. Estimating dynamic climate betas, we find higher stock return sensitivity to the physical risk among insurers operating in riskier regions and to transition risk among those holding more brown assets. Using these betas, we calculate capital shortfalls under climate stress scenarios, offering ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1066

Discussion Paper
Did the Fed’s Term Auction Facility Work?
Sarkar, Asani; McAndrews, James J.; Wang, Zhenyu (2011-10-11)
The Federal Reserve introduced the Term Auction Facility (TAF) in December 2007 to provide term loans to banks during the recent financial crisis. In this post, we report on the effectiveness of the TAF during the early stages of the crisis. We find that the TAF was associated with a decrease in the “liquidity premium,” one component of a bank’s borrowing cost. In other words, the TAF worked as intended.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20111011

Discussion Paper
The Tri-Party Repo Market Like You Have Never Seen It Before
McLaughlin, Susan; Adenbaum, Jacob; Martin, Antoine (2015-10-19)
The tri-party repo market is a large and important market where securities dealers find a substantial amount of short-term funding. Despite its importance, this market was very opaque before the crisis. Since March 2010, in accordance with recommendation 13 of the Task Force on Tri-Party Repo Infrastructure Reform report, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has made monthly data on the tri-party repo market available to the public. Today, with our new interactive tool, there is a whole new way to view the market and its evolution. You can make your own charts, looking at volumes for specific ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20151019b

Working Paper
The cyclicality of (bilateral) capital inflows and outflows
Davis, J. Scott (2015-08-01)
Recent research has shown that gross capital inflows and outflows are positively correlated and highly procyclical. This poses a puzzle since most theory predicts that capital inflows and outflows should be negatively correlated, and while capital inflows should be procyclical, capital outflows should be countercyclical. This previous work has examined the behavior of aggregate capital inflows and outflows (capital flows between a country and the rest of the world). This paper shows that bilateral capital inflows and outflows (flows between a pair of countries) are also positively correlated ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 247

Discussion Paper
Credit Market Arbitrage and Regulatory Leverage
Boyarchenko, Nina; Gupta, Pooja; Steele, Nick; Yen, Jacqueline (2017-01-11)
In a companion post, we examined the recent trends in arbitraged-based measures of liquidity in the cash bond and credit default swap (CDS) markets. In this post, we turn to the mechanics of the CDS-bond arbitrage trade and explore how the costs and profitability of such trades might be affected by the finalization of the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) rule in September 2014.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20170111

Discussion Paper
Factors that Affect Bank Stability
Yorulmazer, Tanju; Eisenbach, Thomas M. (2014-02-26)
In a previous Liberty Street Economics post, we introduced a framework for thinking about the risks banks face. In particular, we distinguished between asset return risk and funding risk that can interact and cause a bank to fail. In our framework, a bank can fail for two reasons: 1-Low asset returns: Fundamental insolvency due to erosion of equity by low asset returns that don’t cover a bank’s debt burden. 2-Loss of funding: Costly liquidation of assets that erode equity.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140226

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