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Working Paper
Intellectual Property, Tariffs, and International Trade Dynamics
Waddle, Andrea L.; Mandelman, Federico S. (2019-05-01)
The emergence of global value chains not only leads to a magnification of trade in intermediate inputs but also to an extensive technology diffusion among the different production units involved in arms-length relationships. In this context, the lack of enforcement of intellectual property rights has recently become a highly controversial subject of debate in the context of the China-U.S. trade negotiations. This paper analyzes the strategic interaction of tariff policies and the enforcement of intellectual property rights within a quantitative general equilibrium framework. Results indicate ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2019-10

Working Paper
Nonbank Lenders as Global Shock Absorbers: Evidence from US Monetary Policy Spillovers
Meisenzahl, Ralf R.; Peydró, José-Luis; Elliott, David (2023-08)
We show that nonbank lenders act as global shock absorbers from US monetary policy spillovers. We exploit loan-level data from the global syndicated lending market and US monetary policy surprises. When US policy tightens, nonbanks increase dollar credit supply to non-US firms (relative to banks), mitigating the dollar credit reduction. This increase is stronger for riskier firms, proxied by emerging market firms, high-yield firms, or firms in countries with stronger capital inflow restrictions. However, firm-lender matching, zombie lending, fragile-nonbank lending, or periods of low vs ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2023-29

Working Paper
Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending
Minoiu, Camelia; Goldberg, Linda S.; Correa, Ricardo; di Giovanni, Julian (2024-10-18)
This paper uses U.S. credit register data and the 2018–19 Trade War to study the effects of uncertainty on domestic credit supply. Exploiting differences in banks' ex-ante exposure to trade uncertainty, we find that increased uncertainty is associated with a broad lending contraction across their customer firms. This result is consistent with banks responding to uncertainty with wait-and-see behaviors, where more exposed banks curtail risky exposures, reduce loan maturities, and adjust loan supply along both intensive and extensive margins. The lending contraction is larger for more ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2024-16

Discussion Paper
Global Supply Chains and U.S. Import Price Inflation
Amiti, Mary; Itskhoki, Oleg; Weinstein, David E. (2024-03-04)
Inflation around the world increased dramatically with the reopening of economies following COVID-19. After reaching a peak of 11 percent in the second quarter of 2021, world trade prices dropped by more than five percentage points by the middle of 2023. U.S. import prices followed a similar pattern, albeit with a lower peak and a deeper trough. In a new study, we investigate what drove these price movements by using information on the prices charged for products shipped from fifty-two exporters to fifty-two importers, comprising more than twenty-five million trade flows. We uncover several ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20240304

Working Paper
A Global Lending Channel Unplugged? Does U.S. Monetary Policy Affect Cross-border and Affiliate Lending by Global U.S. Banks?
Ongena, Steven; Temesvary, Judit; Owen, Ann L. (2018-02-02)
We examine how U.S. monetary policy affects the international activities of U.S. Banks. We access a rarely studied U.S. bank-level regulatory dataset to assess at a quarterly frequency how changes in the U.S. Federal funds rate (before the crisis) and quantitative easing (after the onset of the crisis) affects changes in cross-border claims by U.S. banks across countries, maturities and sectors, and also affects changes in claims by their foreign affiliates. We find robust evidence consistent with the existence of a potent global bank lending channel. In response to changes in U.S. monetary ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-008

Working Paper
How Does Fiscal Policy affect the Transmission of Monetary Policy into Cross-border Bank Lending? Cross-country Evidence
Pradhan, Swapan-Kumar; Takáts, Előd; Temesvary, Judit (2024-11-25)
We use a rarely accessed BIS database on bilateral cross-border bank claims by bank nationality to examine the interaction of monetary and fiscal policies. We find significant interactions: the transmission of the monetary policies of major currency issuers is significantly influenced by the fiscal stance of source (home) lending banking systems. Fiscal consolidation in a source country amplifies the effect of currency issuers' monetary policy on lending. For instance, a reduction in the German debt-to-GDP ratio amplifies the negative impact of US monetary policy tightening on USD-denominated ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1400

Journal Article
An international perspective on the recent behavior of inflation
De Pace, Pierangelo; Li, Li; Contessi, Silvio (2014)
Several commentators have been concerned about the possibility that the euro area may be experiencing disinflation with the risk of deflation. However, the euro area is not the only economy navigating the risky waters of low inflation. Several other advanced economies have recently experienced below-target inflation as well as some actual deflation. In this article, the authors collect data for nine advanced economies and document several facts about the behavior of inflation during the 2002-14 period. First, they show that the relationship between inflation rates and short-term rates ...
Review , Volume 96 , Issue 3 , Pages 267-294

Working Paper
The Prudential Use of Capital Controls and Foreign Currency Reserves
Bianchi, Javier; Lorenzoni, Guido (2021-11-12)
We provide a simple framework to study the prudential use of capital controls and currency reserves that have been explored in the recent literature. We cover the role of both pecuniary externalities and aggregate demand externalities. The model features a central policy dilemma for emerging economies facing large capital outflows: the choice between increasing the policy rate to stabilize the exchange rate and decreasing the policy rate to stabilize employment. Ex ante capital controls and reserve accumulation can help mitigate this dilemma. We use our framework to survey the recent ...
Working Papers , Paper 787

Working Paper
The Role of U.S. Monetary Policy in Global Banking Crises
Durdu, Bora; Martin, Alex; Zer, Ilknur (2019-05-28)
We examine the role of U.S. monetary policy in global financial stability by using a cross-country database spanning the period from 1870-2010 across 69 countries. U.S. monetary policy tightening increases the probability of banking crises for those countries with direct linkages to the U.S., either in the form of trade links or significant share of USD-denominated liabilities. Conversely, if a country is integrated globally, rather than having a direct exposure, the effect is ambiguous. One possible channel we identify is capital flows: If the correction in capital flows is disorderly (e.g., ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-039

Working Paper
Multinational Firms' Entry and Productivity: Some Aggregate Implications of Firm-level Heterogeneity
Contessi, Silvio (2010)
Despite the microeconomic evidence supporting the superior idiosyncratic productivity of multinational firms (MFN) and their affiliates, cross-country studies fail to find robust evidence of a positive relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and growth. In order to study the aggregate implications of MNF entry and production, I develop a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model with firm heterogeneity where MNF sort according to their own productivity. Entry and production of MNF contribute to aggregate productivity growth at decreasing rates over time but potentially crowd out ...
Working Papers , Paper 2010-043

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