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Working Paper
Get the Lowdown: The International Side of the Fall in the U.S. Natural Rate of Interest
Martinez-Garcia, Enrique (2020-10-22)
Much consideration has been given among scholars and policymakers to the decline in the U.S. natural rate of interest since the 2007 – 09 global financial crisis. In this paper, I investigate its determinants and drivers through the lens of the workhorse two-country New Keynesian model that captures the trade and technological interconnectedness of the U.S. with the rest of the world economy. Using Bayesian techniques, I bring the set of binding log-linearized equilibrium conditions from this model to the data, but augmented with survey-based forecasts in order to align the solution with ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 403

Report
The emerging market economies in times of taper-talk and actual tapering
Diez, Federico J. (2014-11-14)
The emerging market economies (EME) experienced financial distress during two recent periods, both linked to the prospect of the Federal Reserve starting to slow its asset purchases. This policy change was expected to reverse the capital flows directed to the EME. Despite this aggregate effect, a closer analysis shows that there were significant differences across the EME during the time when talk of the upcoming taper began and the period when the policy was implemented. The author makes use of the literature on currency crises to analyze the different cross-country responses and to identify ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 14-6

Report
The role of consumption substitutability in the international transmission of shocks
Tille, Cedric (1999-03-04)
This paper develops a general framework to analyze the welfare consequences of monetary and fiscal shocks in an open economy, focusing on the role of the degree of substitutability between goods produced in different countries. We find that an expansionary shock that would be beneficial in a closed economy can have an adverse "beggar-thyself" effect in the country where it takes place, or an adverse "beggar-thy-neighbor" effect on its neighbor. Such effects depend significantly on the degree of substitutability between goods produced in different countries, as well as the exact nature ...
Staff Reports , Paper 67

Report
International banking and cross-border effects of regulation: lessons from the United States
Goldberg, Linda S.; Berrospide, Jose M.; Niepmann, Friederike; Correa, Ricardo (2016-09-01)
Domestic prudential regulation can have unintended effects across borders and may be less effective in an environment where banks operate globally. Using U.S. micro-banking data for the first quarter of 2000 through the third quarter of 2013, this study shows that some regulatory changes indeed spill over. First, a foreign country?s tightening of limits on loan-to-value ratios and local currency reserve requirements increase lending growth in the United States through the U.S. branches and subsidiaries of foreign banks. Second, a foreign tightening of capital requirements shifts lending by ...
Staff Reports , Paper 793

Report
Liquidity risk and U.S. bank lending at home and abroad
Correa, Ricardo; Goldberg, Linda S.; Rice, Tara (2014-06-01)
While the balance sheet structure of U.S. banks influences how they respond to liquidity risks, the mechanisms for the effects on and consequences for lending vary widely across banks. We demonstrate fundamental differences across banks without foreign affiliates versus those with foreign affiliates. Among the nonglobal banks (those without a foreign affiliate), cross-sectional differences in response to liquidity risk depend on the banks? shares of core deposit funding. By contrast, differences across global banks (those with foreign affiliates) are associated with ex ante liquidity ...
Staff Reports , Paper 676

Report
Is the integration of world asset markets necessarily beneficial in the presence of monetary shocks?
Tille, Cedric (2000-11-01)
This paper evaluates the consequences of the integration of international asset markets when goods markets are characterized by price rigidities. Using an open economy general equilibrium model with volatility in the money markets, we show that such an integration is not universally beneficial. The country with the more volatile shocks will benefit whereas the country where the volatility of shocks is moderate will suffer. The welfare effects reflect changes in the terms of trade that occur because forward looking price setters adjust to the changes in exchange rate volatility brought about ...
Staff Reports , Paper 114

Report
Liquidity traps, capital flows
Acharya, Sushant; Bengui, Julien (2016-01-01)
Motivated by debates surrounding international capital flows during the Great Recession, we conduct a positive and normative analysis of capital flows when a region of the global economy experiences a liquidity trap. Capital flows reduce inefficient output fluctuations in this region by inducing exchange rate movements that reallocate expenditure toward the goods it produces. Restricting capital mobility hampers such an adjustment. From a global perspective, constrained efficiency entails subsidizing capital flows to address an aggregate demand externality associated with exchange rate ...
Staff Reports , Paper 765

Working Paper
Regionalization vs. globalization
Hirata, Hideaki; Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher (2013-01-01)
Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles played by the global, regional, and country-specific factors in explaining business cycles in a large sample of countries and regions over the period 1960?2010. We find that, since the mid-1980s, the importance of regional factors has increased markedly in explaining business cycles especially in regions that ...
Working Papers , Paper 2013-002

Working Paper
Multinational Firms' Entry and Productivity: Some Aggregate Implications of Firm-level Heterogeneity
Contessi, Silvio (2010)
Despite the microeconomic evidence supporting the superior idiosyncratic productivity of multinational firms (MFN) and their affiliates, cross-country studies fail to find robust evidence of a positive relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and growth. In order to study the aggregate implications of MNF entry and production, I develop a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model with firm heterogeneity where MNF sort according to their own productivity. Entry and production of MNF contribute to aggregate productivity growth at decreasing rates over time but potentially crowd out ...
Working Papers , Paper 2010-043

Working Paper
Bad Investments and Missed Opportunities? Capital Flows to Asia and Latin America, 1950-2007
Ohanian, Lee E.; Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina; Wright, Mark L. J. (2013-11-25)
After World War II, international capital flowed into slow-growing Latin America rather than fast-growing Asia. This is surprising as, everything else equal, fast growth should imply high capital returns. This paper develops a capital flow accounting framework to quantify the role of different factor market distortions in producing these patterns. Surprisingly, we find that distortions in labor markets ? rather than domestic or international capital markets ? account for the bulk of these flows. Labor market distortions that indirectly depress investment incentives by lowering equilibrium ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-38

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