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Working Paper
Switching Volatility in a Nonlinear Open Economy
http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/; Benchimol, Jonathan
(2020-05-28)
Uncertainty about an economy’s regime can change drastically around a crisis. An imported crisis such as the global financial crisis in the euro area highlights the effect of foreign shocks. Estimating an open-economy nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the euro area and the United States including Markov-switching volatility shocks, we show that these shocks were significant during the global financial crisis compared with periods of calm. We describe how U.S. shocks from both the real economy and financial markets affected the euro area economy and how bond ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 386
Working Paper
Get the Lowdown: The International Side of the Fall in the U.S. Natural Rate of Interest
Martinez-Garcia, Enrique
(2021-02-20)
I investigate the downward drift of U.S. interest rates from 1984:Q1 to 2019:Q4. For this, I bring the workhorse two-country New Keynesian model to data on the U.S. and an aggregate of its major trading partners using Bayesian techniques. I show that the U.S. natural (or equilibrium) interest rate recovered from the model has fallen more gradually than the long-run U.S. real rate, cushioned by productivity shocks. Since inflation expectations became well-anchored in the ‘90s, this implies that the continued interest rate decline is largely explained by the real rate tracking the natural ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 403
Working Paper
Get the Lowdown: The International Side of the Fall in the U.S. Natural Rate of Interest
Martinez-Garcia, Enrique
(2020-10-22)
Much consideration has been given among scholars and policymakers to the decline in the U.S. natural rate of interest since the 2007 – 09 global financial crisis. In this paper, I investigate its determinants and drivers through the lens of the workhorse two-country New Keynesian model that captures the trade and technological interconnectedness of the U.S. with the rest of the world economy. Using Bayesian techniques, I bring the set of binding log-linearized equilibrium conditions from this model to the data, but augmented with survey-based forecasts in order to align the solution with ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 403
Working Paper
Risk sharing in a world economy with uncertainty shocks
Kollmann, Robert
(2015-11-01)
This paper analyzes the effects of output volatility shocks and of risk appetite shocks on the dynamics of consumption, trade flows and the real exchange rate, in a two-country world with recursive preferences and complete financial markets. When the risk aversion coefficient exceeds the inverse of the intertemporal substitution elasticity, then an exogenous rise in a country?s output volatility triggers a wealth transfer to that country, in equilibrium; this raises its consumption, lowers its trade balance and appreciates its real exchange rate. The effects of risk appetite shocks resemble ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 258
Working Paper
International Capital Flows: Private Versus Public Flows in Developing and Developed Countries
Zhang, Jing; Kim, Yun Jung
(2020-11-13)
Empirically, net capital inflows are pro-cyclical in developed countries and counter-cyclical in developing countries. That said, private inflows are pro-cyclical and public in flows are counter-cyclical in both groups of countries. The dominance of private (public) in flows in developed (developing) countries drives the difference in total net inflows. We rationalize these patterns using a dynamic stochastic two-sector model of a small open economy facing borrowing constraints. Private agents over-borrow because of the pecuniary externality arising from constraints. The government saves ...
Working Paper Series
, Paper WP-2020-27
Working Paper
Stagflation and Topsy-Turvy Capital Flows
Coulibaly, Louphou; Bengui, Julien
(2023-01-26)
Are unregulated capital flows excessive during a stagflation episode? We argue that they likely are, owing to a macroeconomic externality operating through the economy’s supply side. Inflows raise domestic wages through a wealth effect on labor supply and cause unwelcome upward pressure on marginal costs in countries where monetary policy is trying to drive down costs to stabilize inflation. Yet, market forces are likely to generate such inflows. Optimal capital flow management instead requires net outflows, suggesting topsy-turvy capital flows following markup shocks.
Working Papers
, Paper 795
Working Paper
The Domestic and International Effects of Interstate U.S. Banking
Cacciatore, Matteo; Ghironi, Fabio; Stebunovs, Viktors
(2014-08-01)
This paper studies the domestic and international effects of national bank market integration in a two-country, dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium model with endogenous producer entry. Integration of banking across localities reduces the degree of local monopoly power of financial intermediaries. The economy that implements this form of deregulation experiences increased producer entry, real exchange rate appreciation, and a current account deficit. The foreign economy experiences a long-run increase in GDP and consumption. Less monopoly power in financial intermediation results in less ...
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 1111
Working Paper
Domestic Policies and Sovereign Default
Espino, Emilio; Sanchez, Juan M.; Martin, Fernando M.; Kozlowski, Julian
(2022-05-23)
A model with two essential elements, sovereign default and distortionary fiscal and monetary policies, explains the interaction between sovereign debt, default risk and inflation in emerging countries. We derive conditions under which monetary policy is actively used to support fiscal policy and characterize the intertemporal tradeoffs that determine the choice of debt. We show that in response to adverse shocks to the terms of trade or productivity, governments reduce debt and deficits, and increase inflation and currency depreciation rates, matching the patterns observed in the data for ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2020-017
Working Paper
Innovation, Productivity, and Monetary Policy
Moran, Patrick Donnelly; Queraltó, Albert
(2017-11-22)
To what extent can monetary policy impact business innovation and productivity growth? We use a New Keynesian model with endogenous total factor productivity (TFP) to quantify the TFP losses due to the constraints on monetary policy imposed by the zero lower bound (ZLB) and the TFP benefits of tightening monetary policy more slowly than currently anticipated. In the model, monetary policy influences firms incentives to develop and implement innovations. We use evidence on the dynamic effects of R&D and monetary shocks to estimate key parameters and assess model performance. The model suggests ...
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 1217
Working Paper
Missing Import Price Changes and Low Exchange Rate Pass-Through
Vigfusson, Robert J.; Gagnon, Etienne; Mandel, Benjamin R.
(2012)
A large body of empirical work has found that exchange rate movements have only modest effects on inflation. However, the response of an import price index to exchange rate movements may be underestimated because some import price changes are missed when constructing the index. We investigate downward biases that arise when items experiencing a price change are especially likely to exit or to enter the index. We show that, in theoretical pricing models, entry and exit have different implications for the timing and size of these biases. Using Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) microdata, we ...
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 1040
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Taxes 1 items
Technology Choice 1 items
Time-Varying Parameters 1 items
Trade Collapse 1 items
Trade balance 1 items
Trade linkages 1 items
Trilemma 1 items
U.S. manufacturing 1 items
U.S. trade deficit 1 items
Uncovered interest parity 1 items
United Kingdom 1 items
Vaccination 1 items
Volatility 1 items
Volatility Shocks 1 items
Wages 1 items
aggregation 1 items
asset markets and risk sharing 1 items
banking sector 1 items
boom-bust cycles 1 items
border effects 1 items
business 1 items
business cycle dynamics 1 items
capital accumulation 1 items
carry trade 1 items
climate change 1 items
commodity 1 items
commodity prices 1 items
competitiveness 1 items
credit boom 1 items
credit markets 1 items
currency crises 1 items
currency mismatch 1 items
currency premium 1 items
cyclicality of net capital ows 1 items
demographics 1 items
depressions 1 items
deregulation 1 items
disasters 1 items
dollar currency pricing 1 items
dollar-priced trade 1 items
downward nominal wage rigidity 1 items
dynamic panel data model 1 items
dynamics 1 items
elasticity puzzle 1 items
emerging economies 1 items
emerging economy business cycles 1 items
endogenous firm entry 1 items
enterprises 1 items
equilibrium 1 items
event studies 1 items
exchange 1 items
exchange rate regimes 1 items
exchange rate sensitivity 1 items
extensive margin 1 items
external debt opportunistic defaults 1 items
external imbalances 1 items
external sector 1 items
financial access and participation 1 items
financial stability policy 1 items
fintech entry 1 items
firm debt 1 items
firm entry 1 items
fiscal deficits 1 items
fixed exchange rates 1 items
foreign debt 1 items
foreign investments 1 items
fuel subsidies 1 items
global real activity 1 items
global supply chains 1 items
global value chains 1 items
gold standard 1 items
government expenditures 1 items
growth 1 items
heterogeneity 1 items
heterogeneous agent 1 items
heterogeneous workers 1 items
house prices 1 items
import intensity 1 items
intellectual property rights 1 items
interest rate smoothing 1 items
international input-output linkages 1 items
international policy cooperation 1 items
international shipping 1 items
international transmission of shocks 1 items
interstate banking 1 items
item replacement 1 items
labor force participation 1 items
labor migration 1 items
leverage 1 items
limited commitment constraints 1 items
local projections 1 items
missing capital 1 items
money supply 1 items
multilateral trade 1 items
natural rates 1 items
news shocks 1 items
non-traded inflation 1 items
oil price 1 items
oil prices 1 items
onshoring 1 items
open economy macro 1 items
optimal monetary policy 1 items
optimal targeting rules 1 items
output growth 1 items
output volatility 1 items
pandemics 1 items
pecuniary externality 1 items
persistence 1 items
portfolio choice 1 items
price 1 items
price stickiness 1 items
pricing-to-market 1 items
private information 1 items
producer entry 1 items
public debt 1 items
rates 1 items
reaction functions 1 items
real interest rates 1 items
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