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Working Paper
Firm-Embedded Productivity and Cross-Country Income Differences
Alviarez, Vanessa; Cravino, Javier; Ramondo, Natalia (2020-10-13)
We measure the contribution of firm-embedded productivity to cross-country income differences. By firm-embedded productivity we refer to the components of productivity that differ across firms and that can be transferred internationally, such as blueprints, management practices, and intangible capital. Our approach relies on microlevel data on the cross-border operations of multinational enterprises (MNEs). We compare the market shares of the exact same MNE in different countries and document that they are about four times larger in developing than in high-income countries. This finding ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 39

Report
Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime-Switching Approach
Benigno, Gianluca; Foerster, Andrew T.; Otrok, Christopher; Rebucci, Alessandro (2020-10-01)
We estimate a workhorse dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with an occasionally binding borrowing constraint. First, we propose a new speciﬁcation of the occasionally binding constraint, where the transition between the unconstrained and constrained states is a stochastic function of the leverage level and the constraint multiplier. This speciﬁcation maps into an endogenous regime-switching model. Second, we develop a general perturbation method for the solution of such a model. Third, we estimate the model with Bayesian methods to ﬁt Mexico’s business cycle and ...
Staff Reports , Paper 944

Working Paper
The International Consequences of Bretton Woods Capital Controls and the Value of Geopolitical Stability
Ohanian, Lee E.; Van Patten, Diana; Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina; Wright, Mark L. J. (2020-10-21)
This paper quantifies the positive and normative effects of capital controls on international economic activity under The Bretton Woods international financial system. We develop a three region world economic model consisting of the U.S., Western Europe, and the Rest of the World. The model allows us to quantify the impact of these controls through an open economy general equilibrium capital flows accounting framework. We find these controls had large effects. Counterfactuals show that world output would have been 6% larger had the controls not been implemented. We show that the controls led ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-042

Working Paper
Seigniorage and Sovereign Default: The Response of Emerging Markets to COVID-19
Sanchez, Juan M.; Kozlowski, Julian; Martin, Fernando M.; Espino, Emilio
Monetary policy affects the tradeoffs faced by governments in sovereign default models. In the absence of lump-sum taxation, governments rely on both distortionary taxes and seigniorage to finance expenditure. Furthermore, monetary policy adds a time-consistency problem in debt choice, which may mitigate or exacerbate the incentives to accumulate debt. A deterioration of the terms-of-trade leads to an increase in sovereign-default risk and inflation, and a reduction in growth, which are consistent with the empirical evidence for emerging economies. An unanticipated shock resembling the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-017

Journal Article
Monetary Policy in an Oil-Exporting Economy
Hamann, Franz; Rodríguez, Diego; Bejarano, Jesús; Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina (2016)
The sudden collapse of oil prices poses a challenge to inflation-targeting central banks in oil-exporting economies. In this article, the authors illustrate this challenge and conduct a quantitative assessment of the impact of changes in oil prices in a small open economy in which oil represents an important fraction of its exports. They build a monetary, three-sector, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and estimate it for the Colombian economy. They model the oil sector as an optimal resource extracting problem and show that in oil-exporting economies the macroeconomic effects vary ...
Review , Volume 98 , Issue 3 , Pages 239-61

Conference Paper
Capital controls: a normative analysis
Lipinska, Anna; De Paoli, Bianca (2012)
Countries' concerns with the value of their currency have been extensively studied and documented in the literature. Capital controls can be (and often are) used as a tool to manage exchange rate fluctuations. This paper investigates whether countries can benefi t from using such a tool. We develop a welfare based analysis of whether (or, in fact, how)countries should tax international borrowing. Our results suggest that managing exchange rate movements with the use of these taxes can be benefi cial for individual countries although it would limit cross-border pooling of risk. This is because ...
Proceedings , Issue Nov , Pages 1-36

Working Paper
Get the Lowdown: The International Side of the Fall in the U.S. Natural Rate of Interest
Martinez-Garcia, Enrique (2020-10-22)
Much consideration has been given among scholars and policymakers to the decline in the U.S. natural rate of interest since the 2007 – 09 global financial crisis. In this paper, I investigate its determinants and drivers through the lens of the workhorse two-country New Keynesian model that captures the trade and technological interconnectedness of the U.S. with the rest of the world economy. Using Bayesian techniques, I bring the set of binding log-linearized equilibrium conditions from this model to the data, but augmented with survey-based forecasts in order to align the solution with ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 403

Report
The emerging market economies in times of taper-talk and actual tapering
Diez, Federico J. (2014-11-14)
The emerging market economies (EME) experienced financial distress during two recent periods, both linked to the prospect of the Federal Reserve starting to slow its asset purchases. This policy change was expected to reverse the capital flows directed to the EME. Despite this aggregate effect, a closer analysis shows that there were significant differences across the EME during the time when talk of the upcoming taper began and the period when the policy was implemented. The author makes use of the literature on currency crises to analyze the different cross-country responses and to identify ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 14-6

Report
The competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing
Diez, Federico J.; Gopinath, Gita (2014-06-01)
We study the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing. For the period 1999?2012 we find little support for a significant offshoring reversal. We show that the share of domestic demand that is met by imports and the terms of trade show no signs of reversal, even in sectors dominated by imports from China. We do, however, find some evidence consistent with the U.S. shale-gas energy revolution raising the competiveness of U.S. energy-intensive sectors.
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 14-3

Report
The effects of a stronger dollar on U.S. prices
Diez, Federico J.; Gopinath, Gita (2015-12-01)
Since 2014:Q3, the U.S. dollar has experienced the third-fastest appreciation in over 30 years, with its nominal exchange and real exchange rate rising 15 percent against almost all foreign currencies (as measured by the Major Currencies Dollar Index). This sudden and rapid gain has engendered concerns about how a stronger dollar will affect U.S. export and import prices and ultimately, consumer prices and inflation in the United States. This paper assembles a rich database, spanning the period from 1985:Q1 through 2014:Q4, that combines several measures of prices and exchange rates in order ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 15-9

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