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Jel Classification:F36 

Working Paper
Catalytic IMF? a gross flows approach

The financial assistance the International Monetary Fund (IMF) provides is assumed to catalyze fresh investment. Such a catalytic effect has, however, proven empirically elusive. This paper deviates from the standard approach based on the net capital inflow to study instead the IMF?s catalytic role in the context of gross capital flows. Using fixed-effects regressions, instrumental variables and local projection methods, we find significant differences in how resident and foreign investors react to IMF programs as well as in inward and outward flows. While IMF lending does not catalyze ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 254

Working Paper
The Effect of Foreign Lending on Domestic Loans : An Analysis of U.S. Global Banks

This paper examines the effect of foreign lending on the domestic lending for US global banks. We show that greater foreign loan growth complements, rather than detracts from, domestic commercial lending. Exploiting a confidential data (FFIEC 009) on international loan exposure of US banks, we estimate that a 1% increase in foreign office lending is associated with a 0.6% growth in domestic commercial lending, suggesting complementarity across these lending channels. However, when capital raising is tight during the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, we find that foreign lending did come at the ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1198

Working Paper
Cross-Border Bank Flows and Monetary Policy

We analyze the impact of monetary policy on bilateral cross-border bank flows using the BIS Locational Banking Statistics between 1995 and 2014. We find that monetary policy in the source countries is an important determinant of cross-border bank flows. In addition, we find evidence in favor of a cross-border bank portfolio channel. As relatively tighter monetary conditions in source countries erode the net worth and collateral values of domestic borrowers, banks reallocate their claims toward safer foreign counterparties. The cross-border reallocation of credit is more pronounced for banks ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1241

Working Paper
Bond Flows and Liquidity: Do Foreigners Matter?

In their search for yield in the current low interest rate environment, many investors have turned to sovereign debt in emerging economies, which has raised concerns about risks to financial stability from these capital flows. To assess this risk, we study the effects of changes in the foreign-held share of Mexican sovereign bonds on their liquidity premiums. We find that recent increases in foreign holdings of these securities have played a significant role in driving up their liquidity premiums. Provided the higher compensation for bearing liquidity risk is commensurate with the chance of a ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2019-8

Working Paper
Reversals in Global Market Integration and Funding Liquidity

This paper looks at the reversals in global financial integration through the funding liquidity lens. First, we construct a segmentation indicator based on differences in funding liquidity across countries as measured by the performance of betting-against-beta strategies. Second, we find that funding liquidity shocks help explain recent reversals in integration in the absence of explicit foreign investment barriers. These findings are consistent with tighter limits to arbitrage and increased home bias during funding distress periods. Our empirical analysis is guided by a margin-CAPM model ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1202

Working Paper
Official Debt Restructurings and Development

Despite the frequency of official debt restructurings, little systematic evidence has been produced on their characteristics and implications. Using a dataset covering more than 400 Paris Club agreements, this paper fills that gap. It provides a comprehensive description of the evolving characteristics of these operations and studies their impact on debtors. The progressive introduction of new terms of treatment gradually turned the Paris Club from an institution primarily concerned with preserving creditors? claims into an instrument to foster development in the world?s poorer nations, among ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 339

Working Paper
Do China and oil exporters influence major currency configurations?

This paper analyses the impact of the shift away from a U.S. dollar focus of systemically important emerging market economies (EMEs) on configurations between the U.S. dollar, the euro and the yen. Given the difficulty that fixed or managed U.S. dollar exchange rate regimes remain pervasive and reserve compositions mostly kept secret, the identification strategy of the paper is to analyse the market impact on major currency pairs of official statements made by EME policy-makers about their exchange rate regime and reserve composition. Developing a novel database for 18 EMEs, we find that such ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 25

Working Paper
Shock Transmission through Cross-Border Bank Lending: Credit and Real Effects

We study the transmission of financial shocks across borders through international bank connections. Using data on cross-border interbank loans among 6,000 banks during 1997-2012, we estimate the effect of asset-side exposures to banks in countries experiencing systemic banking crises on profitability, credit, and the performance of borrower firms. Crisis exposures reduce bank returns and tighten credit conditions for borrowers, constraining investment and growth. The effects are larger for foreign borrowers, including in countries not experiencing banking crises. Our results document the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-052

Working Paper
Financial Integration and the Co-Movement of Economic Activity: Evidence from U.S. States

We analyze the effect of the geographic expansion of banks across U.S. states on the comovement of economic activity between states. Exploiting the removal of interstate banking restrictions to construct time-varying instrumental variables at the state-pair level, we find that bilateral banking integration increases output co-movement between states. The effect of financial integration depends on the nature of the idiosyncratic shocks faced by states and is stronger for more financially dependent industries. Finally, we show that integration (1) increases the similarity of bank lending ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1305

Working Paper
Global banks, financial shocks and international business cycles: evidence from an estimated model

This paper estimates a two-country model with a global bank, using U.S. and Euro area (EA) data, and Bayesian methods. The estimated model matches key U.S. and EA business cycle statistics. Empirically, a model version with a bank capital requirement outperforms a structure without such a constraint. A loan loss originating in one country triggers a global output reduction. Banking shocks matter more for EA macro variables than for U.S. real activity. During the Great Recession (2007?09), banking shocks accounted for about 20 percent of the fall in U.S. and EA GDP, and for more than half of ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 120

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