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One reason countries pay their debts: renegotiation and international trade
Rose, Andrew K. (2001-12-01)
This paper estimates the effect of sovereign debt renegotiation on international trade. Sovereign default may be associated with a subsequent decline in international trade either because creditors want to deter default by debtors, or because trade finance dries up after default. To estimate the effect, I use an empirical gravity model of bilateral trade and a large panel data set covering fifty years and more than 200 trading partners. The model controls for a host of factors that influence bilateral trade flows, including the incidence of International Monetary Fund programs. Using the ...
Staff Reports , Paper 142

Working Paper
International Capital Flows: Private Versus Public Flows in Developing and Developed Countries
Zhang, Jing; Kim, Yun Jung (2020-11-13)
Empirically, net capital inflows are pro-cyclical in developed countries and counter-cyclical in developing countries. That said, private inflows are pro-cyclical and public in flows are counter-cyclical in both groups of countries. The dominance of private (public) in flows in developed (developing) countries drives the difference in total net inflows. We rationalize these patterns using a dynamic stochastic two-sector model of a small open economy facing borrowing constraints. Private agents over-borrow because of the pecuniary externality arising from constraints. The government saves ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-27

Working Paper
The Rise in Home Currency Issuance
Jones, Peter; Spiegel, Mark M.; Hale, Galina (2014-07)
Using a large sample of private international bond issues, we document a substantial decline in the share of international bonds denominated in major reserve currencies over the last two decades, and an increase in bonds denominated in issuers? home currencies. These secular trends appear to have accelerated notably after the global financial crisis. Observed increases in home currency foreign bond issuance was larger in countries with stable inflation and lower government debt, and in emerging markets that adopted explicit inflation targeting policies. We then present a model that ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2014-19

Working Paper
Domestic Policies and Sovereign Default
Espino, Emilio; Sanchez, Juan M.; Martin, Fernando M.; Kozlowski, Julian (2022-05-23)
A model with two essential elements, sovereign default and distortionary fiscal and monetary policies, explains the interaction between sovereign debt, default risk and inflation in emerging countries. We derive conditions under which monetary policy is actively used to support fiscal policy and characterize the intertemporal tradeoffs that determine the choice of debt. We show that in response to adverse shocks to the terms of trade or productivity, governments reduce debt and deficits, and increase inflation and currency depreciation rates, matching the patterns observed in the data for ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-017

Working Paper
Thousands of models, one story: current account imbalances in the global economy
Chudik, Alexander; Dieppe, Alistair; Ca' Zorzi, Michele (2011)
The global financial crisis has led to a revival of the empirical literature on current account imbalances. This paper contributes to that literature by investigating the importance of evaluating model and parameter uncertainty prior to reaching any firm conclusion. We explore three alternative econometric strategies: examining all models, selecting a few, and combining them all. Out of thousands (or indeed millions) of models a story emerges. The chance that current accounts were aligned with fundamentals prior to the financial crisis appears to be minimal.
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 100

Working Paper
Spillovers at the Extremes: The Macroprudential Stance and Vulnerability to the Global Financial Cycle
Forbes, Kristin J.; Dilts Stedman, Karlye; Chari, Anusha (2021-12-17)
Evidence suggests that macroprudential policy has small and insignificant effects on the volume of portfolio flows. We show, however, that these minor effects mask very different relationships across the global financial cycle. A tighter ex-ante macroprudential stance amplifies the impact of global risk shocks on bond and equity flows—increasing outflows by significantly more during risk-off episodes and increasing inflows significantly more during risk on episodes. These amplification effects are more prominent at the “extremes,” especially for extreme risk-off periods, and are larger ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 21-16

Working Paper
A seniority arrangement for sovereign debt
Eyigungor, Burcu; Chatterjee, Satyajit (2015-01-31)
A sovereign's inability to commit to a course of action regarding future borrowing and default behavior makes long-term debt costly (the problem of debt dilution). One mechanism to mitigate the debt dilution problem is the inclusion of a seniority clause in sovereign debt contracts. In the event of default, creditors are to be paid off in the order in which they lent (the ?absolute priority" or ?first-in-time" rule). In this paper, we propose a modification of the absolute priority rule that is more suited to the sovereign debt context and analyze its positive and normative implications ...
Working Papers , Paper 15-7

Working Paper
Bank crises and sovereign defaults in emerging markets: exploring the links
Balteanu, Irina; Erce, Aitor (2014-06-01)
This paper provides a set of stylized facts on the mechanisms through which banking and sovereign distress feed into each other, using a large sample of emerging economies over three decades. We first define ?twin crises? as events where banking crises and sovereign defaults combine, and further distinguish between those banking crises that end up in sovereign debt crises, and vice-versa. We then assess what differentiates ?single? episodes from ?twin? ones. Using an event analysis methodology, we study the behavior around crises of variables describing the balance sheet interconnection ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 184

Working Paper
Macroprudential Policy Interlinkages
Matschke, Johannes (2021-09-30)
Emerging markets are concerned about sudden stops in international capital flows, which may lead to severe recessions associated with vicious spirals of currency depreciations and tightening borrowing constraints. A common prescription is to impose macroprudential policies, including prudential capital controls, to limit international borrowing especially in foreign currency. This paper analyzes the supportive role of macroprudential policies geared toward the domestic financial market, suggesting that emerging markets should resort to a wide mix of policies, even when the domestic financial ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 21-10

Working Paper
Resource Curse or Blessing? Sovereign Risk in Resource-Rich Emerging Economies
Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina; Hamann, Franz; Mendoza, Enrique G. (2018-10-01)
In this paper we document the stylized facts about the relationship between international oil price swings, sovereign risk and macroeconomic performance of oil-exporting economies. We show that even though being a bigger oil producer decreases sovereign risk?because it increases a country?s ability to repay?having more oil reserves increases sovereign risk by making autarky more attractive. We develop a small open economy model of sovereign risk with incomplete international financial markets, in which optimal oil extraction and sovereign default interact. We use the model to understand the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-32

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