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Banking across borders
Niepmann, Friederike (2012-10-01)
The international linkages between banks play a crucial role in today?s global economy. Existing models explain these links on the basis of portfolio theory, in which banks diversify lending. These models have found only limited empirical support and do not speak to many relevant dimensions of the data. For example, they do not address heterogeneity in the degree to which banking sectors fund their foreign operations locally in foreign markets. This paper proposes an alternative theory to explain banking across borders that is based on elements of international trade theory. In the model, ...
Staff Reports , Paper 576

Report
The shifting drivers of global liquidity
Goldberg, Linda S.; Avdjiev, Stefan; Gambacorta, Leonardo; Schiaffi, Stefano (2017-06-01)
The post-crisis period has seen a considerable shift in the composition and drivers of international bank lending and international bond issuance, the two main components of global liquidity. The sensitivity of both types of flows to U.S. monetary policy rose substantially in the immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis, peaked around the time of the 2013 Federal Reserve ?taper tantrum,? and then partially reverted toward pre-crisis levels. Conversely, the responsiveness of international bank lending to global risk conditions declined considerably after the crisis and became similar ...
Staff Reports , Paper 819

Report
Supply- and demand-side factors in global banking
McGuire, Patrick M.; Amiti, Mary; Weinstein, David E. (2017-06-01)
What is the role of supply and demand forces in determining movements in international banking flows? Answering this question is crucial for understanding the international transmission of financial shocks and formulating policy. This paper addresses the question by using the method developed in Amiti and Weinstein (forthcoming) to exactly decompose the growth in international bank credit into common shocks, idiosyncratic supply shocks, and idiosyncratic demand shocks for the 2000-16 period. A striking feature of the global banking flows data can be characterized by what we term the ?Anna ...
Staff Reports , Paper 818

Journal Article
The economics of small open economies
Guerron-Quintana, Pablo (2013-10)
In recent years, the threat of sovereign debt crises has led investors to demand higher yields on bonds issued by heavily indebted developed countries such as Greece, Ireland, Spain, and Portugal. Pablo Guerron-Quintana explains why small open economies in both the developed and developing worlds share certain funding constraints and considers what lessons developed economies may draw from the experiences of their developing counterparts.
Business Review , Issue Q4 , Pages 9-18

Working Paper
A Coherent Framework for Predicting Emerging Market Credit Spreads with Support Vector Regression
Anderson, Gary S.; Audzeyeva, Alena (2019-10-17)
We propose a coherent framework using support vector regression (SRV) for generating and ranking a set of high quality models for predicting emerging market sovereign credit spreads. Our framework adapts a global optimization algorithm employing an hv-block cross-validation metric, pertinent for models with serially correlated economic variables, to produce robust sets of tuning parameters for SRV kernel functions. In contrast to previous approaches identifying a single "best" tuning parameter setting, a task that is pragmatically improbable to achieve in many applications, we proceed with ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-074

Working Paper
Policy Interventions in Sovereign Debt Restructurings
Dvorkin, Maximiliano; Sanchez, Juan M.; Yurdagul, Emircan; Sapriza, Horacio (2019-11-15)
The wave of sovereign defaults in the early 1980s and the string of debt crises in the decades that followed have fostered proposals involving policy interventions in sovereign debt restructurings. A key question about these proposals that has proved hard to handle is how they in influence the behavior of creditors and debtors. We address such challenge by incorporating these policy proposals into a quantitative model in the tradition of Eaton and Gersovitz (1981) that includes renegotiation in sovereign debt restructurings. Critically, the model also endogenizes the choice of debt maturity, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-36

Working Paper
News, sovereign debt maturity, and default risk
Dvorkin, Maximiliano; Sanchez, Juan M.; Yurdagul, Emircan; Sapriza, Horacio (2020-04-20)
Leading into a debt crisis, interest rate spreads on sovereign debt rise before the economy experiences a decline in productivity, suggesting that news about future economic developments may play an important role in these episodes. In a VAR estimation, a news shock has a larger contemporaneous impact on sovereign credit spreads than a comparable shock to labor productivity. A quantitative model of news and sovereign debt default with endogenous maturity choice generates impulse responses and a variance decomposition similar to the empirical VAR estimates. The dynamics of the economy after a ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-033

Working Paper
News, sovereign debt maturity, and default risk
Dvorkin, Maximiliano; Sanchez, Juan M.; Yurdagul, Emircan; Sapriza, Horacio (2020-05-18)
Leading into a debt crisis, interest rate spreads on sovereign debt rise before the economy experiences a decline in productivity, suggesting that news about future economic developments may play an important role in these episodes. In a VAR estimation, a news shock has a larger contemporaneous impact on sovereign credit spreads than a comparable shock to labor productivity. A quantitative model of news and sovereign debt default with endogenous maturity choice generates impulse responses and a variance decomposition similar to the empirical VAR estimates. The dynamics of the economy after a ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-033

Working Paper
News, sovereign debt maturity, and default risk
Dvorkin, Maximiliano; Sanchez, Juan M.; Yurdagul, Emircan; Sapriza, Horacio (2018-10-31)
Leading into a debt crisis, interest rate spreads on sovereign debt rise before the economy experiences a decline in productivity, suggesting that news about future economic developments may play an important role in these episodes. In a VAR estimation, a news shock has a larger contemporaneous impact on sovereign credit spreads than a comparable shock to labor productivity. A quantitative model of news and sovereign debt default with endogenous maturity choice generates impulse responses and a variance decomposition similar to the empirical VAR estimates. The dynamics of the economy after a ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-33

Working Paper
Resource Curse or Blessing? Sovereign Risk in Resource-Rich Emerging Economies
Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina; Hamann, Franz; Mendoza, Enrique G. (2018-10-01)
In this paper we document the stylized facts about the relationship between international oil price swings, sovereign risk and macroeconomic performance of oil-exporting economies. We show that even though being a bigger oil producer decreases sovereign risk?because it increases a country?s ability to repay?having more oil reserves increases sovereign risk by making autarky more attractive. We develop a small open economy model of sovereign risk with incomplete international financial markets, in which optimal oil extraction and sovereign default interact. We use the model to understand the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-32

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