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Working Paper
Death of a Reserve Currency
Roberds, William; Quinn, Stephen F.
(2014-09-01)
The Dutch bank florin was the dominant currency in Europe during much of the 17th and 18th centuries. The florin, a fiat money, was managed by an early central bank, the Bank of Amsterdam. Using a new reconstruction of the Bank of Amsterdam's balance sheet, we analyze the florin's loss of reserve currency status during the period 1781?92. The reconstruction shows that by 1784, accommodative policies rendered the Bank of Amsterdam "policy insolvent," meaning that its net worth would have been negative under continuation of its policy objectives. Policy insolvency coincided with the Bank of ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 2014-17
Working Paper
Catalytic IMF? a gross flows approach
Erce, Aitor; Riera-Crichton, Daniel
(2015-11-01)
The financial assistance the International Monetary Fund (IMF) provides is assumed to catalyze fresh investment. Such a catalytic effect has, however, proven empirically elusive. This paper deviates from the standard approach based on the net capital inflow to study instead the IMF?s catalytic role in the context of gross capital flows. Using fixed-effects regressions, instrumental variables and local projection methods, we find significant differences in how resident and foreign investors react to IMF programs as well as in inward and outward flows. While IMF lending does not catalyze ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 254
Conference Paper
Surprising similarities: recent monetary regimes of small economies
Rose, Andrew K.
(2013-11)
In contrast to earlier recessions, the monetary regimes of many small economies have not changed in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. This is due in part to the fact that many small economies continue to use hard exchange rate fixes, a reasonably durable regime. However, most of the new stability is due to countries that float with an inflation target. Though a few have left to join the Eurozone, no country has yet abandoned an inflation targeting regime under duress. Inflation targeting now represents a serious alternative to a hard exchange rate fix for small economies seeking ...
Proceedings
, Issue Nov
, Pages 1-44
Working Paper
Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums
Jordà, Òscar; Ward, Felix; Taylor, Alan M.; Schularick, Moritz
(2018-06-11)
This paper studies the synchronization of financial cycles across 17 advanced economies over the past 150 years. The comovement in credit, house prices, and equity prices has reached historical highs in the past three decades. The sharp increase in the comovement of global equity markets is particularly notable. We demonstrate that fluctuations in risk premiums, and not risk-free rates and dividends, account for a large part of the observed equity price synchronization after 1990. We also show that U.S. monetary policy has come to play an important role as a source of fluctuations in risk ...
Working Paper Series
, Paper 2018-5
Working Paper
The Consequences of Bretton Woods’ International Capital Controls and the High Value of Geopolitical Stability
Ohanian, Lee E.; Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina; Van Patten, Diana; Wright, Mark L. J.
(2022-09-28)
This paper quantifies the positive and normative effects of international capital controls on global and regional economic activity under The Bretton Woods international financial system and thereafter. A three region, open economy, DSGE capital flows accounting framework consisting of the U.S., Western Europe, and the Rest of the World, is developed to identify capital controls and quantify their impact. We find these controls had large positive and normative effects by restricting international capital flows. Counterfactual analyses show world output would have been 0.6% higher had there ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2020-042
Working Paper
The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy
Singh, Sanjay R.; Taylor, Alan M.; Jordà, Òscar
(2020-01-16)
Is the effect of monetary policy on the productive capacity of the economy long lived? Yes, in fact we find such impacts are significant and last for over a decade based on: (1) merged data from two new international historical databases; (2) identification of exogenous monetary policy using the macroeconomic trilemma; and (3) improved econometric methods. Notably, the capital stock and total factor productivity (TFP) exhibit hysteresis, but labor does not. Money is non-neutral for a much longer period of time than is customarily assumed. A New Keynesian model with endogenous TFP growth can ...
Working Paper Series
, Paper 2020-01
Working Paper
The Impact of Bretton Woods International Capital Controls on the Global Economy and the Value of Geopolitical Stability: A General Equilibrium Analysis
Ohanian, Lee E.; Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina; Van Patten, Diana; Wright, Mark L. J.
(2023-09-15)
This paper quantifies the positive and normative impacts of Bretton Woods capital controls on global and regional economic activity. A three-region DSGE capital flows accounting framework consisting of the U.S., Western Europe, and the Rest of the World (ROW) is developed to quantify capital controls and evaluate their impact on the world economy. We conduct counterfactual analyses that eliminate Bretton Woods’ capital controls and find these controls substantially reduced global capital flows, had large negative welfare effects on the U.S., raised welfare substantially in the ROW, and ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2020-042
Report
Fiscal Unions Redux
Pastorino, Elena; Kehoe, Patrick J.
(2017-02-21)
Before the advent of sophisticated international financial markets, a widely accepted belief was that within a monetary union, a union-wide authority orchestrating fiscal transfers between countries is necessary to provide adequate insurance against country-specific economic fluctuations. A natural question is then: Do sophisticated international financial markets obviate the need for such an active union-wide authority? We argue that they do. Specifically, we show that in a benchmark economy with no international financial markets, an activist union-wide authority is necessary to achieve ...
Staff Report
, Paper 543
Working Paper
Stablecoins: Growth Potential and Impact on Banking
Liao, Gordon Y.; Caramichael, John
(2022-01-31)
Stablecoins have experienced tremendous growth in the past year, serving as a possible breakthrough innovation in the future of payments. In this paper, we discuss the current use cases and growth opportunities of stablecoins, and we analyze the potential for stablecoins to broadly impact the banking system. The impact of stablecoin adoption on traditional banking and credit provision can vary depending on the sources of inflow and the composition of stablecoin reserves. Among the various scenarios, a two-tiered banking system can both support stablecoin issuance and maintain traditional ...
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 1334
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