Search Results

Showing results 1 to 10 of approximately 141.

(refine search)

SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT

All:
Title:
Author:
Abstract:
Keywords:

+ Add Search Parameter

Working Paper
Risk sharing in a world economy with uncertainty shocks
Kollmann, Robert (2015-11-01)
This paper analyzes the effects of output volatility shocks and of risk appetite shocks on the dynamics of consumption, trade flows and the real exchange rate, in a two-country world with recursive preferences and complete financial markets. When the risk aversion coefficient exceeds the inverse of the intertemporal substitution elasticity, then an exogenous rise in a country?s output volatility triggers a wealth transfer to that country, in equilibrium; this raises its consumption, lowers its trade balance and appreciates its real exchange rate. The effects of risk appetite shocks resemble ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 258

Report
China’s evolving managed float: an exploration of the roles of the fix and broad dollar movements in explaining daily exchange rate changes
Clark, John (2017-11-01)
We investigate the drivers of daily changes in the exchange value of the Chinese currency (CNY) since early 2016, when a new regime was introduced for setting the fix?the midpoint of the CNY?s daily trading range against the U.S. dollar. Daily changes in the fix, which is announced just prior to the onset of onshore trading, are shown to be highly predictable and very responsive to the change in the CNY/USD rate during the previous day?s onshore trading session and to changes in dollar cross rates. While highly predictable, the fix is shown to have uneven predictive power for the subsequent ...
Staff Reports , Paper 828

Working Paper
Using Brexit to Identify the Nature of Price Rigidities
Hobijn, Bart; Nechio, Fernanda; Shapiro, Adam Hale (2019-04-30)
Using price quote data that underpin the official U.K. consumer price index (CPI), we analyze the effects of the unexpected passing of the Brexit referendum to the dynamics of price adjustments. The sizable depreciation of the British pound that immediately followed Brexit works as a quasi-experiment, enabling us to study the transmission of a large common marginal cost shock to inflation as well as the distribution of prices within granular product categories. A large portion of the inflationary effect is attributable to the size of price adjustments, implying that a time-dependent ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2019-13

Working Paper
Missing Import Price Changes and Low Exchange Rate Pass-Through
Vigfusson, Robert J.; Gagnon, Etienne; Mandel, Benjamin R. (2012)
A large body of empirical work has found that exchange rate movements have only modest effects on inflation. However, the response of an import price index to exchange rate movements may be underestimated because some import price changes are missed when constructing the index. We investigate downward biases that arise when items experiencing a price change are especially likely to exit or to enter the index. We show that, in theoretical pricing models, entry and exit have different implications for the timing and size of these biases. Using Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) microdata, we ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1040

Working Paper
“Conditional PPP” and Real Exchange Rate Convergence in the Euro Area
Wu, Jyh-Lin; Glick, Reuven; Bergin, Paul R. (2016-10-18)
While economic theory highlights the usefulness of flexible exchange rates in promoting adjustment in international relative prices, flexible exchange rates also can be a source of destabilizing shocks. We find that when countries joining the euro currency union abandoned their national exchange rates, the adjustment of real exchange rates toward their long-run equilibrium surprisingly became faster. To investigate, we distinguish between differing rates of purchasing power parity (PPP) convergence conditional on alternative shocks, which we refer to as ?conditional PPP.? We find that the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2016-29

Report
Real Exchange Rates and Primary Commodity Prices
Ayres, Joao Luiz; Nicolini, Juan Pablo; Hevia, Constantino (2019-05-09)
In this paper, we show that there is substantial comovement between prices of primary commodities such as oil, aluminum, maize, or copper and real exchange rates between developed economies such as Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom against the US dollar. We therefore explicitly consider the production of commodities in a two-country model of trade with productivity shocks and shocks to the supplies of commodities. We calibrate the model so as to reproduce the volatility and persistence of primary commodity prices and show that it delivers equilibrium real exchange rates that are as ...
Staff Report , Paper 584

Working Paper
US Equity Tail Risk and Currency Risk Premia
Fan, Zhenzhen; Xiao, Xiao; Londono, Juan M. (2019-07-08)
We find that a US equity tail risk factor constructed from out-of-the-money S&P 500 put option prices explains the cross-sectional variation of currency excess returns. Currencies highly exposed to this factor offer a low currency risk premium because they appreciate when US tail risk increases. In a reduced-form model, we show that country-specific tail risk factors are priced in the cross section of currency returns only if they contain a global risk component. Motivated by the intuition from the model and by our empirical results, we construct a novel proxy for a global tail risk factor by ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1253

Working Paper
How successful is the G7 in managing exchange rates?
Fratzscher, Marcel (2009)
The paper assesses the extent to which the Group of Seven (G7) has been successful in its management of major currencies since the 1970s. Using an event-study approach, the paper finds evidence that the G7 has been overall effective in moving the U.S. dollar, yen and euro in the intended direction at horizons of up to three months after G7 meetings, but not at longer horizons. While the success of the G7 is partly dependent on the market environment, it is also to a significant degree endogenous to the policy process itself. The findings indicate that the reputation and credibility of the G7, ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 24

Working Paper
Explaining International Business Cycle Synchronization: Recursive Preferences and the Terms of Trade Channel
Kollmann, Robert (2017-03-01)
The business cycles of advanced economies are synchronized. Standard macro models fail to explain that fact. This paper presents a simple model of a two-country, two-traded good, complete-financial-markets world in which country-specific productivity shocks generate business cycles that are highly correlated internationally. The model assumes recursive intertemporal preferences (Epstein-Zin-Weil), and a muted response of labor hours to household wealth changes (due to Greenwood-Hercowitz-Huffman period utility and demand-determined employment under rigid wages). Recursive intertemporal ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 307

Working Paper
Optimal Monetary Policy and Capital Account Restrictions in a Small Open Economy
Spiegel, Mark M.; Liu, Zheng (2013)
The recent financial crisis has led to large declines in world interest rates and surges of capital flows to emerging market economies. We examine the effectiveness and welfare implications of capital control policies in the face of such external shocks in a monetary DSGE model of a small open economy. We consider both optimal, time-varying restrictions on capital inflows and a simple capital account restriction, such as a constant tax on foreign debt holdings. We then compare the effectiveness of such capital account restrictions under alternative monetary regimes. We find that the optimal ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2013-33

show more (2)

show more (86)

PREVIOUS / NEXT

Fed in Print

Search Results

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Bank

FILTER BY Series

FILTER BY Content Type

FILTER BY Author

FILTER BY Jel Classification

FILTER BY Keywords