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Working Paper
What Determines the Composition of International Bank Flows?
Kerl, Cornelia; Niepmann, Friederike (2016-06)
This paper studies how frictions to foreign bank operations affect the sectoral composition of banks? foreign positions, their funding sources and international bank flows. It presents a parsimonious model of banking across borders, which is matched to bank-level data and used to quantify cross-border frictions. The counterfactual analysis shows how higher barriers to foreign bank entry alter the composition of international bank flows and may reverse the direction of net interbank flows. It also highlights that interbank lending and lending to non-banking firms respond differently to changes ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1170

Working Paper
Currency Manipulation
Hassan, Tarek A.; Mertens, Thomas M.; Zhang, Tony (2016-12-01)
We propose a novel, risk-based transmission mechanism for the effects of currency manipulation: policies that systematically induce a country?s currency to appreciate in bad times, lower its risk premium in international markets and, as a result, lower the country?s risk-free interest rate and increase domestic capital accumulation and wages. Currency manipulations by large countries also have external effects on foreign interest rates and capital accumulation. Applying this logic to policies that lower the variance of the bilateral exchange rate relative to some target country (?currency ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2016-15

Working Paper
International Dollar Flows
Banegas, Ayelen; Judson, Ruth; Sims, Charles; Stebunovs, Viktors (2015-09-09)
Using confidential Federal Reserve data, we study the factors driving U.S. banknote flows between the United States and other countries. These flows are a significant component of capital flows in emerging market economies, where physical U.S. currency functions as a safe asset and precautionary demand for U.S. banknotes is a form of flight to quality. Prior to the global financial crisis, country-specific factors, including local economic uncertainty, largely explain the volume and heterogeneity of the flows. Since the crisis, global factors, particularly, global economic uncertainty, ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1144

Speech
U.S. macroeconomic and regulatory developments and emerging market economies
Musalem, Alberto G. (2015-03-09)
Remarks at the International Financial Conference Annual Meeting, Cartagena, Colombia.
Speech , Paper 159

Report
Measuring Global Financial Market Stresses
Groen, Jan J. J.; Nattinger, Michael; Noble, Adam I. (2020-09-04)
We propose measures of ﬁnancial market stress for forty-six countries and regions across the world. Our measures indicate that worldwide ﬁnancial market stresses rose signiﬁcantly in March following the widespread economic shutdowns in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, hardly anywhere in the world did these March peaks in ﬁnancial stresses reach those seen during the trough of the 2007-09 Global Financial Crisis. Since March, ﬁnancial market conditions normalized rapidly with ﬁnancial market stresses around average levels. We also show that our ﬁnancial stress measures ...
Staff Reports , Paper 940

Report
A bargaining theory of trade invoicing and pricing
Goldberg, Linda S.; Tille, Cedric (2013-04-01)
We develop a theoretical model of international trade pricing in which individual exporters and importers bargain over the transaction price and exposure to exchange rate fluctuations. We find that the choice of price and invoicing currency reflects the full market structure, including the extent of fragmentation and the degree of heterogeneity across importers and across exporters. Our study shows that a party has a higher effective bargaining weight when it is large or more risk tolerant. A higher effective bargaining weight of importers relative to exporters in turn translates into lower ...
Staff Reports , Paper 611

Working Paper
The Macroeconomic Effects of Trade Policy
Erceg, Christopher J.; Prestipino, Andrea; Raffo, Andrea (2018-12)
We study the short-run macroeconomic effects of trade policies that are equivalent in a friction-less economy, namely a uniform increase in import tariffs and export subsidies (IX), an increase in value-added taxes accompanied by a payroll tax reduction (VP), and a border adjustment of corporate pro.t taxes (BAT). Using a dynamic New Keynesian open-economy framework, we summarize conditions for exact neutrality and equivalence of these policies. Neutrality requires the real exchange rate to appreciate enough to fully offset the effects of the policies on net exports. We argue that a ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1242

Working Paper
Portfolio Rebalancing in Times of Stress
Fischer, Andreas M.; Grisse, Christian; Greminger, Rafael (2017-07-01)
This paper investigates time variation in the dynamics of international portfolio equity flows. We extend the empirical model of Hau and Rey (2004) by embedding a two-state Markov regime-switching model into the structural VAR. The model is estimated using monthly data, 1995-2015, on equity returns, exchange rate returns and equity flows between the United States and advanced and emerging economies. We find that the data are consistent with portfolio rebalancing. The estimated states match periods of low and high financial stress. Our main result is that for equity flows between the United ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 322

Report
Sovereign Risk Contagion
Arellano, Cristina; Lizarazo, Sandra; Bai, Yan (2017-11-13)
We develop a theory of sovereign risk contagion based on financial links. In our multi-country model, sovereign bond spreads comove because default in one country can trigger default in other countries. Countries are linked because they borrow, default, and renegotiate with common lenders, and the bond price and recovery schedules for each country depend on the choices of other countries. A foreign default increases the lenders' pricing kernel, which makes home borrowing more expensive and can induce a home default. Countries also default together because by doing so they can renegotiate the ...
Staff Report , Paper 559

Working Paper
The Seniority Structure of Sovereign Debt
Schlegl, Matthias; Trebesch, Christoph; Wright, Mark L. J. (2019-05-30)
Sovereign governments owe debt to many foreign creditors and can choose which creditors to favor when making payments. This paper documents the de facto seniority structure of sovereign debt using new data on defaults (missed payments or arrears) and creditor losses in debt restructuring (haircuts). We overturn conventional wisdom by showing that official bilateral (government-to-government) debt is junior, or at least not senior, to private sovereign debt such as bank loans and bonds. Private creditors are typically paid first and lose less than bilateral official creditors. We confirm that ...
Working Papers , Paper 759

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