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Journal Article
Global Value Chains and U.S. Economic Activity During COVID-19
Santacreu, Ana Maria; Leibovici, Fernando; LaBelle, Jesse (2021-05-05)
We investigate the role of global value chains in the declines of manufacturing employment and output in the U.S. during COVID-19. Specifically, we identify the role of global value chains by exploiting heterogeneity across industries in cross-country sourcing patterns and its interaction with exogenous cross-country variation in the containment policies introduced to combat the virus. We find that global value chains played a significant role in the decline of output and employment across U.S. manufactures. Moreover, we find a modest impact of diversifying or renationalizing global value ...
Review , Volume 103 , Issue 3 , Pages 271-288

Working Paper
Bought, Sold and Bought Again: The Impact of Complex Value Chains on Export Elasticities
de Soyres, Francois; http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/; Gunnella, Vanessa; Pavlova, Elena (2021-02-04)
Global value chain (GVC) participation affects the relationship between trade volumes and exchange rate movements. Guided by a simple theory, we show that exports react to the exchange rate between the country producing value added contained in exports and the country of final absorption for this value added. Three predictions follow: (i) a higher share of foreign value added in exports reduce the responsiveness of export volumes to exchange rate changes, (ii) a greater share of exports that returns as imports also reduce the responsiveness of export volumes and (iii) a higher share of inputs ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1309

Working Paper
The Gravity of Experience
Santacreu, Ana Maria; Dutt, Pushan; Traca, Daniel A. (2014-03-01)
In this paper, we establish the importance of experience in international trade for reducing trade costs and facilitating bilateral trade. Within an augmented gravity framework, we find that an additional year of experience at the country-pair level reduces trade costs by 2.0% and increases bilateral exports by 8%. The effect of experience is stronger for country-pairs that are more distant, who do not share a common border, and who lack colonial and legal ties. Further, experience raises both the extensive and the intensive margins of trade. In a dynamic trade model with heterogeneous firms ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-41

Working Paper
The Heterogeneous Effects of Trade across Occupations: A Test of the Stolper-Samuelson Theorem
Smagghue, Gabriel; Liégey, Maxime; Basco, Sergi; Mestieri, Martí (2020-10-23)
This paper develops and implements a novel test of the Stolper-Samuelson theorem. We use nationally-representative matched employer-employee panel data from 1997 through 2015 to study the effect of the rise in China’s exports on French worker earnings. Our version of the Stolper-Samuelson theorem states that there is a negative correlation between occupation exposure to Chinese competition and change in worker earnings. First, we document substantial heterogeneity in trade adjustment across occupations. Then, consistent with the Stolper-Samuelson prediction, we show that workers initially ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-24

Working Paper
Globalization and inflation in Europe
Auer, Raphael; Degen, Kathrin; Fischer, Andreas M. (2010)
What is the impact of import competition from other low-wage countries (LWCs) on inflationary pressure in Western Europe? This paper seeks to understand whether labor-intensive exports from emerging Europe, Asia, and other global regions have a uniform impact on producer prices in Germany, France, Italy, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. In a panel covering 110 (4-digit) NACE industries from 1995 to 2008, IV estimates predict that LWC import competition is associated with strong price effects. More specifically, when Chinese exporters capture 1 percent of European market share, producer prices ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 65

Working Paper
Trade and Terrorism: A Disaggregated Approach
Younas, Javed; Sandler, Todd; Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu (2016-02-01)
This paper constructs a model of trade consequences of terrorism, where firms in trading nations face different costs arising from domestic and transnational terrorism. Using dyadic dataset in a gravity model, we test terrorism?s effects on overall trade, exports, and imports, while allowing for disaggregation by primary commodities and manufacturing goods. While terrorism has little or no influence on trade of primary products, terrorism reduces trade of manufactured goods. This novel finding pinpoints the avenue by which terrorism harms trade and suggests why previous studies that looked at ...
Working Papers , Paper 2016-1

Working Paper
Firms in international trade
Diez, Federico J.; Spearot, Alan C.; Mora, Jesse (2016-12-01)
Firms play a critical role in the global economy. In this paper, we survey the behavior of firms in the international economy, both in theory and in the data. We first summarize the key empirical facts that motivate the study of firms in trade. Then, we detail recent theoretical developments on the micro-foundations of firm behavior in an international context, focusing on how firms select into exporting, and how firms respond to international shocks. Finally, we turn to a ?real world,? empirically focused view of exporting, beginning with the growth dynamics of firms expanding to global ...
Working Papers , Paper 16-25

Working Paper
China’s Current Account : External Rebalancing or Capital Flight?
Wong, Anna (2017-06-19)
This paper examines an anomaly in China?s current account: its large and rapidly growing travel expenditure. Drawing evidence from counterparty data, Chinese international arrival statistics, and gravity equation models extended to travel trade, I find that a significant amount of China?s travel spending in the period 2014-2016 could not be explained by accounting factors or economic fundamentals. The unexplained travel imports are inversely associated with domestic growth and positively associated with renminbi depreciation expectations against the dollar, suggesting that they are less ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1208

Working Paper
Tariff passthrough at the border and at the store: evidence from US trade policy
Cavallo, Alberto; Gopinath, Gita; Neiman, Brent; Tang, Jenny (2019-11-01)
We use micro data collected at the border and at retailers to characterize the effects brought by recent changes in US trade policy ? particularly the tariffs placed on imports from China ? on importers, consumers, and exporters. We start by documenting that the tariffs were almost fully passed through to the total prices paid by importers, suggesting that the tariffs? incidence has fallen largely on the United States. Since we estimate the response of prices to exchange rates to be far more muted, the recent depreciation of the Chinese renminbi is unlikely to alter this conclusion. Next, ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-12

Report
Exporters and Shocks
Fitzgerald, Doireann; Haller, Stephanie (2017-05-18)
We use micro data for Ireland to estimate how export participation and the export revenue of incumbent exporters respond to tariffs and real exchange rates. Both participation and revenue, but especially revenue, are more responsive to tariffs than to real exchange rates. Our estimates translate into an elasticity of aggregate exports with respect to tariffs of between -3.8 and -5.4, and with respect to real exchange rates of between 0.45 and 0.6, consistent with estimates in the literature based on aggregate data. We argue that forward-looking investment in customer base combined with the ...
Staff Report , Paper 549

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