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How did China’s WTO entry benefit U.S. prices?
Feenstra, Robert C.; Romalis, John; Dai, Mi; Amiti, Mary (2017-06-01)
We analyze the effects of China?s rapid export expansion following World Trade Organization (WTO) entry on U.S. prices, exploiting cross-industry variation in trade liberalization. Lower input tariffs boosted Chinese firms? productivity, lowered costs, and, in conjunction with reduced U.S. tariff uncertainty, expanded export participation. We find that China?s WTO entry significantly reduced variety-adjusted U.S. manufacturing price indexes between 2000 and 2006. For the Chinese components of these indexes, one-third of the beneficial impact comes from Chinese exporters lowering their prices, ...
Staff Reports , Paper 817

Journal Article
U.S. international transactions in 1997
Stekler, Lois E. (1998-05)
The U.S. current account deficit widened further in 1997, reaching $166 billion. U.S. imports of goods continued to exceed exports by a substantial margin. However, goods trade accounted for only a small part of the deterioration in the current account balance last year. The shift of investment income from positive to negative (the first time since 1914) was the major contributing factor; it reflected the cumulative effect of deficits in the current account that have persisted since 1982 and the balancing net capital inflows. The financial crises in Asia in the second half of 1997 visibly ...
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 84 , Issue May

Report
Who bears the cost of a change in the exchange rate? The case of imported beer
Hellerstein, Rebecca (2004-02-01)
This paper quantifies the welfare effects of a change in the nominal exchange rate using the example of the beer market. I estimate a structural econometric model that makes it possible to compute manufacturers' and retailers' pass-through of a nominal exchange-rate change, without observing wholesale prices or firms' marginal costs. I conduct counterfactual experiments to quantify how the change affects domestic and foreign firms' profits and domestic consumer welfare. The counterfactual experiments show that foreign manufacturers bear more of the cost of an exchange-rate change than do ...
Staff Reports , Paper 179

Working Paper
Firms in international trade
Diez, Federico J.; Spearot, Alan C.; Mora, Jesse (2016-12-01)
Firms play a critical role in the global economy. In this paper, we survey the behavior of firms in the international economy, both in theory and in the data. We first summarize the key empirical facts that motivate the study of firms in trade. Then, we detail recent theoretical developments on the micro-foundations of firm behavior in an international context, focusing on how firms select into exporting, and how firms respond to international shocks. Finally, we turn to a ?real world,? empirically focused view of exporting, beginning with the growth dynamics of firms expanding to global ...
Working Papers , Paper 16-25

Working Paper
Gains from Trade: Does Sectoral Heterogeneity Matter?
Yi, Kei-Mu; Giri, Rahul; Yilmazkuday, Hakan (2018-03-07)
This paper assesses the quantitative importance of including sectoral heterogeneity in computing the gains from trade. Our framework draws from Caliendo and Parro (2015) and Alvarez and Lucas (2007) and has sectoral heterogeneity along five dimensions, including the elasticity of trade to trade costs, the value-added share, and the input-output structure. The key parameter we estimate is the sectoral trade elasticity, and we use the Simonovska and Waugh (2014) simulated method of moments estimator with micro price data. Our estimates range from 2.97 to 8.94, considerably lower than those ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 341

Working Paper
The speed of exchange rate pass-through
Bonadio, Barthélémy; Fischer, Andreas M.; Saure, Philip (2016-09-01)
On January 15, 2015, the Swiss National Bank terminated its minimum exchange rate policy of one euro against 1.2 Swiss francs. This policy shift resulted in a sharp, unanticipated and permanent appreciation of the Swiss franc by more than 11% against the euro. We analyze the exchange rate pass-through into import unit values of this shock at the daily frequency using Swiss transaction-level trade data. Our key findings are twofold. First, for goods invoiced in euro the pass-through is immediate and complete. This finding is consistent with no systematic nominal price adjustment in this subset ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 282

Working Paper
The Multinational Wage Premium and Wage Dynamics
Orefice, Gianluca; Toubal, Farid; Sly, Nicholas (2016-11-01)
Using detailed administrative data linking French firms and workers over the years 2002-2007, we document a distinct U-shaped pattern in worker-level wages surrounding the time their employer is acquired by a foreign firm, with a dip in earnings observed in years just before domestic firms switch to MNE status. The dip in earnings is evident in both wages and in-kind payments given to workers. {{p}} To guide our empirical approach, we present a model with fair wage considerations among workers and endogenous cross-border acquisition activity among heterogeneous firms that predicts this ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 16-10

Working Paper
Tariff passthrough at the border and at the store: evidence from US trade policy
Cavallo, Alberto; Gopinath, Gita; Neiman, Brent; Tang, Jenny (2019-11-01)
We use micro data collected at the border and at retailers to characterize the effects brought by recent changes in US trade policy ? particularly the tariffs placed on imports from China ? on importers, consumers, and exporters. We start by documenting that the tariffs were almost fully passed through to the total prices paid by importers, suggesting that the tariffs? incidence has fallen largely on the United States. Since we estimate the response of prices to exchange rates to be far more muted, the recent depreciation of the Chinese renminbi is unlikely to alter this conclusion. Next, ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-12

Journal Article
A Regional Look at U.S. International Trade
Dvorkin, Maximiliano; Shell, Hannah (2016)
Economic activity at the state level varies greatly across U.S. regions, with different states specializing in the production of particular goods and services. This heterogeneity in activity informs the geographic distribution of U.S. imports and exports. Using U.S. Census Bureau foreign trade statistics, the authors examine the distribution of U.S. international trade at the state level, controlling for commodities and major trading partners. They find that trade activity varies greatly from state to state and identify two factors affecting this pattern?proximity to a trading partner and ...
Review , Volume 98 , Issue 1 , Pages 17-39

Working Paper
Trade and Terrorism: A Disaggregated Approach
Younas, Javed; Sandler, Todd; Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu (2016-02-01)
This paper constructs a model of trade consequences of terrorism, where firms in trading nations face different costs arising from domestic and transnational terrorism. Using dyadic dataset in a gravity model, we test terrorism?s effects on overall trade, exports, and imports, while allowing for disaggregation by primary commodities and manufacturing goods. While terrorism has little or no influence on trade of primary products, terrorism reduces trade of manufactured goods. This novel finding pinpoints the avenue by which terrorism harms trade and suggests why previous studies that looked at ...
Working Papers , Paper 2016-1

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