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Jel Classification:F10 

Working Paper
Financing Constraints, Firm Dynamics, and International Trade

There is growing empirical support for the conjecture that access to credit is an important determinant of firms' export decisions. We study a multi-country general equilibrium economy in which entrepreneurs and lenders engage in long-term credit relationships. Financial constraints arise as a consequence of financial contracts that are optimal under private information. Consistent with empirical regularities, the model implies that older and larger firms have lower average and more stable growth rates, and are more likely to survive. Exporters are larger, their survival in international ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2013-02

Working Paper
Globalization, Trade Imbalances and Labor Market Adjustment

We study the role of global trade imbalances in shaping the adjustment dynamics in response to trade shocks. We build and estimate a general equilibrium, multi-country, multi-sector model of trade with two key ingredients: (a) Consumption-saving decisions in each country commanded by representative households, leading to endogenous trade imbalances; (b) labor market frictions across and within sectors, leading to unemployment dynamics and sluggish transitions to shocks. We use the estimated model to study the behavior of labor markets in response to globalization shocks, including shocks to ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1310

Journal Article
The Economic Effects of the 2018 U.S. Trade Policy: A State-Level Analysis

We evaluate, empirically, the effect of changes in trade policy during the 2018-19 trade war on U.S. economic activity. We begin by documenting that sectors and states across the United States are heterogeneous in their exposure to international trade. To do that, we construct a measure of exposure that combines the share of a sector’s gross output that is accounted for by trade with the pattern of comparative advantage of each state in that sector. We then exploit cross-state heterogeneity in exposure to international trade and correlate it with measures of economic activity across U.S. ...
Review , Volume 102 , Issue 4 , Pages 385-412

Journal Article
Global Uncertainty in the Wake of Brexit

Hakkio and Sly find that increased global uncertainty after Brexit will be a major concern for the United Kingdom, a modest concern for the euro area, and a minor concern for the United States.
Macro Bulletin

Report
The GSCPI: A New Barometer of Global Supply Chain Pressures

We propose a novel indicator to capture pressures that arise at the global supply chain level, the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI). The GSCPI provides a new monitoring tool to gauge global supply chain conditions. We assess the index’s capacity to explain inflation outcomes, using the local projection method. Our analysis shows that recent inflationary pressures are closely related to the behavior of the GSCPI, especially at the level of producer price inflation in the United States and the euro area.
Staff Reports , Paper 1017

Journal Article
How Did the 2018–19 U.S. Tariff Hikes Influence Household Spending?

Jun Nie, Alice von Ende-Becker, and Shu-Kuei X. Yang construct a tariff intensity measure to assess the uneven effects of the 2018–19 tariff increases across different types of households. They find that low-income households were more exposed to tariff increases than high-income households; younger households were more exposed than older households; Black households were more exposed than white or Asian households; and Hispanic households were more exposed than non-Hispanic households. In addition, they find that the tariff increases led to only a small shift in household spending from ...
Economic Review , Volume 106 , Issue no.4 , Pages 5-20

Working Paper
Common Transport Infrastructure: A Quantitative Model and Estimates from the Belt and Road Initiative

This paper presents a structural general equilibrium model to analyze the effects on trade, welfare, and gross domestic product of common transport infrastructure. The model builds on Caliendo and Parro (2015) to allow for changes in trade costs due to improvements in transportation infrastructure, financed through domestic taxation, connecting multiple countries. The model highlights the trade impact of infrastructure investments through cross-border input-output linkages. This framework is then used to quantify the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative. Using new estimates on the effects ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1273

Working Paper
On the Heterogeneous Welfare Gains and Losses from Trade

How are the gains and losses from trade distributed across individuals within a country? First, we document that tradable goods constitute a larger fraction of expenditures for poor households. Second, we build a trade model with nonhomothetic preferences?to generate the documented relationship between tradable expenditure shares, income, and wealth?and uninsurable earnings risk?to generate heterogeneity in income and wealth. Third, we use the calibrated model to quantify the differential welfare gains and losses from trade along the income and wealth distribution. In a numerical exercise, we ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-06

Working Paper
The Gravity of Experience

In this paper, we establish the importance of experience in international trade in reducing unmeasured trade costs and facilitating bilateral trade. We find a strong role for experience, measured in years of positive trade, for both aggregate and sectoral bilateral trade. In an augmented gravity framework, with a very comprehensive set of fixed-effects and trend variables, we find that a 1% increase in experience at the country-pair level increases bilateral exports by 0.417% and reduces trade costs by 0.105%. Non-parametric estimates imply that nine years of experience is equivalent to a ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-041

Working Paper
Determinants of trade margins: insights using state export data

We adapt the heterogeneous firm trade models of Helpman, Melitz, and Rubinstein (2008) and Lawless (2010) to analyze extensive and intensive trade margins using state-level exports to foreign nations. Our theoretical analysis provides definitive predictions for the effects of changes in fixed costs, variable costs, and foreign income on the extensive margin, while for the intensive margin the predictions regarding changes in fixed costs are definitive, but the effects of changes in variable costs and foreign income are not. The number of exporting firms of a state is used to measure the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-6

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Carroll, Daniel R. 6 items

Hur, Sewon 6 items

Santacreu, Ana Maria 4 items

Sposi, Michael 4 items

Yi, Kei-Mu 4 items

Coughlin, Cletus C. 3 items

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