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Discussion Paper
U.S. Exporters Could Face High Tariffs without NAFTA
Amiti, Mary; Freund, Caroline L. (2017-04-17)
An underappreciated benefit of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is the protection it offers U.S. exporters from extreme tariff uncertainty in Mexico. U.S. exporters have not only gained greater tariff preferences under NAFTA than Mexican exporters gained in the United States, they have also been exempt from potential tariff hikes facing other exporters. Mexico’s bound tariff rates—the maximum tariff rate a World Trade Organization (WTO) member can impose—are very high and far exceed U.S. bound rates. Without NAFTA, there is a risk that tariffs on U.S. exports to Mexico ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20170417

Discussion Paper
Does Corporate Hedging of Foreign Exchange Risk Affect Real Economic Activity?
Jung, Hyeyoon (2023-04-12)
Foreign exchange derivatives (FXD) are a key tool for firms to hedge FX risk and are particularly important for exporting or importing firms in emerging markets. This is because FX volatility can be quite high—up to 120 percent per annum for some emerging market currencies during stress episodes—yet the vast majority of international trades, almost 90 percent, are invoiced in U.S. dollars (USD) or euros (EUR). When such hedging instruments are in short supply, what happens to firms’ real economic activities? In this post, based on my related Staff Report, I use hand-collected FXD ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230412

Discussion Paper
Why Hasn't the Yen Depreciation Spurred Japanese Exports?
Itskhoki, Oleg; Konings, Jozef; Amiti, Mary (2014-07-07)
The Japanese yen depreciated 30 percent from its peak in the fourth quarter of 2011 against its trading partners. This was expected to boost its exports as the lower yen makes Japanese goods more competitive on global markets. Instead, the volume of Japanese exports of goods actually fell by 0.6 percent over this same period, as can be seen in the chart below. Weaker external demand surely contributed to this poor export performance. Yet over the same period, U.S. goods exports grew by more than 6 percent, which suggests that other factors are also at play. In this post, we draw on our recent ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140707

Discussion Paper
What Drives International Bank Credit?
McGuire, Patrick M.; Amiti, Mary; Weinstein, David E. (2017-09-06)
A major question facing policymakers is how to deal with slumps in bank credit. The policy prescriptions are very different depending on whether the decline is a result of global forces, domestic demand, or supply problems in a particular banking system. We present findings from new research that exactly decompose the growth in banks? aggregate foreign credit into these three factors. Using global banking data for the period 2000-16, we uncover some striking patterns in bilateral credit relationships between consolidated banking systems and borrowers in more than 200 countries. The most ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20170906

Discussion Paper
Inflation and Japan's Ever-Tightening Labor Market
De Paoli, Bianca; Wheeler, Harry; Klitgaard, Thomas (2016-11-14)
Japan offers a preview of future U.S. demographic trends, having already seen a large increase in the population over 65. So, how has the Japanese economy dealt with this change? A look at the data shows that women of all ages have been pulled into the labor force and that more people are working longer. This transformation of the work force has not been enough to prevent a very tight labor market in a slowly growing economy, and it may help explain why inflation remains minimal. Namely, wages are not responding as much as they might to the tight labor market because women and older workers ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20161114

Discussion Paper
The Impact of Import Tariffs on U.S. Domestic Prices
Heise, Sebastian; Kwicklis, Noah; Amiti, Mary (2019-01-04)
The United States imposed new import tariffs on about $283 billion of U.S. imports in 2018, with rates ranging between 10 percent and 50 percent. In this post, we estimate the effect of these tariffs on the prices paid by U.S. producers and consumers. We find that the higher import tariffs had immediate impacts on U.S. domestic prices. Our results suggest that the aggregate consumer price index (CPI) is 0.3 percent higher than it would have been without the tariffs.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190104

Discussion Paper
The Transatlantic Economy Policy Responses to the Pandemic and the Road to Recovery Conference
Pesenti, Paolo; Rey, Helene; Bertoldi, Moreno (2022-07-29)
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the European Commission, and the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) jointly organized the conference “Transatlantic Economic Policy Responses to the Pandemic and the Road to Recovery,” on November 18, 2021. The conference brought together U.S. and European-based policymakers and economists from academia, think tanks, and international financial institutions to discuss issues that transatlantic policymakers are facing. The conference was held before the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the global monetary tightening. Still, its medium to ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220729

Working Paper
What Does Financial Crisis Tell Us About Exporter Behavior and Credit Reallocation?
Jiao, Yang; Wen, Yi (2019-09-24)
Using Japanese firm data covering the Japanese financial crisis in the early 1990s, we find that exporters' domestic sales declined more significantly than their foreign sales, which in turn declined more significantly than non-exporters' sales. This stylized fact provides a new litmus test for different theories proposed in the literature to explain a trade collapse associated with a financial crisis. In this paper we embed the Melitz's (2003) model into a tractable DSGE framework with incomplete financial markets and endogenous credit allocation to explain both the Japanese firm-level data ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-23

Discussion Paper
How Has the Business of International Banking Changed?
Goldberg, Linda S. (2012-02-06)
In this post, I focus on the broad historical progression of international banking activity. This broad progression serves as a backdrop for a range of other discussions and posts on global banking, on issues such as foreign banking organizations’ use of liquidity facilities in the United States and the role of banks in international risk-sharing and international transmission of shocks. It also helps explain the policy regimes in place through recent financial crises and even some of the data gaps that regulators and researchers have encountered.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20120206

Working Paper
Pre-Positioning and Cross-Border Financial Intermediation
Tabor, Nicholas K.; Zhang, Jeffery Y. (2022-08-09)
The benefits of cross-border financial activity are wide-ranging, from greater competition and more efficient markets to broader and more stable access to capital. During normal economic times, the official sector and private sector share an incentive to foster such cross-border financial activities. During a financial crisis, however, the short-term alignment of official- and private-sector incentives can divergeâ€”sometimes significantly. We present a game-theoretic model of the underlying trade-offs and discuss lessons for international financial regulators, placing them in the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2022-051

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