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Jel Classification:E66 

Journal Article
Industrial production and capacity utilization: the 2002 historical and annual revision

In late 2002, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System published a revision to its index of industrial production and the related measures of capacity utilization. The primary feature of the revision was the reclassification back to 1972 of production and capacity indexes for individual industries from the Standard Industrial Classification System to the North American Industry Classification System. The revision also reflects the incorporation of newly available, more comprehensive source data, and it introduced improved methods for measuring the annual real output of ...
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 89 , Issue Apr

Working Paper
Measuring Real Activity Using a Weekly Economic Index

This paper describes a weekly economic index (WEI) developed to track the rapid economic developments associated with the onset of and policy response to the novel coronavirus in the United States. The WEI is a weekly composite index of real economic activity, with eight of 10 series available the Thursday after the end of the reference week. In addition to being a weekly real activity index, the WEI has strong predictive power for output measures and provided an accurate nowcast of current-quarter GDP growth in the first half of 2020, with weaker performance in the second half. We document ...
Working Papers , Paper 2011

Speech
Credit growth and economic activity after the Great Recession

Remarks at the Economic Press Briefing on Student Loans, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City
Speech , Paper 165

Briefing
The Michigan Surveys of Consumers and consumer spending

We provide summary measures for a broad set of questions from the Michigan Surveys of Consumers. These measures summarize consumers' attitudes and expectations with respect to income, wealth, prices, and interest rates. They contain information that goes beyond the information captured by the Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, which is constructed from five questions in the same survey. We show that the summary measures have some explanatory power for aggregate consumption behavior over the period from 1987 to the present, even when controlling for economic fundamentals. The explanatory ...
Public Policy Brief

Working Paper
Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects

Since 2007, the labor force participation rate has fallen from about 66 percent to about 63 percent. The sources of this decline have been widely debated among academics and policymakers, with some arguing that the participation rate is depressed due to weak labor demand while others argue that the decline was inevitable due to structural forces such as the aging of the population. In this paper, we use a variety of approaches to assess reasons for the decline in participation. Although these approaches yield somewhat different estimates of the extent to which the recent decline in ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1410

Speech
The national and regional economy

Remarks at the New Jersey Performing Arts Center, Newark, New Jersey.
Speech , Paper 161

Speech
The U.S. economic and monetary policy outlook

Remarks at the Economic Club of Minnesota?s June luncheon, Minneapolis
Speech , Paper 172

Report
Measuring Real Activity Using a Weekly Economic Index

This paper describes a weekly economic index (WEI) developed to track the rapid economic developments associated with the onset of and policy response to the novel coronavirus in the United States. The WEI is a weekly composite index of real economic activity, with eight of ten series available the Thursday after the end of the reference week. In addition to being a weekly real activity index, the WEI has strong predictive power for output measures and provided an accurate nowcast of current-quarter GDP growth in the first half of 2020. We document how the WEI responded to key events and data ...
Staff Reports , Paper 920

Speech
Workforce development and reinvention in the Rochester economy

Remarks before the Rochester Business Alliance, Rochester, New York.
Speech , Paper 177

Speech
The U.S. economy and financial system in an international context

Remarks at the Institute of International Bankers Annual General Meeting, New York City.
Speech , Paper 174

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