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The advantage of flexible targeting rules
Ferrero, Andrea (2008-07-01)
This paper investigates the consequences of debt stabilization for inflation targeting. If the monetary authority perfectly stabilizes inflation while the fiscal authority holds constant the real value of debt at maturity, the equilibrium dynamics might be indeterminate. However, determinacy can be restored by committing to targeting rules for either monetary or fiscal policy that include a concern for stabilization of the output gap. In solving the indeterminacy problem, flexible inflation targeting appears to be more robust than flexible debt targeting to alternative parameter ...
Staff Reports , Paper 339

Report
Capital controls: a normative analysis
De Paoli, Bianca; Lipinska, Anna (2013)
Countries' concerns about the value of their currency have been studied and documented extensively in the literature. Capital controls can be?and often are?used as a tool to manage exchange rate fluctuations. This paper investigates whether countries can benefit from using such a tool. We develop a welfare-based analysis of whether (or, in fact, how) countries should tax international borrowing. Our results suggest that restricting international capital flows through the use of these taxes can be beneficial for individual countries, although it would limit cross-border pooling of risk. The ...
Staff Reports , Paper 600

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An investigation of the gains from commitment in monetary policy
Schaumburg, Ernst; Tambalotti, Andrea (2003-08-01)
This paper proposes a simple framework for analyzing a continuum of monetary policy rules characterized by differing degrees of credibility, in which commitment and discretion become special cases of what we call quasi commitment. The monetary policy authority is assumed to formulate optimal commitment plans, to be tempted to renege on them, and to succumb to this temptation with a constant exogenous probability known to the private sector. By interpreting this probability as a continuous measure of the (lack of) credibility of the monetary policy authority, we investigate the welfare effect ...
Staff Reports , Paper 171

Report
The cost of business cycles for unskilled workers
Mukoyama, Toshihiko; Sahin, Aysegül (2005-07-01)
This paper reconsiders the cost of business cycles under incomplete markets. Primarily, we focus on the heterogeneity in the cost of business cycles among agents with different skill levels. Unskilled workers are subject to a much larger risk of unemployment during recessions than are skilled workers. Moreover, unskilled workers earn less income, which limits their ability to self-insure. We examine how this heterogeneity in unemployment risk and income translates into heterogeneity in the cost of business cycles. We set up a dynamic general equilibrium model with incomplete markets, in which ...
Staff Reports , Paper 214

Working Paper
Wage Inequality and Job Stability
Pessoa de Araujo, Ana Luisa (2017-12-05)
How much wage inequality in Brazil is caused by firing costs? To answer this question, I develop and estimate a general equilibrium search and matching model with heterogeneous layoff rates among firms. Using matched employer-employee data from Brazil, I estimate the model, and I find that it replicates the observed residual wage inequality in the data. I simulate a counterfactual removal of existing firing costs, and I find that residual wage inequality drops by 26% as measured by wage variance and by 4.4% as measured by the p95-p5 ratio among 25- to 55-year-old males working in the private ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 5

Working Paper
Earnings Inequality and the Minimum Wage: Evidence from Brazil
Engbom, Niklas; Moser, Christian (2018-03-12)
We show that an increase in the minimum wage can have large effects throughout the earnings distribution, using a combination of theory and evidence. To this end, we develop an equilibrium search model featuring empirically relevant worker and firm heterogeneity. The minimum wage induces firms to adjust their equilibrium wage and vacancy policies, leading to spillovers on higher wages. We use the estimated model to evaluate the effects of a 119 percent increase in the real minimum wage in Brazil from 1996 to 2012. The policy change explains a large decline in earnings inequality, with ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 7

Working Paper
An Analysis of the Literature on International Unconventional Monetary Policy
Neely, Christopher J.; Bhattarai, Saroj (2020-05-04)
This paper evaluates the literature on international unconventional monetary policies (UMP). Introducing market segmentation, limits-to-arbitrage, and time-consistent policy in standard models permits a theoretical role for UMP. Empirical studies provide compelling evidence that UMP influenced international asset prices and tail-risk in the desired manner. Calibrated modeling and vector autoregressive (VAR) exercises imply that these policies also improved macroeconomic outcomes. We assess the recent debate on the empirical evidence and discuss central bank assessments of UMP. Despite ...
Working Papers , Paper 2016-021

Working Paper
An Analysis of the Literature on International Unconventional Monetary Policy
Bhattarai, Saroj; Neely, Christopher J. (2016-11-28)
This paper critically evaluates the literature on international unconventional monetary policies. We begin by reviewing the theories of how such heterogeneous policies could work. Empirically, event studies provide compelling evidence that international asset purchase announcements have strongly influenced international bond yields, exchange rates, and equity prices in the desired manner and curtailed market perceptions of extreme events. Calibrated modeling and vector autoregressive (VAR) exercises imply that these policies significantly improved macroeconomic outcomes, raising output and ...
Working Papers , Paper 2016-21

Working Paper
Insurance and Inequality with Persistent Private Information
Bloedel, Alex; Krishna, R. Vijay; Leukhina, Oksana (2018-09-07)
We study optimal insurance contracts for an agent with Markovian private information. Our main results characterize the implications of constrained efficiency for long-run welfare and inequality. Under minimal technical conditions, there is Absolute Immiseration: in the long run, the agent?s consumption and utility converge to their lower bounds. When types are persistent and utility is unbounded below, there is Relative Immiseration: low-type agents are immiserated at a faster rate than high-type agents, and ?pathwise welfare inequality? grows without bound. These results extend and ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-20

Working Paper
The Value of Constraints on Discretionary Government Policy
Martin, Fernando M. (2016-02-27)
This paper investigates how institutional constraints discipline the behavior of discretionary governments subject to an expenditure bias. The focus is on constraints implemented in actual economies: monetary policy targets, limits on the deficit and debt ceilings. For a variety of aggregate shocks considered, the best policy is to impose a minimum primary surplus of about half a percent of output. Most welfare gains from constraining government behavior during normal times, which to a large extent is sufficient to discipline policy in adverse times. Monetary policy targets are not generally ...
Working Papers , Paper 2016-19

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