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Working Paper
Quantifying "Quantitative Tightening" (QT): How Many Rate Hikes Is QT Equivalent To?
Wei, Bin
(2022-07-15)
How many interest rate hikes is quantitative tightening (QT) equivalent to? In this paper, I examine this question based on the preferred-habitat model in Vayanos and Vila (2021). I define the equivalence between rate hikes and QT such that they both have the same impact on the 10-year yield. Based on the model calibrated to fit the nominal Treasury data between 1999 and 2022, I show that a passive roll-off of $2.2 trillion over three years is equivalent to an increase of 29 basis points in the current federal funds rate at normal times. However, during a crisis period with risk aversion ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 2022-8
Working Paper
U.S. Unconventional Monetary Policy and Transmission to Emerging Market Economies
Bowman, David; Londono, Juan M.; Sapriza, Horacio
(2014-06-23)
We investigate the effects of U.S. unconventional monetary policies on sovereign yields, foreign exchange rates, and stock prices in emerging market economies (EMEs), and we analyze how these effects depend on country-specifc characteristics. We find that, although EME asset prices, mainly those of sovereign bonds, responded strongly to unconventional monetary policy announcements, these responses were not outsized with respect to a model that takes into account each country's time-varying vulnerability to U.S. interest rates affected by monetary policy shocks.
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 1109
Working Paper
The Federal Reserve’s Evolving Monetary Policy Implementation Framework: 1914-1923
Chabot, Benjamin
(2017-01-18)
The Federal Reserve has relied upon a number of different monetary policy implementation frameworks throughout its history. This paper describes the original implementation framework that evolved between 1914 and 1923 in response to new policy objectives and changing market conditions.
Working Paper Series
, Paper WP-2017-1
Working Paper
How to Starve the Beast: Fiscal Policy Rules
Martin, Fernando M.
(2022-09-14)
Countries have widely imposed fiscal rules designed to constrain government spending and ensure fiscal responsibility. This paper studies the effectiveness and welfare implications of revenue, deficit and debt rules when governments are discretionary and prone to overspending. The optimal prescription is a revenue ceiling coupled with a balance budget requirement. For the U.S., the optimal revenue ceiling is about 15% of output, 3 percentage points below the postwar average. Most of the benefits can still be reaped with a milder constraint or escape clauses during adverse times. Imposing a ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2019-026
Working Paper
The Effects of the Federal Reserve Chair’s Testimony on Interest Rates and Stock Prices
Gordon, Matthew V.; Lunsford, Kurt Graden
(2023-11-13)
We study how congressional testimony about monetary policy by the Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System affects interest rates and stock prices. First, we study testimony associated with the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Reports (MPRs) to Congress. Testimony for a particular MPR is usually given on two days, one day for each chamber of Congress. We separately study the first day and second day of MPR testimony. We also study testimonies not associated with MPRs but that are still related to monetary policy. We find that first-day MPR testimonies cause the largest ...
Working Papers
, Paper 23-26
Working Paper
Negative Interest Rate Policy and the Influence of Macroeconomic News on Yields
Hara, Naoko; Fatum, Rasmus; Yamamoto, Yohei
(2019-01-27)
We consider the influence of domestic and U.S. macroeconomic news surprises on daily bond yields over the January 1999 to January 2018 period for four advanced Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) economies ? Germany, Japan, Sweden and Switzerland. Our results suggest that the influence of macroeconomic news surprises is for all four countries under study during the NIRP period non-existent or noticeably weaker than during the preceding Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) period. Our results are consistent with the suggestion that NIRP is characterized by a lower bound that is no less ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 354
Working Paper
Quantitative Easing and Bank Risk Taking: Evidence from Lending
Kandrac, John; Schlusche, Bernd
(2017-10-12)
We empirically assess the effect of reserve accumulation as a result of quantitative easing (QE) on bank-level lending and risk taking activity. To overcome the endogeneity of bank-level reserve holdings to banks' other portfolio decisions, we employ instruments made available by a regulatory change that strongly influenced the distribution of reserves in the banking system. Consistent with theories of the portfolio substitution channel in which the transmission of QE depends in part on reserve creation itself, we document that reserves created in two distinct QE programs led to higher total ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2017-125
Working Paper
What Caused the Great Recession in the Eurozone?
Hetzel, Robert L.
(2016-08-23)
Since 2008, the Eurozone has undergone two recessions, which together constitute the "Great Recession." The combination of a decline in output and disinflation as well as a persistent decline in inflation suggests that contractionary monetary policy was one factor. This paper makes two methodological points. First, in analyzing the causes of the Great Recession, it is important to distinguish between credit and monetary policy. Second, a multiplicity of estimated models can "explain" the Great Recession. In practice, economists choose between models through an associated narrative that ...
Working Paper
, Paper 16-10
Working Paper
Pandemic Recession Dynamics: The Role of Monetary Policy in Shifting a U-Shaped Recession to a V-Shaped Rebound
Kiley, Michael T.
(2020-10-07)
COVID-19 has depressed economic activity around the world. The initial contraction may be amplified by the limited space for conventional monetary policy actions to support recovery implied by the low level of nominal interest rates recently. Model simulations assuming an initial contraction in output of 10 percent suggest several policy lessons. Adverse effects of constrained monetary policy space are large, changing a V-shaped rebound into a deep U-shaped recession absent large-scale Quantitative Easing (QE). Additionally, the medium-term scarring on economic potential can be large, and ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2020-083
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Federal Reserve System 11 items
Financial crisis 11 items
bank runs 11 items
Great inflation 10 items
Volcker 10 items
Discount window 10 items
Inflation expectations 10 items
Monetary policy tools 9 items
Taylor rule 9 items
payments 9 items
systemic risk 9 items
Funding for lending 8 items
austerity 8 items
debt sustainability 8 items
fiscal rules 8 items
Financial crises 8 items
central bank credibility 8 items
liquidity risk 8 items
repo market 8 items
Inflation target 8 items
bank lending 8 items
central banking 8 items
Rules 7 items
event study 7 items
interest on reserves 7 items
Lender of last resort 7 items
banks 7 items
central bank balance sheets 7 items
Federal Open Market Committee 6 items
reserve requirements 6 items
Bayesian estimation 6 items
Fiscal policy 6 items
High-frequency identification 6 items
Leverage 6 items
Repo 6 items
balance sheet policies 6 items
banking panics 6 items
liquidity traps 6 items
money markets 6 items
asset prices 6 items
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) 5 items
PPP 5 items
Rules and discretion 5 items
financial intermediation 5 items
quantitative tightening 5 items
tabletop exercise 5 items
term structure modeling 5 items
Banking 5 items
Central bank independence 5 items
Collateral 5 items
Credit 5 items
Liquidity trap 5 items
transparency 5 items
Central Bank 5 items
Asset purchases 4 items
Causal estimates of monetary policy 4 items
Expectations 4 items
GCF Repo 4 items
Global Financial Crisis 2007–09 4 items
Monetary surprises 4 items
Phillips curve 4 items
Stress tests 4 items
Treasury market 4 items
e-money 4 items
excess reserves 4 items
federal funds rates 4 items
financial fragility 4 items
financial market frictions 4 items
forecasts 4 items
liftoff 4 items
money market funds 4 items
reserves 4 items
term structure 4 items
tri-party repo reforms 4 items
zero lower bound (ZLB) 4 items
Bank Profitability 4 items
Central bank communication 4 items
Dual Mandate 4 items
Margin 4 items
Money 4 items
Negative Interest Rates 4 items
Open market operations 4 items
Remittances 4 items
Reserve balances 4 items
Uncertainty 4 items
ample reserve supply 4 items
digital currencies 4 items
Asset quality review 3 items
Corporate real effects from bank credit 3 items
Costs of safe assets 3 items
Credit crunch 3 items
DSGE models 3 items
Demand shocks 3 items
Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve System 3 items
GSEs 3 items
Hysteresis 3 items
Inequality 3 items
MBS 3 items
Macroeconomics 3 items
Main Street 3 items
Main Street Lending Program 3 items
Monetarism 3 items
Money market 3 items
Negative interest rate 3 items
Optimal policy 3 items
Over-borrowing 3 items
QE 3 items
Ricardian equivalence 3 items
Risk-masking 3 items
Supervision 3 items
TBA 3 items
TRACE 3 items
U.S. monetary policy 3 items
Under-borrowing 3 items
bank liquidity regulation 3 items
banknotes 3 items
capital adequacy 3 items
central banks and their policies 3 items
conditional encompassing 3 items
deposit insurance 3 items
eurodollar futures 3 items
excess bond premium 3 items
federal funds 3 items
financial overheating 3 items
financial services 3 items
governance 3 items
heterogeneity 3 items
interbank markets 3 items
interest on excess reserves 3 items
interest rate rules 3 items
lenders of last resort 3 items
liquidity regulations 3 items
monetary policy framework 3 items
monetary policy transmission 3 items
money multiplier 3 items
overnight RRP 3 items
public banks 3 items
regulation 3 items
repurchase agreements 3 items
reserve demand 3 items
reverse repos 3 items
risk 3 items
stigma 3 items
structural changes 3 items
time-varying parameters 3 items
tri-party repos 3 items
yield curves 3 items
Balance sheet policy 3 items
Credit easing 3 items
asymmetric information 3 items
bank capital 3 items
bank notes 3 items
contagion 3 items
Activity estimates 2 items
Agency MBS 2 items
Alternative data 2 items
Attention 2 items
Bailouts 2 items
Balance sheet management 2 items
Bank disintermediation 2 items
Basel III 2 items
Bayesian VARs 2 items
Best critical region 2 items
CCPs 2 items
COVID-19 pandemic 2 items
Capital tax rate 2 items
Capital-skill complementarity 2 items
Censoring 2 items
Central bank balance sheet 2 items
Central counterparties 2 items
Collateral constraints 2 items
Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) 2 items
Corporate Credit Facilities 2 items
Credibility 2 items
DSGE Model 2 items
Density forecasting 2 items
Direct lending programs 2 items
Employment 2 items
Endogenous monetary policy 2 items
FOMC communications 2 items
Fan charts 2 items
Fed 2 items
Fed information 2 items
Fed-Treasury Accord 2 items
Federal Reserve Act 2 items
Federal Reserve lending facilities 2 items
Financial inclusion 2 items
Financial markets 2 items
Financial stability and risk 2 items
Financial systems 2 items
Fiscal theory of the price level 2 items
Forecast evaluation 2 items
Forecast uncertainty 2 items
Forecasting 2 items
Great Recession 2 items
Helicopter drops 2 items
Household Survey 2 items
Household debt 2 items
Japan 2 items
Liquidity (Economics) 2 items
Macroeconomic expectations 2 items
Model comparison 2 items
Monetary policy strategy 2 items
Mortgages 2 items
National Banking system 2 items
Natural Rate 2 items
Natural language processing 2 items
New Keynesian model 2 items
Optimal monetary policy 2 items
Outliers 2 items
PPPLF 2 items
Paycheck ProtectionProgram 2 items
Price level targeting 2 items
Procyclicality 2 items
QT 2 items
Researcher bias 2 items
Reserve Bank Organization Committee 2 items
Risk Taking 2 items
Sacrifice Ratio 2 items
Single Security Initiative 2 items
Skewed densities 2 items
Sovereign Debt 2 items
Taylor principle 2 items
Time inconsistency 2 items
Transmission mechanism 2 items
Treasury 2 items
UMBS 2 items
Welfare implications 2 items
active vs passive policies 2 items
administered rates 2 items
ample reserves 2 items
bank reserves 2 items
bank-specific information 2 items
banking regulations 2 items
bias 2 items
central bank communications 2 items
central bank digital currencies 2 items
central bank information 2 items
central bank reserves 2 items
clearinghouses 2 items
coordination 2 items
credit market support facilities 2 items
credit risks 2 items
cryptocurrencies 2 items
currency 2 items
currency premium 2 items
debt 2 items
debt management 2 items
durable and nondurable goods consumption 2 items
effective lower bound (ELB) 2 items
external instruments 2 items
federal funds rate 2 items
fiscal dominance 2 items
foreign exchange 2 items
heterogeneous expectations 2 items
high frequency identification 2 items
identification 2 items
indeterminacy 2 items
interbank networks 2 items
investment banking 2 items
laboratory experiments 2 items
large-scale asset purchase programs 2 items
large-scale asset purchases 2 items
liquidity premium 2 items
liquidity-saving mechanisms 2 items
macro finance 2 items
market discipline 2 items
municipal debt 2 items
networks 2 items
non-neutrality of money 2 items
optimal deposit contract 2 items
output-inflation trade-off 2 items
over-the-counter markets 2 items
overnight reverse repo (ON RRP) 2 items
particle filter 2 items
policy rules 2 items
preferred-habitat 2 items
private stablecoins 2 items
proxy structural VAR 2 items
public signals 2 items
purchase effects 2 items
quantile regression 2 items
rate hikes 2 items
real interest rates 2 items
real-time gross settlement 2 items
relationship lending 2 items
reserves management 2 items
reverse repo 2 items
risk-taking 2 items
runs 2 items
securities dealers 2 items
securitization 2 items
shadow rate 2 items
smart contracts 2 items
specie flows 2 items
stability of the Phillips curve 2 items
stochastic volatility 2 items
structural vector autoregressions 2 items
survey data 2 items
synthetic control method 2 items
term structures 2 items
unpleasant monetarist arithmetic 2 items
unspanned macro factors 2 items
web 3.0 2 items
10-year Treasury yield 1 items
13(3) 1 items
2023 banking turmoil 1 items
ATSM 1 items
Abenomics 1 items
Adam Posen 1 items
Agency mortgage-backed securities 1 items
Aldrich Plan 1 items
Alternative monetary policy strategies 1 items
Ample-reserves regime 1 items
Asset booms and busts 1 items
Asset-backed financing 1 items
Automatic rules 1 items
Autometrics 1 items
Balance sheet costs 1 items
Balance sheet policy surprises 1 items
Bank Credit Supply 1 items
Bank Failure 1 items
Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) 1 items
Bank Wholesale Funding 1 items
Bank capital requirements 1 items
Bank deposits 1 items
Bank of England 1 items
Bank risk 1 items
Bank suspension 1 items
Bank-Sovereign Nexus 1 items
Banking crises 1 items
Banking crisis 1 items
Bayesian inference 1 items
Bayesian model comparison 1 items
Belief Formation 1 items
Blue Chip 1 items
Bond Yields 1 items
Boundary problem 1 items
Broker-dealers 1 items
Business cycle fluctuations 1 items
Business cycles 1 items
CDS 1 items
CDS spreads 1 items
Censored regression 1 items
Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) 1 items
Central Counterparties (CCPs) 1 items
Central bank coordination 1 items
Central bank lending 1 items
Central bank lending authority 1 items
Central bank lending facilities 1 items
Central bank mandate 1 items
Central bank speeches 1 items
Commitment policies 1 items
Committee on the Global Financial System 1 items
Commodity prices 1 items
Comprehensive Liquidity Analysis and Review (CLAR) 1 items
Confidence in Central Banks 1 items
Consumer Price Index 1 items
Consumer sentiments 1 items
Core PCE prices 1 items
Corporate bond market 1 items
Costs of inflation 1 items
Countercyclical capital buffer 1 items
Countercyclical policy 1 items
Credit Supply 1 items
Credit boom 1 items
Credit channel of monetary policy 1 items
Credit derivatives 1 items
Credit gap 1 items
Credit programs 1 items
Credit risk 1 items
Crisis prevention 1 items
DELR 1 items
DFAST stress tests 1 items
Danmarks Nationalbank (DNB) 1 items
Dealers 1 items
Debt issuance 1 items
Deflation 1 items
Deflationary Bias 1 items
Delegation 1 items
Delphic forward guidance 1 items
Demand-driven recession 1 items
Dependence of policy on information 1 items
Deposit outflows 1 items
Depository institutions 1 items
Deregulation 1 items
Disagreement 1 items
Discounted euler equation 1 items
Discounted phillips curve 1 items
Dispersed information 1 items
Distortionary financing 1 items
Divisia 1 items
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