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Journal Article
The financial market effect of FOMC minutes
Rosa, Carlo (2013-12)
The influence of the Federal Reserve?s unanticipated target rate decisions on U.S. asset prices has been the subject of numerous studies. More recently, researchers have looked at the asset price response to statements issued by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Yet, despite a vast and growing body of evidence on the financial market effect of monetary news released on FOMC meeting days, little is known about the real-time response of U.S. asset prices to the information contained in central bank minutes. This article fills the gap by using a novel, high-frequency data set to examine ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue Dec , Pages 67-81

Discussion Paper
Choosing the Right Policy in Real Time (Why That’s Not Easy)
Schorfheide, Frank; Del Negro, Marco; Hasegawa, Raiden B. (2015-03-25)
As an economist, you make policy recommendations at any point in time that depend on what model of the economy you have in mind and on your assessment of the state of the economy. One can see these points play out in the current discussion about the timing of interest rate liftoff and the speed of the subsequent renormalization. If you think nominal rigidities are not all that important, you are likely to conclude that accommodative policies won’t do much for growth but will generate inflation. Similarly, if you are convinced that the economy is already firing on all cylinders, you may see ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150325

Report
Let's talk about it: what policy tools should the Fed \\"normally\\" use?
Barnes, Michelle L. (2014-12-29)
During the onset of a very severe financial and economic crisis in 2008, the federal funds rate reached the zero lower bound (ZLB). With this primary monetary policy tool therefore rendered ineffective, in November 2008 the Federal Reserve started to use its balance sheet as an alternative policy tool when it began the large-scale asset purchases. Now attention is turning to how the Fed should transition back to a more conventional monetary policy stance. Largely missing from these discussions about the Fed's "exit strategy" is a consideration that perhaps it should retain, not discard, ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 14-12

Report
The equilibrium real policy rate through the lens of standard growth models
Wang, J. Christina; Sichel, Daniel E. (2017-11-17)
The long-run equilibrium real policy rate is a key concept in monetary economics and an important input into monetary policy decision-making. It has gained particular prominence lately as the Federal Reserve continues to normalize monetary policy. In this study, we assess the evolution, current level, and prospective values of this equilibrium rate within the framework of standard growth models. Our analysis considers as a baseline the single-sector Solow model, but it places more emphasis on the multi-sector neoclassical growth model, which better fits the data over the past three decades. ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 17-6

Report
Uncovering covered interest parity: the role of bank regulation and monetary policy
Puria, Kovid; Bräuning, Falk (2017-06-01)
We analyze the factors underlying the recent deviations from covered interest parity. We show that these deviations can be explained by tighter post-crisis bank capital regulations that made the provision of foreign exchange swaps more costly. Moreover, the recent monetary policy and related interest rate divergence between the United States and other major foreign countries has led to a surge in demand for swapping low interest rate currencies into the U.S. dollar. Given the higher bank balance sheet costs resulting from these regulatory changes, the increased demand for U.S. dollars in the ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 17-3

Report
The liquidity effect of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet reduction on short-term interest rates
Brauning, Falk (2017-10-01)
I examine the impact of the Federal Reserve?s balance sheet reduction on short-term interest rates emanating from the declining supply of reserve balances. Using an exogenous shift in the supply of reserves, I estimate that by January 2019, when the Fed will have reduced its portfolio by $500 billion, the overnight repurchase agreement (repo) spread (relative to the lower bound of the federal funds target range) will be 10 basis points higher and the fed funds spread will be 2 basis points higher than in October 2017, all else being equal. I also find that a declining supply of reserve ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 18-1

Briefing
The Michigan Surveys of Consumers and consumer spending
Barnes, Michelle L.; Olivei, Giovanni P. (2013)
We provide summary measures for a broad set of questions from the Michigan Surveys of Consumers. These measures summarize consumers' attitudes and expectations with respect to income, wealth, prices, and interest rates. They contain information that goes beyond the information captured by the Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, which is constructed from five questions in the same survey. We show that the summary measures have some explanatory power for aggregate consumption behavior over the period from 1987 to the present, even when controlling for economic fundamentals. The explanatory ...
Public Policy Brief

Discussion Paper
Is monetary policy overburdened?
Orphanides, Athanasios (2013-08-25)
Following the experience of the global financial crisis, central banks have been asked to undertake unprecedented responsibilities. Governments and the public appear to have high expectations that monetary policy can provide solutions to problems that do not necessarily fit in the realm of traditional monetary policy. This paper examines three broad public policy goals that may overburden monetary policy: full employment; fiscal sustainability; and financial stability. While central banks have a crucial position in public policy, the appropriate policy mix also involves other institutions, ...
Public Policy Discussion Paper , Paper 13-8

Working Paper
International Financial Spillovers to Emerging Market Economies: How Important Are Economic Fundamentals?
Ahmed, Shaghil; Coulibaly, Brahima; Zlate, Andrei (2017-06-05)
We assess the importance of economic fundamentals in the transmission of international shocks to financial markets in various emerging market economies (EMEs), covering the so-called taper-tantrum episode of 2013 and seven other episodes of severe EME-wide financial stress since the mid-1990s. Cross-country regressions lead us to the following results: (1) EMEs with relatively better economic fundamentals suffered less deterioration in financial markets during the 2013 taper-tantrum episode. (2) Differentiation among EMEs set in relatively early and persisted through this episode. (3) During ...
Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers , Paper RPA 17-2

Speech
Recent developments in monetary policy implementation
Potter, Simon M. (2013-12-02)
Remarks before the Money Marketeers of New York University, New York City
Speech , Paper 127

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