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Working Paper
Inflation dynamics during the financial crisis
Zakrajšek, Egon; Schoenle, Raphael; Gilchrist, Simon; Sim, Jae W. (2015-11-01)
Firms with limited internal liquidity significantly increased prices in 2008, while their liquidity unconstrained counterparts slashed prices. Differences in the firms' price-setting behavior were concentrated in sectors likely characterized by customer markets. The authors develop a model in which firms face financial frictions while setting prices in a customer-markets setting. Financial distortions create an incentive for firms to raise prices in response to adverse demand or financial shocks. These results reflect the firms' reaction to preserve internal liquidity and avoid accessing ...
FRB Atlanta CQER Working Paper , Paper 2015-4

Working Paper
Can't Pay or Won't Pay? Unemployment, Negative Equity, and Strategic Default
Gerardi, Kristopher S.; Herkenhoff, Kyle F.; Ohanian, Lee E.; Willen, Paul S. (2013-08-01)
This paper exploits matched data from the PSID on borrower mortgages with income and demographic data to quantify the relative importance of negative equity, versus lack of ability to pay, as affecting default between 2009 and 2013. These data allow us to construct household budgets sets that provide better measures of ability to pay. We use instrumental variables to quantify the impact of ability to pay, including job loss and disability, versus negative equity. Changes in ability to pay have the largest estimated effects. Job loss has an equivalent effect on default likelihood as a 35 ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2013-04

Working Paper
The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions
Kilian, Lutz; Vigfusson, Robert J. (2014-08-20)
Although oil price shocks have long been viewed as one of the leading candidates for explaining U.S. recessions, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which oil price shocks explain recessions. We provide a formal analysis of this question with special attention to the possible role of net oil price increases in amplifying the transmission of oil price shocks. We quantify the conditional recessionary effect of oil price shocks in the net oil price increase model for all episodes of net oil price increases since the mid-1970s. Compared to the linear model, the cumulative effect of ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1114

Working Paper
Revisiting Gertler-Gilchrist Evidence on the Behavior of Small and Large Firms
Sanchez, Juan M.; Kudlyak, Marianna (2016-04-13)
Gertler and Gilchrist (1994) provide evidence for the prevailing view that adverse shocks are propagated via credit constraints of small firms. We revisit the behavior of small versus large firms during the episodes of credit disruption andrecessions in the sample extended to cover the 2007-09 economic crisis. We find that large firms' short-term debt and sales contracted relatively more than those of small firms during the 2007-09 episode. Furthermore, the short-term debt of large firms also contracted relatively more in the previous tight money episodes if one takes into account the longer ...
Working Paper , Paper 16-5

Working Paper
Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts
Taylor, Alan M.; Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz (2016-10-12)
In advanced economies, a century-long near-stable ratio of credit to GDP gave way to rapid financialization and surging leverage in the last forty years. This ?financial hockey stick? coincides with shifts in foundational macroeconomic relationships beyond the widely-noted return of macroeconomic fragility and crisis risk. Leverage is correlated with central business cycle moments, which we can document thanks to a decade-long international and historical data collection effort. More financialized economies exhibit somewhat less real volatility, but also lower growth, more tail risk, as well ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2016-23

Working Paper
Did Doubling Reserve Requirements Cause the 1937-38 Recession? New Evidence on the Impact of Reserve Requirements on Bank Reserve Demand and Lending
Calomiris, Charles W.; Mason, Joseph R.; Wheelock, David C. (2023-03-17)
In 1936-37, the Federal Reserve doubled member banks' reserve requirements. Friedman and Schwartz (1963) famously argued that the doubling increased reserve demand and forced the money supply to contract, which they argued caused the recession of 1937-38. Using a new database on individual banks, we show that higher reserve requirements did not generally increase banks' reserve demand or contract lending because reserve requirements were not binding for most banks. Aggregate effects on credit supply from reserve requirement increases were therefore economically small and statistically zero.
Working Papers , Paper 2022-011

Journal Article
Credit Expansion and Markups
Chien, YiLi; Lee, Hyungsuk; Lee, Junsang (2022-10-21)
This article documents new empirical facts about the effects of credit expansion on the aggregate markup and markup dispersion in the United States. We use U.S. macroeconomic data and Jordà's local projection and single-equation estimation methods. The results for both methods show that the aggregate markup and markup dispersion increase in response to both a firm debt shock and a household debt shock. The previous literature mostly focused on the effect of firm debt financing on firm markups. Extending previous research, our study shows that household credit expansion also plays a role in ...
Review , Volume 104 , Issue 4 , Pages 297-316

Working Paper
How Have Banks Been Managing the Composition of High-Quality Liquid Assets?
Ihrig, Jane E.; Kim, Edward; Kumbhat, Ashish; Vojtech, Cindy M.; Weinbach, Gretchen C. (2017-08-30)
We study banks' post-crisis liquidity management. We construct time series of U.S. banks' holdings of high-quality liquid assets (HQLA) and examine how these assets have been managed in recent years to comply with the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) requirement. We find that, in becoming LCR compliant, banks initially ramped up their stock of reserve balances. However, once the requirement was met, some banks subsequently shifted the compositions of their liquid portfolios significantly. This raises the question: What drives the compositions of banks? HQLA? We show that a risk-return framework ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-092

Working Paper
Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences
Taylor, Alan M.; Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz (2013)
Two separate narratives have emerged in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. One speaks of private financial excess and the key role of the banking system in leveraging and deleveraging the economy. The other emphasizes the public sector balance sheet over the private and worries about the risks of lax fiscal policies. However, the two may interact in important and understudied ways. This paper studies the co-evolution of public and private sector debt in advanced countries since 1870. We find that in advanced economies financial stability risks have come from private sector credit booms ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2013-37

Working Paper
The Supply and Demand of Agricultural Loans
Scott, Francisco; Kuethe, Todd; Kreitman, Ty; Oppedahl, David B. (2022-07-14)
Credit plays a critical role in the agricultural sector, but many studies suggest that farmers are credit constrained. We examine the degree to which changes in non-real-estate agricultural loans at commercial banks are driven by changes in supply and demand, using information provided by agricultural lending surveys conducted by the Federal Reserve Banks of Chicago, Kansas City, and Minneapolis. Building on recent studies of loan officer opinion surveys, we estimate the changes in agricultural loan supply and demand using an unbalanced panel of 1,024 banks across 191 quarters ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 22-06

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