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Working Paper
Global Stablecoins: Monetary Policy Implementation Considerations from the U.S. Perspective
Lowe, David; Malloy, Matthew (2021-03-22)
This note explores the potential effects of the widespread adoption of a global stablecoin (GSC) on key aggregate financial sector balance sheets in the United States. To do this, we map out cash flows of GSC transactions among financial sector entities using a stylized set of 't-accounts'. By analyzing these individual transactions, we infer aggregate and compositional effects on U.S. commercial banking sector and Federal Reserve balance sheets. Through this lens, we also consider how these balance sheet changes could affect monetary policy implementation, the demand for central bank ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2021-020

Working Paper
Inflation as a Fiscal Limit
Melosi, Leonardo; Bianchi, Francesco (2022-29-08)
Low and stable inflation requires an appropriate fiscal framework aimed at stabilizing government debt. Historically, trend inflation is critically influenced by actual or perceived changes to this framework, while cost-push shocks only account for short-lasting movements in inflation. Before the pandemic, a moderate level of fiscal inflation has counteracted deflationary pressures, helping the central bank to avoid deflation. The recent fiscal interventions in response to the Covid pandemic have altered the private sector’s beliefs about the fiscal framework, accelerating the recovery, but ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2022-37

Working Paper
When is Bad News Good News? U.S. Monetary Policy, Macroeconomic News, and Financial Conditions in Emerging Markets
Hoek, Jasper; Kamin, Steven B.; Yoldas, Emre (2020-01-31)
Rises in U.S. interest rates are often thought to generate adverse spillovers to emerging market economies (EMEs). We show that what appears to be bad news for EMEs might actually be good news, or at least not-so-bad news, depending on the source of the rise in U.S. interest rates. We present evidence that higher U.S. interest rates stemming from stronger U.S. growth generate only modest spillovers, while those stemming from a more hawkish Fed policy stance or inflationary pressures can lead to significant tightening of EME financial conditions. Our identification of the sources of U.S. rate ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1269

Working Paper
The Incredible Taylor Principle
Neumeyer, Pablo Andrés; Nicolini, Juan Pablo (2022-01-28)
This note addresses the role of the Taylor principle to solve the indeterminacy of equilibria in economies in which the monetary authority follows an interest rate rule. We first study the role of imposing two additional ad-hoc restrictions on the definition of equilibrium. Imposing the equilibrium to be locally unique never delivers a unique outcome. Imposing the equilibrium to be bounded, renders the outcome unique only if the inflation target is the Friedman rule. Second, we show that the Taylor principle is strongly time inconsistent - in a sense we make very precise - and that policies ...
Working Papers , Paper 790

Journal Article
A Short Introduction to the World of Cryptocurrencies
Berentsen, Aleksander; Schär, Fabian (2018)
In this article, we give a short introduction to cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology. The focus of the introduction is on Bitcoin, but many elements are shared by other blockchain implementations and alternative cryptoassets. The article covers the original idea and motivation, the mode of operation and possible applications of cryptocurrencies, and blockchain technology. We conclude that Bitcoin has a wide range of interesting applications and that cryptoassets are well suited to become an important asset class.
Review , Volume 100 , Issue 1 , Pages 1-16

Working Paper
Inflation targeting and the anchoring of inflation expectations: cross-country evidence from consensus forecasts
Davis, J. Scott; Presno, Ignacio (2014-05-13)
Using survey data of inflation expectations across a 36 developed and developing countries, this paper examines whether the adoption of inflation targeting has helped to anchor inflation expectations. We examine the response of inflation expectations following a shock to inflation, inflation expectations, and oil prices. For the 13 countries that adopted inflation targeting midway through the time period used in this study, there is a significant difference in the responses between the earlier and the later subperiods. A shock leads to a positive, significant, and persistent increase ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 174

Working Paper
The international monetary and financial system: a capital account perspective
Shin, Hyun Song; Borio, Claudio; James, Harold (2014-10-01)
In analysing the performance of the international monetary and financial system (IMFS), too much attention has been paid to the current account and far too little to the capital account. This is true of both formal analytical models and historical narratives. This approach may be reasonable when financial markets are highly segmented. But it is badly inadequate when they are closely integrated, as they have been most of the time since at least the second half of the 19th century. Zeroing on the capital account shifts the focus from the goods markets to asset markets and balance sheets. Seen ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 204

Working Paper
Taylor Rule Estimation by OLS
Carvalho, Carlos; Nechio, Fernanda; Tristao, Tiago (2021-09-01)
Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation of monetary policy rules produces potentially inconsistent estimates of policy parameters. The reason is that central banks react to variables, such as inflation and the output gap, that are endogenous to monetary policy shocks. Endogeneity implies a correlation between regressors and the error term – hence, an asymptotic bias. In principle, Instrumental Variables (IV) estimation can solve this endogeneity problem. In practice, however, IV estimation poses challenges, as the validity of potential instruments depends on various unobserved features of ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2018-11

Working Paper
Central bank credibility and the persistence of inflation and inflation expectations
Davis, J. Scott (2012)
This paper introduces a model where agents are unsure about the central bank's inflation target. They believe that the central bank's inflation target could lie between two extremes, and their beliefs vary depending on the central bank's stock of credibility. They form the expectations used in price and wage setting using this perceived inflation target, and they use past observations of inflation to update their beliefs about the credibility of the central bank. Thus a series of high inflation observations can lead them to believe (incorrectly) that the central bank has adopted a high ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 117

Working Paper
Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums
Jordà, Òscar; Ward, Felix; Taylor, Alan M.; Schularick, Moritz (2018-06-11)
This paper studies the synchronization of financial cycles across 17 advanced economies over the past 150 years. The comovement in credit, house prices, and equity prices has reached historical highs in the past three decades. The sharp increase in the comovement of global equity markets is particularly notable. We demonstrate that fluctuations in risk premiums, and not risk-free rates and dividends, account for a large part of the observed equity price synchronization after 1990. We also show that U.S. monetary policy has come to play an important role as a source of fluctuations in risk ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2018-5

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