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Journal Article
How Stable Is China’s Growth? Shedding Light on Sparse Data
Clark, Hunter L.; Dawson, Jeffrey B.; Pinkovskiy, Maxim L. (2020-10-01)
Policymakers, academics, and market participants have raised many questions in recent years over the accuracy of China’s official economic growth rates, both in terms of levels and volatility. This issue is of considerable importance for policymakers because fluctuations in China’s economic activity can have significant impacts on growth, employment, inflation, and other policy objectives, given China’s large shares of world output, trade, and commodity demand, and its rapidly growing role in global financial markets. This study addresses the question of growth volatility using a set of ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 26 , Issue 4 , Pages 1-38

Journal Article
International Trade Openness and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Cross-Country Data
Leibovici, Fernando (2019)
This article studies the extent to which open economies conduct monetary policy differently from economies that are relatively closed to international trade. I first estimate country-specific Taylor rules for 26 economies, following the approach of Clarida, Gal, and Gertler (1998 and 2000). Then, I examine the extent to which open economies assign systematically different weights to changes in economic outcomes, such as inflation and the output gap, than their closed economy counterparts do. I find that open economies respond less strongly to changes in expected inflation than relatively ...
Review , Volume 101 , Issue 2 , Pages 93-113

Working Paper
Monetary Stimulus amid the Infrastructure Investment Spree: Evidence from China's Loan-Level Data
Chen, Kaiji; Gao, Haoyu; Higgins, Patrick C.; Waggoner, Daniel F.; Zha, Tao (2020-08-27)
We study the impacts of the 2009 monetary stimulus and its interaction with infrastructure spending on credit allocation. We develop a two-stage estimation approach and apply it to China's loan-level data that covers all sectors in the economy. We find that except for the manufacturing sector, monetary stimulus itself did not favor state-owned enterprises (SOEs) over non-SOEs in credit access. Infrastructure investment driven by nonmonetary factors, however, enhanced the monetary transmission to bank credit allocated to local government financing vehicles in infrastructure and at the same ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2020-16

Report
Reconciling Bagehot with the Fed's response to September 11
Martin, Antoine (2005-08-01)
The nineteenth-century economist Walter Bagehot maintained that in order to prevent bank panics, a central bank should provide liquidity at a very high rate of interest. However, most of the theoretical literature on liquidity provision suggests that central banks should lend at an interest rate of zero. This latter recommendation is broadly consistent with the Federal Reserve?s behavior in the days following September 11, 2001. This paper shows that Bagehot?s recommendation can be reconciled with the Fed?s policy if one recognizes that Bagehot had in mind a commodity money regime in which ...
Staff Reports , Paper 217

Working Paper
Financial Institutions’ Business Models and the Global Transmission of Monetary Policy
Duijm, Patty; Frost, Jon; Haan, Jakob de; Haan, Leo de; Argimon, Isabel; Stebunovs, Viktors; Bonner, Clemens; Correa, Ricardo (2018-05-29)
Global financial institutions play an important role in channeling funds across countries and, therefore, transmitting monetary policy from one country to another. In this paper, we study whether such international transmission depends on financial institutions' business models. In particular, we use Dutch, Spanish, and U.S. confidential supervisory data to test whether the transmission operates differently through banks, insurance companies, and pension funds. We find marked heterogeneity in the transmission of monetary policy across the three types of institutions, across the three banking ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1228

Working Paper
On what states do prices depend? answers from ecuador
Benedict, Craig; Crucini, Mario J.; Landry, Anthony E. (2016-08-12)
In this paper, we argue that differences in the cost structure across sectors play an important role in the decision of firms to adjust their prices. We develop a menu cost model of pricing in which retail firms intermediate trade between producers and consumers. An important facet of our analysis is that the labor-cost share of retail production differs across goods and services in the consumption basket. For example, the price of gasoline at the retail pump is predicted to adjust more frequently and by more than the price of a haircut due to the high volatility in wholesale gasoline prices ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 278

Working Paper
Communicating Monetary Policy Rules
Foerster, Andrew T.; Davig, Troy A. (2017-04-01)
Sixty-two countries around the world use some form of inflation targeting as their monetary policy framework, though none of these countries express explicit policy rules. In contrast, models of monetary policy typically assume policy is set through a rule such as a Taylor rule or optimal monetary policy formulation. Central banks often connect theory with their practice by publishing inflation forecasts that can, in principle, implicitly convey their reaction function. We return to this central idea to show how a central bank can achieve the gains of a rule-based policy without publicly ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 17-4

Discussion Paper
Expanding the Toolkit: Facilities Established to Respond to the COVID-19 Pandemic
Kovner, Anna; Martin, Antoine (2020-09-22)
The Federal Reserve’s response to the coronavirus pandemic has been unprecedented in its size and scope. In a matter of months, the Fed has, among other things, cut the federal funds rate to the zero lower bound, purchased a large amount of Treasury securities and agency mortgage‑backed securities (MBS) and, together with the U.S. Treasury, introduced several lending facilities. Some of these facilities are very similar to ones introduced during the 2007-09 financial crisis while others are completely new. In this post, we argue that the new facilities, while unprecedented, are a natural ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200922

Working Paper
Gauging the Ability of the FOMC to Respond to Future Recessions
Reifschneider, David L. (2016)
Current forecasts suggest that the federal funds rate in the future is likely to level out at a rather low level by historical standards. If so, then the FOMC will have less ability than in the past to cut short-term interest rates in response to a future recession, suggesting a risk that economic downturns could turn out to be more severe as a result. However, simulations of the FRB/US model of a severe recession suggest that large-scale asset purchases and forward guidance about the future path of the federal funds rate should be able to provide enough additional accommodation to fully ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2016-068

Discussion Paper
Federal Reserve Agency CMBS Purchases
Gouny, Julia; Park, Woojung; Liu, Haoyang (2020-07-16)
On March 23, the Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York initiated plans to purchase agency commercial mortgage-backed securities (agency CMBS) at the direction of the FOMC in order to support smooth market functioning of the markets for these securities. This post describes the deterioration in market conditions that led to agency CMBS purchases, how the Desk conducts these operations, and how market functioning has improved since the start of the purchase operations.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200716

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