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Discussion Paper
Global Asset Prices and Taper Tantrum Revisited
Groen, Jan J. J. (2014-12-08)
Global asset market developments during the summer of 2013 have been attributed to changes in the outlook for U.S. monetary policy, starting with former Chairman Bernanke’s May 22 comments concerning future curtailing of the Federal Reserve’s asset purchase programs. A previous post found that the signal of a possible change in U.S. monetary policy coincided with an increase in global risk aversion which put downward pressure on global asset prices. This post revisits this episode by measuring the impact of changes in Fed’s expected policy rate path and in the economic outlook on the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20141208

Discussion Paper
Central Bank Solvency and Inflation
Del Negro, Marco; Sims, Christopher A. (2015-04-01)
The monetary base in the United States, defined as currency plus bank reserves, grew from about $800 billion in 2008 to $2 trillion in 2012, and to roughly $4 trillion at the end of 2014 (see chart below). Some commentators have viewed this increase in the monetary base as a sure harbinger of inflation. For example, one economist wrote that this “unprecedented expansion of the money supply could make the ’70s look benign.” These predictions of inflation rest on the monetarist argument that nominal income is proportional to the money supply. The fact that the money supply has expanded ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150401

Working Paper
When does the cost channel pose a challenge to inflation targeting central banks?
Smith, Andrew Lee (2015-06-01)
In a sticky-price model where firms finance their production inputs, there is both a lower and an upper bound on the central bank's inflation response necessary to rule out the possibility of self-fulfilling inflation expectations. This paper shows that real wage rigidities decrease this upper bound, but coefficients in the range of those on the Taylor rule place the economy well within the determinacy region. However, when there is time-variation in the share of firms who finance their inputs (i.e. Markov-Switching) then inflation targeting interest rate rules are often found to result in ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 15-6

Discussion Paper
Which Dealers Borrowed from the Fed’s Lender-of-Last-Resort Facilities?
Sarkar, Asani; Hrung, Warren B.; Fleming, Michael J.; Acharya, Viral V. (2017-05-10)
During the 2007-08 financial crisis, the Fed established lending facilities designed to improve market functioning by providing liquidity to nondepository financial institutions—the first lending targeted to this group since the 1930s. What was the financial condition of the dealers that borrowed from these facilities? Were they healthy institutions behaving opportunistically or were they genuinely distressed? In published research, we find that dealers in a weaker financial condition were more likely to participate than healthier ones and tended to borrow more. Our findings reinforce the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20170510

Report
The Monetary and Fiscal History of Argentina, 1960-2017
Nicolini, Juan Pablo; Buera, Francisco J. (2019-02-01)
In this chapter, we review the monetary and fiscal history of Argentina for the period 1960?2017, a time during which the country suffered several balance of payments crises, three periods of hyperinflation, two defaults on government debt, and three banking crises. All told, between 1969 and 1991, after several monetary reforms, thirteen zeros had been removed from its currency. We argue that all these events are the symptom of a recurrent problem: Argentina?s unsuccessful attempts to tame the fiscal deficit. An implication of our analysis is that the future economic evolution of Argentina ...
Staff Report , Paper 580

Working Paper
Optimal Monetary Policy for the Masses
Bullard, James B.; DiCecio, Riccardo (2019-03-22)
We study nominal GDP targeting as optimal monetary policy in a simple and stylized model with a credit market friction. The macroeconomy we study has considerable income inequality, which gives rise to a large private sector credit market. There is an important credit market friction because households participating in the credit market use non-state contingent nominal contracts (NSCNC). We extend previous results in this model by allowing for substantial intra-cohort heterogeneity. The heterogeneity is substantial enough that we can approach measured Gini coefficients for income, financial ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-9

Conference Paper
Navigating the Decade Ahead: Implications for Monetary Policy: Economic Policy Symposium, August 27-28,2020
Kansas City, Federal Reserve Bank (2020-08-27)
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole

Journal Article
How Stable Is China’s Growth? Shedding Light on Sparse Data
Clark, Hunter L.; Dawson, Jeffrey B.; Pinkovskiy, Maxim L. (2020-10-01)
Policymakers, academics, and market participants have raised many questions in recent years over the accuracy of China’s official economic growth rates, both in terms of levels and volatility. This issue is of considerable importance for policymakers because fluctuations in China’s economic activity can have significant impacts on growth, employment, inflation, and other policy objectives, given China’s large shares of world output, trade, and commodity demand, and its rapidly growing role in global financial markets. This study addresses the question of growth volatility using a set of ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 26 , Issue 4 , Pages 1-38

Journal Article
How Did the Fed Funds Market Change When Excess Reserves Were Abundant?
Nosal, Ed; McGowan, John (2020-03-01)
Prior to the 2007-2008 financial crisis, excess reserves in the U.S. banking system were scarce. After the financial crisis and up until early 2018, excess reserves were abundant. In this article, the authors document, analyze, and explain the differences in the performance of the federal funds market under the two different excess reserves frameworks.
Economic Policy Review , Volume 26 , Issue 1 , Pages 15

Working Paper
The impact of unconventional monetary policy on firm financing constraints: evidence from the maturity extension program
Yu, Edison; Ramcharan, Rodney; Foley-Fisher, Nathan (2015-08-13)
This paper investigates the impact of unconventional monetary policy on firm financing constraints. It focuses on the Federal Reserve?s maturity extension program (MEP), which was intended to lower longer-term rates and flatten the yield curve by reducing the supply of long-term government debt. Consistent with those models that emphasize bond market segmentation and limits to arbitrage, around the MEP?s announcement, stock prices rose most sharply for those firms that are more dependent on longer-term debt. These firms also issued more long-term debt during the MEP and expanded employment ...
Working Papers , Paper 15-30

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