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Discussion Paper
A DSGE Perspective on Safety, Liquidity, and Low Interest Rates
Tambalotti, Andrea; Giannoni, Marc; Gupta, Abhi; Giannone, Domenico; Li, Pearl; Del Negro, Marco
(2018-02-07)
The preceding two posts in this series documented that interest rates on safe and liquid assets, such as U.S. Treasury securities, have declined significantly in the past twenty years. Of course, short-term interest rates in the United States are under the control of the Federal Reserve, at least in nominal terms. So it is legitimate to ask, To what extent is this decline driven by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy? This post addresses this question by coupling the results presented in the previous post with those obtained from an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium ...
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20180207
Working Paper
Should monetary policy \"lean or clean\"?
White, William R.
(2009)
It has been contended by many in the central banking community that monetary policy would not be effective in "leaning" against the upswing of a credit cycle (the boom) but that lower interest rates would be effective in "cleaning" up (the bust) afterwards. In this paper, these two propositions (can't lean, but can clean) are examined and found seriously deficient. In particular, it is contended in this paper that monetary policies designed solely to deal with short term problems of insufficient demand could make medium term problems worse by encouraging a buildup of debt that cannot be ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 34
Report
Coarse Pricing Policies
Stevens, Luminita
(2015-11-23)
The puzzling behavior of inflation in the Great Recession and its aftermath has increased the need to better understand the constraints that firms face when setting prices. Using new data and theory, I demonstrate that each firm's choice of how much information to acquire to set prices determines aggregate price dynamics through the patterns of pricing at the micro level, and through the large heterogeneity in pricing policies across firms. Viewed through this lens, the behavior of prices in recent years becomes less puzzling, as firms endogenously adjust their information acquisition ...
Staff Report
, Paper 520
Discussion Paper
Deciphering Americans’ Views on Cryptocurrencies
Hundtofte , Sean; Orchinik, Reed; Martin, Antoine; Lee, Michael Junho
(2019-03-25)
Having witnessed the dramatic rise and fall in the value of cryptocurrencies over the past year, we wanted to learn more about what motivates people to participate in this market. To find out, we included a special set of questions in the May 2018 Survey of Consumer Expectations, a project of the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data. This blog post summarizes the results of that survey, shedding light on U.S. consumers’ depth of participation in cryptocurrencies and their motives for entering this new market.
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20190325
Working Paper
The Currency Dimension of the Bank Lending Channel in International Monetary Transmission
Takats, Elod; Temesvary, Judit
(2017-01)
We investigate how the use of a currency transmits monetary policy shocks in the global banking system. We use newly available unique data on the bilateral cross-border lending flows of 27 BIS-reporting lending banking systems to over 50 borrowing countries, broken down by currency denomination (USD, EUR and JPY). We have three main findings. First, monetary shocks in a currency significantly affect cross-border lending flows in that currency, even when neither the lending banking system nor the borrowing country uses that currency as their own. Second, this transmission works mainly through ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2017-001
Discussion Paper
Who Pays What First? Debt Prioritization during the COVID Pandemic
Plosser, Matthew; Conway, Jacob; Arnesen, William J.
(2021-03-29)
Since the depths of the Great Recession, household debt has increased from a low of $11 trillion in 2013 to more than $14 trillion in 2020 (see the New York Fed Household Debt and Credit Report). In this post, we examine how consumers’ repayment priorities have evolved over that time. Specifically, we seek to answer the following question: When consumers repay some but not all of their loans, which types do they choose to keep paying and which do they fall behind on?
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20210329
Discussion Paper
How Do the Fed's MBS Purchases Affect Credit Allocation?
Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam; Martin, Antoine
(2018-08-06)
It is sometimes said that the Federal Reserve should not engage in “credit allocation.” But what does credit allocation actually mean? And how do current Fed policies affect the allocation of credit? In this post, we describe two separate ideas often associated with credit allocation. The first idea is that the Fed should not take credit risk, which taxpayers would ultimately have to bear. The second idea is that the Fed’s actions should not influence the flow of credit to particular sectors. We consider whether the Fed’s holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) could ...
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20180806
Discussion Paper
Bitcoin Is Not a New Type of Money
Lee, Michael Junho; Martin, Antoine
(2020-06-18)
Bitcoin, and more generally, cryptocurrencies, are often described as a new type of money. In this post, we argue that this is a misconception. Bitcoin may be money, but it is not a new type of money. To see what is truly new about Bitcoin, it is useful to make a distinction between “money,” the asset that is being exchanged, and the “exchange mechanism,” that is, the method or process through which the asset is transferred. Doing so reveals that monies with properties similar to Bitcoin have existed for centuries. However, the ability to make electronic exchanges without a trusted ...
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20200618
Working Paper
Monetary Policy Effectiveness in China: Evidence from a FAVAR Model
Fernald, John G.; Spiegel, Mark M.; Swanson, Eric T.
(2014-02-24)
We use a broad set of Chinese economic indicators and a dynamic factor model framework to estimate Chinese economic activity and inflation as latent variables. We incorporate these latent variables into a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) to estimate the effects of Chinese monetary policy on the Chinese economy. A FAVAR approach is particularly well-suited to this analysis due to concerns about Chinese data quality, a lack of a long history for many series, and the rapid institutional and structural changes that China has undergone. We find that increases in bank reserve ...
Working Paper Series
, Paper 2014-7
Working Paper
The St. Louis Fed DSGE Model
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel
(2024-06)
This document contains a technical description of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model developed and maintained by the Research Division of the St. Louis Fed as one of its tools for forecasting and policy analysis. The St. Louis Fed model departs from an otherwise standard medium-scale New Keynesian DSGE model along two main dimensions: first, it allows for household heterogeneity, in the form of workers and capitalists, who have different marginal propensities to consume (MPC). Second, it explicitly models a fiscal sector endowed with multiple spending and revenue ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2024-014
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bank performance 1 items
banking regulations 1 items
beta 1 items
between-sector effect 1 items
bills only 1 items
bimetallism 1 items
bond yields 1 items
bonds 1 items
branches 1 items
bubbles 1 items
budget deficits 1 items
capital intensity 1 items
central bank 1 items
central bank collateral and counterparties 1 items
central bank digital currencies 1 items
central bank’s balance sheet 1 items
classification 1 items
commodity money 1 items
commodity prices 1 items
coordination 1 items
coronavirus 1 items
corporate bond market conditions 1 items
corporate bond market distress 1 items
corporate bond oustading 1 items
counterfactual VAR 1 items
credibility 1 items
credit allocation 1 items
credit cycle crisis 1 items
credit reallocation 1 items
credit relationships 1 items
credit reports 1 items
credit scoring 1 items
crises 1 items
cross-guarantee 1 items
crowding out 1 items
cryptoassets 1 items
cryptocurrencies 1 items
currencies 1 items
currency mismatch 1 items
currency returns 1 items
data 1 items
debt management 1 items
debt-to-GDP ratio 1 items
debts 1 items
demographics 1 items
deposits 1 items
depression 1 items
digital innovation 1 items
direct purchases 1 items
dynamic factor models 1 items
economic downturn 1 items
economic history 1 items
economic outlook 1 items
economy 1 items
effective fed funds rate 1 items
emergency budget 1 items
emerging market equities 1 items
endogenous regime switching 1 items
entrusted loans 1 items
euro-denominated money market funds 1 items
even-keel 1 items
exchange mechanism 1 items
exchange rate stabilization 1 items
expectations 1 items
experimental economics 1 items
facilities 1 items
factor-augmented VARs 1 items
federal funds market 1 items
federal reserve system 1 items
financial crises 1 items
financial markets 1 items
fire sale 1 items
fiscal multipliers 1 items
fiscal shocks 1 items
fixed exchange rates 1 items
flight-to-quality 1 items
forecasts 1 items
foreign institutions 1 items
frequency-dependence 1 items
fx 1 items
global asset prices 1 items
global games 1 items
global risk aversion 1 items
global systemically important banks (GSIBs) 1 items
gold 1 items
government debt 1 items
growth 1 items
growth expectations 1 items
growth rates 1 items
growth volatility 1 items
heavy GDP 1 items
heavy and light sectors 1 items
heavy loans 1 items
heavy versus light sectors 1 items
high-frequency identification 1 items
hoarding 1 items
household debt 1 items
illiquidity 1 items
imperfect information 1 items
import prices 1 items
impossibility theorem 1 items
inattention 1 items
incentive compatibility 1 items
incomplete credit markets 1 items
industrial supplies 1 items
industrialization 1 items
inflation dynamics 1 items
inflation expectation 1 items
inflation target 1 items
information choice 1 items
infrastructure investment 1 items
insolvency 1 items
institutional asymmetry 1 items
interest rate dispersion 1 items
interest rate parity condition 1 items
intermediation 1 items
international capital flows 1 items
international monetary policy 1 items
international role 1 items
invasion of Ukraine 1 items
inventories 1 items
investment 1 items
labor force 1 items
labor share 1 items
labor supply 1 items
land prices 1 items
large banks 1 items
large-scale asset purchases 1 items
lending frictions 1 items
lending standards 1 items
leverage rule 1 items
liquidity buffer 1 items
liquidity coverage ratio 1 items
liquidity preference 1 items
liquidity provision 1 items
liquidity shocks 1 items
local governments 1 items
long-term versus short-term loans 1 items
low interest rates 1 items
macroeconomic forecasts 1 items
macroeconomic policy 1 items
managed float 1 items
market expectations 1 items
market function purchases 1 items
market functioning 1 items
market liquidity 1 items
market structure 1 items
marketized tools 1 items
mechanism design 1 items
minutes 1 items
model combination 1 items
model uncertainty 1 items
monetary non-neutrality 1 items
monetary policy framework 1 items
monetary policy framework: pre-crisis 1 items
monetary policy standard 1 items
monetary stimulus 1 items
monetary unions 1 items
money market funds 1 items
money market funds (MMFs) 1 items
money market mutual funds (MMF) 1 items
money markets 1 items
mortgage-backed securities 1 items
mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market 1 items
multiple steady states 1 items
negative natural rate 1 items
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