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Jel Classification:E43 

Working Paper
Ties That Bind: Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest for Small Open Economies

This paper estimates the natural rate of interest for six small open economies (Australia, Canada, South Korea, Sweden, Switzerland and the U.K.) with a structural New Keynesian model using Bayesian techniques. Our empirical analysis establishes the following four main findings: First, we show that the open economy framework provides a better fit of the data than its closed economy counterpart for the six countries we investigate. Second, we also show that, in all six countries, a Taylor (1993)-type monetary policy rule that tracks the Wicksellian short-term natural rate fits the data better ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 359

Working Paper
Monetary Policy, Housing Rents and Inflation Dynamics

International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1248

Working Paper
Exchange rates and monetary policy

In this paper we confront the data with the financial-market folk wisdom that monetary policy is one of the key drivers of nominal exchange rates. Focusing on measures of conventional and unconventional monetary policy, we find that monetary policy surprises and changes in expectations about future monetary policy can explain a sizable fraction of the variation in exchange rate changes for certain currency pairs. However, our results show that expected excess returns account for most of this variation. We also find that the importance unconventional monetary policy plays for explaining ...
Working Papers , Paper 15-16

Journal Article
The Global Pandemic and Run on Shadow Banks

In March, the global coronavirus pandemic led to a period of financial stress in which credit conditions tightened at an unprecedented pace. Elements of this stress period can be explained as a classic run on “shadow banks”—nonbank financial institutions that fund long-term assets with short-term debt. Although timely Federal Reserve interventions restored some calm to markets, shadow banks remain vulnerable to future runs because they lack the safeguards available to regulated depository institutions.
Economic Bulletin , Issue May 11, 2020 , Pages 5

Discussion Paper
Assessing monetary accommodation: a simple empirical model of monetary policy and its implications for unemployment and inflation

This note suggests that household wealth growth and a long-forward interest rate can be used to construct a simple and convenient reference standard for assessing the current stance of monetary policy. It shows that the difference between the federal funds rate and this reference interest rate is a powerful predictor of the unemployment rate and inflation, producing real-time forecasts that are competitive with consensus-based forecasts from surveys of forecasting professionals. Moreover, one can understand past FOMC policy actions as efforts to adjust the stance of policy, so measured, in ...
Staff Papers , Issue Dec

Working Paper
A Model of the Federal Funds Market: Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow

The landscape of the federal funds market changed drastically in the wake of the Great Recession as large-scale asset purchase programs left depository institutions awash with reserves, and new regulations made it more costly for these institutions to lend. As traditional levers for implementing monetary policy became less effective, the Federal Reserve introduced new tools to implement the target range for the federal funds rate, changing this landscape even more. In this paper, we develop a model that is capable of reproducing the main features of the federal funds market, as observed ...
Working Papers , Paper 18-10

Working Paper
Liquidity Traps and Monetary Policy: Managing a Credit Crunch

We study a model with heterogeneous producers that face collateral and cash in advance constraints. These two frictions give rise to a non-trivial financial market in a monetary economy. A tightening of the collateral constraint results in a credit-crunch generated recession. The model can suitable be used to study the effects on the main macroeconomic variables - and on welfare of each individual - of alternative monetary - and fiscal - policies following the credit crunch. The model reproduces several features of the recent financial crisis, like the persistent negative real interest rates, ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2014-14

Working Paper
On Interest Rate Policy and Asset Bubbles

In a provocative paper, Gal (2014) showed that a policymaker who raises interest rates to rein in a potential bubble will only make a bubble bigger if one exists. This poses a challenge to advocates of lean-against-the-wind policies that call for raising interest rates to mitigate potential bubbles. In this paper, we argue there are situations in which the lean-against-the wind view is justified. First, we argue Gal?s framework abstracts from the possibility that a policymaker who raises rates will crowd out resources that would have otherwise been spent on the bubble. Once we modify Gal?s ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2017-16

Journal Article
Revamping the Kansas City Financial Stress Index Using the Treasury Repo Rate

The Kansas City Financial Stress Index (KCFSI) uses the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) to measure money market borrowing conditions. But regulatory changes in the United Kingdom will eliminate LIBOR by 2021. We construct a revised financial stress index with a variable that measures the cost of borrowing collateralized by Treasury securities (the Treasury repo rate) instead of LIBOR. {{p}} This revised measure of the KCFSI is highly correlated with the current KCFSI, suggesting the Treasury repo rate can replace LIBOR.
Macro Bulletin

Working Paper
The Liquidity Effects of Official Bond Market Intervention

To "ensure depth and liquidity," the European Central Bank in 2010 and 2011 repeatedly intervened in sovereign debt markets through its Securities Markets Programme. These purchases provide a unique natural experiment for testing the effects of large-scale asset purchases on risk premia arising from liquidity concerns. To explore how official intervention influences liquidity premia, we develop a search-based asset-pricing model. Consistent with our model's predictions, we find statistically and economically significant stock and flow effects on sovereign bonds' liquidity premia in ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1138

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Christensen, Jens H. E. 15 items

Rudebusch, Glenn D. 8 items

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Anbil, Sriya 4 items

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