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Working Paper
Currency Manipulation
Hassan, Tarek A.; Mertens, Thomas M.; Zhang, Tony (2016-12-01)
We propose a novel, risk-based transmission mechanism for the effects of currency manipulation: policies that systematically induce a country?s currency to appreciate in bad times, lower its risk premium in international markets and, as a result, lower the country?s risk-free interest rate and increase domestic capital accumulation and wages. Currency manipulations by large countries also have external effects on foreign interest rates and capital accumulation. Applying this logic to policies that lower the variance of the bilateral exchange rate relative to some target country (?currency ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2016-15

Working Paper
International Dollar Flows
Banegas, Ayelen; Judson, Ruth; Sims, Charles; Stebunovs, Viktors (2015-09-09)
Using confidential Federal Reserve data, we study the factors driving U.S. banknote flows between the United States and other countries. These flows are a significant component of capital flows in emerging market economies, where physical U.S. currency functions as a safe asset and precautionary demand for U.S. banknotes is a form of flight to quality. Prior to the global financial crisis, country-specific factors, including local economic uncertainty, largely explain the volume and heterogeneity of the flows. Since the crisis, global factors, particularly, global economic uncertainty, ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1144

Journal Article
Revamping the Kansas City Financial Stress Index Using the Treasury Repo Rate
Doh, Taeyoung; Cook, Thomas R. (2018-10-24)
The Kansas City Financial Stress Index (KCFSI) uses the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) to measure money market borrowing conditions. But regulatory changes in the United Kingdom will eliminate LIBOR by 2021. We construct a revised financial stress index with a variable that measures the cost of borrowing collateralized by Treasury securities (the Treasury repo rate) instead of LIBOR. {{p}} This revised measure of the KCFSI is highly correlated with the current KCFSI, suggesting the Treasury repo rate can replace LIBOR.
Macro Bulletin

Working Paper
Do Monetary Policy Announcements Shift Household Expectations?
Lewis, Daniel J.; Makridis, Christos; Mertens, Karel
We use a decade of daily survey data from Gallup to study how monetary policy influences households' beliefs about economic conditions. We first document that public confidence in the state of the economy reacts instantaneously to certain types of macroeconomic news. Next, we show that surprises to the Federal Funds target rate are among the news that have statistically significant and instantaneous effects on economic confidence. Specifically, we find that a surprise increase in the target rate robustly leads to an immediate decline in household confidence, at odds with previous findings ...
Working Papers , Paper 1906

Working Paper
Price dispersion and inflation: new facts and theoretical implications
Sheremirov, Viacheslav (2015-07-01)
From a macroeconomic perspective, price rigidity is often perceived to be an important source of price dispersion, with significant implications for the dynamic properties of aggregate variables, welfare calculations, and the design of optimal policy. For instance, in standard New Keynesian models, the key cost of business cycles stems from the price dispersion resulting from firms' inability to adjust prices instantaneously. However, different macroeconomic models make conflicting predictions about the level of price dispersion, as well as about its dynamic properties and sensitivity to ...
Working Papers , Paper 15-10

Working Paper
Bubbly Recessions
Hanson, Andrew; Phan, Toan; Biswas, Siddhartha (2018-02-22)
We develop a tractable rational bubbles model with financial frictions, downward nominal wage rigidity, and the zero lower bound. The interaction of financial frictions and nominal rigidities leads to a "bubbly pecuniary externality," where competitive speculation in risky bubbly assets can result in excessive investment booms that precede inefficient busts. The collapse of a large bubble can push the economy into a "secular stagnation" equilibrium, where the zero lower bound and the nominal wage rigidity constraint bind, leading to a persistent and inefficient recession. We evaluate ...
Working Paper , Paper 18-5

Working Paper
Forecasting China's Economic Growth and Inflation
Higgins, Patrick C.; Zha, Tao; Zhong, Karen (2016-07-01)
Although macroeconomic forecasting forms an integral part of the policymaking process, there has been a serious lack of rigorous and systematic research in the evaluation of out-of-sample model-based forecasts of China's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and consumer price index inflation. This paper fills this research gap by providing a replicable forecasting model that beats a host of other competing models when measured by root mean square errors, especially over long-run forecast horizons. The model is shown to be capable of predicting turning points and usable for policy analysis ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2016-7

Working Paper
A Tractable Model of Monetary Exchange with Ex-Post Heterogeneity
Wong, Russell; Rocheteau, Guillaume; Weill, Pierre-Olivier (2017-04-20)
We construct a continuous-time, New-Monetarist economy with general preferences that displays an endogenous, non-degenerate distribution of money holdings. Properties of equilibria are obtained analytically and equilibria are solved in closed form in a variety of cases. We study policy as incentive-compatible transfers financed with money creation. Lump-sum transfers are welfare-enhancing when labor productivity is low, but regressive transfers achieve higher welfare when labor productivity is high. We introduce illiquid government bonds and draw implications for the existence of ...
Working Paper , Paper 17-6

Journal Article
An Attractive Monetary Model with Surprising Implications for Optima: Two Examples
Wallace, Neil (2014)
Ex ante optima are described for two examples of a monetary model with random meetings, some perfectly monitored people, and some nonmonitored people. One example describes optimal inflation, the other optimal seasonal policy. Although the numerical examples are arbitrary in most respects, the results are consistent with three general conclusions: if the model is known, then intervention is desirable; even the qualitative aspects of optimal intervention are not obvious; and optimal intervention depends on the details of the model. The results are therefore reminiscent of the conclusions of ...
Quarterly Review , Issue March , Pages 1-16

Working Paper
How the New Fed Municipal Bond Facility Capped Muni-Treasury Yield Spreads in the COVID-19 Recession
Bordo, Michael D.; Duca, John V. (2021-01-15)
For over two centuries, the municipal bond market has been a source of systemic risk, which returned early in the COVID-19 downturn when borrowing from securities markets became costly for many private and public entities, and some found it difficult to borrow at all. Indeed, just before the Fed announced its unprecedented intervention into the municipal (muni) bond market, spreads of muni over Treasury yields rose in line with the unemployment rate and appeared headed to levels not seen since the Great Depression, when real municipal gross investment plunged 35 percent below 1929 levels. To ...
Working Papers , Paper 2101

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