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Journal Article
Policymakers Have Options for Additional Accommodation: Forward Guidance and Yield Curve Control
Bundick, Brent; Smith, Andrew Lee (2020-07-15)
With the federal funds rate near zero, policymakers are evaluating options for providing additional monetary policy accommodation, including a tool known as yield curve control. We find that despite low nominal Treasury yields, some scope for additional accommodation remains should policymakers deem it appropriate. However, we argue that forward guidance about future interest rates could deliver much, though not all, of the accommodation of yield curve control.
Economic Bulletin

Working Paper
Fiscal Multipliers and Financial Crises
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2021-10-20)
I study the effects of the US fiscal policy response to the Great Recession, accounting both for standard tools and financial sector interventions. A nonlinear model calibrated to the US allows me to study the state-dependent effects of different fiscal policies. I combine the model with data on the fiscal policy response to find that the fall in consumption would have been almost 50% larger in the absence of that response for a cumulative loss of 7.18%. Transfers and bank recapitalizations yielded the largest fiscal multipliers through new transmission channels that arise from linkages ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-023

Discussion Paper
Exploring the TIPS‑Treasury Valuation Puzzle
Roussellet, Guillaume (2024-07-01)
Since the late 1990s, the U.S. Treasury has issued debt in two main forms: nominal bonds, which provide fixed-cash scheduled payments, and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities—or TIPS—which provide the holder with inflation-protected payments that rise with U.S. inflation. At the heart of their relative valuation lie market participants’ expectations of future inflation, an object of interest for academics, policymakers, and investors alike. After briefly reviewing the theoretical and empirical links between TIPS and Treasury yields, this post, based on a recent research paper, ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20240701

Journal Article
The development of the Government Securities Clearing Corporation
Ingber, Jeffrey F. (2017-23-02)
Despite its vast size, liquidity, and global importance, the U.S. government securities market was one of the last major securities markets to benefit from centralized clearance and settlement services. The development of these services began in 1986 with the establishment of the Government Securities Clearing Corporation (GSCC)?now part of the Fixed Income Clearing Corporation, a unit of the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation. This article traces the history of the GSCC. The author describes the state of the government securities market in the 1980s and the events that led to GSCC?s ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue 23-2 , Pages 33-50

Journal Article
Evaluating Quantitative Easing: The Importance of Accounting for Forward Guidance
Smith, Andrew Lee; Bundick, Brent (2022-06-30)
During the COVID-19 pandemic crisis, policymakers used large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) along with forward guidance about the future path of the federal funds rate to help stabilize financial markets. However, policymakers and economists have yet to reach a consensus on the efficacy of LSAPs in providing accommodation and improving macroeconomic outcomes. Because announced changes in LSAPs often coincide with changes in forward guidance, the market responses to these two tools can be difficult to disentangle and each tool’s efficacy challenging to evaluate.Brent Bundick and A. Lee Smith ...
Economic Review , Volume 107 , Issue no.3 , Pages 16

Working Paper
A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars
Zaman, Saeed (2024-05-31)
This paper develops a semi-structural model to jointly estimate “stars” — long-run levels of output (its growth rate), the unemployment rate, the real interest rate, productivity growth, price inflation, and wage inflation. It features links between survey expectations and stars, time-variation in macroeconomic relationships, and stochastic volatility. Survey data help discipline stars’ estimates and have been crucial in estimating a high-dimensional model since the pandemic. The model has desirable real-time properties, competitive forecasting performance, and superior fit to the ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-23R2

Report
The 2013 Survey of Consumer Payment Choice: Technical Appendix
Angrisani, Marco; Foster, Kevin; Hitczenko, Marcin (2015-07-01)
This report serves as the technical appendix to the 2013 Survey of Consumer Payment Choice. The Survey of Consumer Payment Choice (SCPC) is an annual study, conducted since 2008 through a partnership between the Consumer Payments Research Center (CPRC) at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and the RAND Corporation, designed primarily to collect data on attitudes to and use of various payment instruments by consumers over the age of 18 in the United States. The main report, which introduces the survey and discusses the principal economic results, can be found here. This data report details the ...
Consumer Payments Research Data Reports , Paper 2015-05

Working Paper
Estimating (Markov-Switching) VAR Models without Gibbs Sampling: A Sequential Monte Carlo Approach
Herbst, Edward P.; Bognanni, Mark (2014-11-12)
Vector autoregressions with Markov-switching parameters (MS-VARs) offer dramatically better data fit than their constant-parameter predecessors. However, computational complications, as well as negative results about the importance of switching in parameters other than shock variances, have caused MS-VARs to see only sparse usage. For our first contribution, we document the effectiveness of Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms at estimating MSVAR posteriors. Relative to multi-step, model-specific MCMC routines, SMC has the advantages of being simpler to implement, readily parallelizable, ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1427

Working Paper
Current Federal Reserve Policy Under the Lens of Economic History: A Review Essay
Williamson, Stephen D. (2015-07-09)
This review essay is intended as a critical review of Humpage (2015), and it expands on the issues raised in that volume. Federal Reserve Policy during the financial crisis, and in its aftermath are addressed, along with the relationship to historical experience in the U.S. and elsewhere in the world.
Working Papers , Paper 2015-15

Working Paper
A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars
Zaman, Saeed (2022-08-15)
We develop a flexible semi-structural time-series model to estimate jointly several macroeconomic "stars" -- i.e., unobserved long-run equilibrium levels of output (and growth rate of output), the unemployment rate, the real rate of interest, productivity growth, price inflation, and wage inflation. The ingredients of the model are in part motivated by economic theory and in part by the empirical features necessitated by the changing economic environment. Following the recent literature on inflation and interest rate modeling, we explicitly model the links between long-run survey expectations ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-23R

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