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Working Paper
Independent within—not of—Government: The Emergence of the Federal Reserve as a Modern Central Bank
Independence is the hallmark of modern central banks, but independence is a mutable and fragile concept, because the governments to whom central banks are ultimately responsible can have objectives that take precedence over price stability. This paper traces the Federal Reserve?s emergence as a modern central bank beginning with its abandonment of monetary policy for debt-management operations during the Second World War and through the controversies that led to the Treasury-Federal Reserve accord in 1951. The accord, however, did not end the Federal Reserve?s search for independence. After the accord, the Federal Reserve?s view of responsibilities "within" government led it to policies?even keel and foreign exchange operations?that complicated the System?s ability to conduct monetary policy.
AUTHORS: Humpage, Owen F.
DATE: 2014-03-27
Working Paper
Estimating (Markov-Switching) VAR Models without Gibbs Sampling: A Sequential Monte Carlo Approach
Vector autoregressions with Markov-switching parameters (MS-VARs) offer dramatically better data fit than their constant-parameter predecessors. However, computational complications, as well as negative results about the importance of switching in parameters other than shock variances, have caused MS-VARs to see only sparse usage. For our first contribution, we document the effectiveness of Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms at estimating MSVAR posteriors. Relative to multi-step, model-specific MCMC routines, SMC has the advantages of being simpler to implement, readily parallelizable, and unconstrained by reliance on convenient relationships between prior and likelihood. For our second contribution, we exploit SMC?s flexibility to demonstrate that the use of priors with superior data fit alters inference about the presence of time variation in macroeconomic dynamics. Using the same data as Sims, Waggoner, and Zha (2008, we provide evidence of recurrent episodes characterized by a flat Phillips Curve.
AUTHORS: Herbst, Edward; Bognanni, Mark
DATE: 2014-11-12
Working Paper
A Class of Time-Varying Parameter Structural VARs for Inference under Exact or Set Identification
This paper develops a new class of structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) with time-varying parameters, which I call a drifting SVAR (DSVAR). The DSVAR is the first structural time-varying parameter model to allow for internally consistent probabilistic inference under exact?or set?identification, nesting the widely used SVAR framework as a special case. I prove that the DSVAR implies a reduced-form representation, from which structural inference can proceed similarly to the widely used two-step approach for SVARs: beginning with estimation of a reduced form and then choosing among observationally equivalent candidate structural parameters via the imposition of identifying restrictions. In a special case, the implied reduced form is a tractable known model for which I provide the first algorithm for Bayesian estimation of all free parameters. I demonstrate the framework in the context of Baumeister and Peersman?s (2013b) work on time variation in the elasticity of oil demand.
AUTHORS: Bognanni, Mark
DATE: 2018-09-11
Report
The 2015 and 2016 diaries of consumer payment choice: technical appendix
This document serves as the technical appendix to the 2015 and 2016 editions of the Diary of Consumer Payment Choice (DCPC) administered by the Center for Economic and Social Research. The DCPC is a study designed primarily to collect data on financial transactions over a three-day period by U.S. consumers ages 18 and older. In this data report, we detail the technical aspects of the survey design, implementation, and analysis.
AUTHORS: Angrisani, Marco; Foster, Kevin; Hitczenko, Marcin
DATE: 2018-03-01
Report
The 2011 and 2012 Surveys of Consumer Payment Choice: technical appendix
This document serves as the technical appendix to the 2011 and 2012 Surveys of Consumer Payment Choice. The Survey of Consumer Payment Choice (SCPC) is an annual study designed primarily to study the evolving attitudes to and use of various payment instruments by consumers over the age of 18 in the United States. The main report, which introduces the survey and discusses the principal economic results, can be found on http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/cprc/SCPC. In this data report, we detail the technical aspects of the survey design, implementation, and analysis.
AUTHORS: Foster, Kevin; Angrisani, Marco; Hitczenko, Marcin
DATE: 2014-10-01
Report
The 2014 survey of consumer payment choice: technical appendix
This document serves as the technical appendix to the 2014 Survey of Consumer Payment Choice administered by the RAND Corporation. The Survey of Consumer Payment Choice (SCPC) is an annual study designed primarily to collect data on attitudes to and use of various payment instruments by consumers over the age of 18 in the United States. The main report, which introduces the survey and discusses the principal economic results, can be found at http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/cprc/SCPC. In this data report, we detail the technical aspects of the survey design, implementation, and analysis.
AUTHORS: Angrisani, Marco; Foster, Kevin; Hitczenko, Marcin
DATE: 2016-07-01
Report
The 2012 diary of consumer payment choice: technical appendix
This document serves as the technical appendix to the 2012 Diary of Consumer Payment Choice administered by the RAND Corporation. The Diary of Consumer Payment Choice (DCPC) is a study designed primarily to collect data on financial transactions over a three-day period by consumers over the age of 18 in the United States. In this data report, we detail the technical aspects of the survey design, implementation, and analysis.
AUTHORS: Hitczenko, Marcin; Angrisani, Marco; Foster, Kevin
DATE: 2017-09-01
Report
The 2015 Survey of Consumer Payment Choice: technical appendix
This document serves as the technical appendix to the 2015 Survey of Consumer Payment Choice administered by the Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research (CESR). The Survey of Consumer Payment Choice (SCPC) is an annual study designed primarily to collect data on attitudes to and use of various payment instruments by consumers over the age of 18 in the United States. The main report, which introduces the survey and discusses the principal economic results, can be found at http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/cprc/SCPC. In this data report, we detail the technical aspects of the survey design, implementation, and analysis.
AUTHORS: Angrisani, Marco; Foster, Kevin; Hitczenko, Marcin
DATE: 2017-07-01
Report
The 2013 Survey of Consumer Payment Choice: technical appendix
This report serves as the technical appendix to the 2013 Survey of Consumer Payment Choice. The Survey of Consumer Payment Choice (SCPC) is an annual study, conducted since 2008 through a partnership between the Consumer Payments Research Center (CPRC) at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and the RAND Corporation, designed primarily to collect data on attitudes to and use of various payment instruments by consumers over the age of 18 in the United States. This data report details the technical aspects of the survey design, implementation, and analysis.
AUTHORS: Foster, Kevin; Angrisani, Marco; Hitczenko, Marcin
DATE: 2015-07-01
Report
The 2010 Survey of Consumer Payment Choice: technical appendix
This document serves as the technical appendix to the 2010 Survey of Consumer Payment Choice. The Survey of Consumer Payment Choice (SCPC) is an annual study designed primarily to study the evolving attitudes to and use of various payment instruments by consumers over the age of 18 in the United States. The main report, which introduces the survey and discusses the principal economic results, can be found on http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/cprc/SCPC. In this data report, we detail the technical aspects of the survey design, implementation, and analysis.
AUTHORS: Foster, Kevin; Hitczenko, Marcin; Angrisani, Marco
DATE: 2013-11-18
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