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Working Paper
Optimal Inflation Target with Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps
Coyle, Philip; Nakata, Taisuke
(2019-05-17)
In expectations-driven liquidity traps, a higher inflation target is associated with lower inflation and consumption. As a result, introducing the possibility of expectations-driven liquidity traps to an otherwise standard model lowers the optimal inflation target. Using a calibrated New Keynesian model with an effective lower bound (ELB) constraint on nominal interest rates, we find that even a very small probability of falling into an expectations-driven liquidity trap lowers the optimal inflation target nontrivially. Our analysis provides a reason to be cautious about the argument that ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2019-036
Report
On the scale of financial intermediaries
Shin, Hyun Song; Adrian, Tobias; Boyarchenko, Nina
(2015-10-01)
This paper studies the economic scale of financial institutions. We show that banks and security broker-dealers actively smooth book equity by adjusting payouts. The smoothing of book equity is associated with procyclical book leverage and procyclical net payouts. In contrast, market leverage largely reflects movements in valuation levels as measured by book-to-market ratios. The 2008 crisis caused a structural break, after which the growth rates of the banking and dealer sectors have been subdued relative to pre-crisis levels. We draw conclusions for theories of financial intermediation and ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 743
Working Paper
The Empirical Implications of the Interest-Rate Lower Bound
Gust, Christopher J.; Lopez-Salido, J. David; Smith, Matthew E.; Herbst, Edward
(2012)
Using Bayesian methods, we estimate a nonlinear DSGE model in which the interest-rate lower bound is occasionally binding. We quantify the size and nature of disturbances that pushed the U.S. economy to the lower bound in late 2008 as well as the contribution of the lower bound constraint to the resulting economic slump. We find that the interest-rate lower bound was a significant constraint on monetary policy that exacerbated the recession and inhibited the recovery, as our mean estimates imply that the zero lower bound (ZLB) accounted for about 30 percent of the sharp contraction in U.S. ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2012-83
Working Paper
Relationship Networks in Banking Around a Sovereign Default and Currency Crisis
Moscoso Boedo, Herman J.; Pia Olivero, Maria; Sangiacomo, Maximo; D'Erasmo, Pablo
(2019-10-29)
We study how banks? exposure to a sovereign crisis gets transmitted onto the corporate sector. To do so we use data on the universe of banks and ?rms in Argentina during the crisis of 2001. We build a model characterized by matching frictions in which ?rms establish (long-term) relationships with banks that are subject to balance sheet disruptions. Credit relationships with banks more exposed to the crisis su?er the most. However, this relationship-level e?ect overstates the true cost of the crisis since profitable ?rms (e.g., exporters after a devaluation) might ?nd it optimal to switch ...
Working Papers
, Paper 19-43
Working Paper
Interpreting Shocks to the Relative Price of Investment with a Two-Sector Model
Guerrieri, Luca; Henderson, Dale W.; Kim, Jinill
(2016-02-08)
Consumption and investment comove over the business cycle in response to shocks that permanently move the price of investment. The interpretation of these shocks has relied on standard one-sector models or on models with two or more sectors that can be aggregated. However, the same interpretation continues to go through in models that cannot be aggregated into a standard one-sector model. Furthermore, such a two-sector model with distinct factor input shares across production sectors and commingling of sectoral outputs in the assembly of final consumption and investment goods, in line with ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2016-7
Working Paper
Financial Business Cycles
Iacoviello, Matteo
(2014-08-28)
Using Bayesian methods, I estimate a DSGE model where a recession is initiated by losses suffered by banks and exacerbated by their inability to extend credit to the real sector. The event triggering the recession has the workings of a redistribution shock: a small sector of the economy -- borrowers who use their home as collateral -- defaults on their loans. When banks hold little equity in excess of regulatory requirements, the losses require them to react immediately, either by recapitalizing or by deleveraging. By deleveraging, banks transform the initial shock into a credit crunch, and, ...
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 1116
Report
The Cyclicality of the Opportunity Cost of Employment
Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel; Karabarbounis, Loukas
(2015-08-26)
The flow opportunity cost of moving from unemployment to employment consists of foregone public benefits and the foregone value of non-working time in units of consumption. We construct a time series of the opportunity cost of employment using detailed microdata and administrative or national accounts data to estimate benefit levels, eligibility and take-up of benefits, consumption by labor force status, hours per worker, taxes, and preference parameters. Our estimated opportunity cost is procyclical and volatile over the business cycle. The estimated cyclicality implies far less unemployment ...
Staff Report
, Paper 514
Working Paper
How Should Unemployment Insurance Vary over the Business Cycle?
See, Kurt; Birinci, Serdar
(2020-02-18)
We study optimal unemployment insurance (UI) over the business cycle using a heterogeneous agent job search model with aggregate risk and incomplete markets. We validate the model-implied micro and macro labor market elasticities to changes in UI generosity against existing estimates, and provide an explanation for divergent empirical findings. We show that generating the observed demographic differences between UI recipients and non-recipients is critical in determining the magnitudes of these elasticities. We find that the optimal policy features countercyclical replacement rates with ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2019-022
Journal Article
Credit Cycles and Business Cycles
Azariadis, Costas
(2018)
Unsecured firm credit moves procyclically in the United States and tends to lead gross domestic product, while secured firm credit is acyclical. Shocks to unsecured firm credit explain a far larger fraction of output fluctuations than shocks to secured credit. This article surveys a tractable dynamic general equilibrium model in which constraints on unsecured firm credit preclude an efficient capital allocation among heterogeneous firms. Unsecured credit rests on the value that borrowers attach to a good credit reputation, which is a forward-looking variable. Self-fulfilling beliefs over ...
Review
, Volume 100
, Issue 1
Working Paper
Precautionary On-the-Job Search over the Business Cycle
Ahn, Hie Joo; Shao, Ling
(2017-02-24)
This paper provides new evidence for cyclicality in the job-search effort of employed workers, on-the-job search (OJS) intensity, in the United States using American Time Use Survey and various cyclical indicators. We find that OJS intensity is countercyclical along both the extensive and intensive margins, with the countercyclicality of extensive margin stronger than the other. An increase in the layoffs rate and the deterioration in expectations about future personal financial situation are the primary factors that raise OJS intensity. Our findings suggest that the precautionary motive in ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2017-025
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E71 1 items
F00 1 items
F11 1 items
F13 1 items
F14 1 items
F15 1 items
F17 1 items
F21 1 items
F23 1 items
F3 1 items
F30 1 items
F36 1 items
F43 1 items
F45 1 items
F47 1 items
F66 1 items
G13 1 items
G14 1 items
G30 1 items
G51 1 items
H1 1 items
H12 1 items
H22 1 items
H25 1 items
H30 1 items
H32 1 items
H50 1 items
H57 1 items
H71 1 items
H72 1 items
I10 1 items
I12 1 items
I30 1 items
J00 1 items
J10 1 items
J26 1 items
J46 1 items
L1 1 items
L10 1 items
L13 1 items
L60 1 items
M21 1 items
N26 1 items
N32 1 items
O13 1 items
O16 1 items
O23 1 items
O3 1 items
O31 1 items
O50 1 items
O51 1 items
O53 1 items
R1 1 items
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FILTER BY Keywords
Business cycles 64 items
monetary policy 47 items
Unemployment 25 items
COVID-19 19 items
Zero lower bound 18 items
forward guidance 16 items
Uncertainty 13 items
Business cycle 12 items
Financial frictions 12 items
Stochastic Volatility 12 items
Great Recession 11 items
Productivity 11 items
Effective Lower Bound 11 items
Financial Crisis 10 items
Firm Dynamics 10 items
Recession 8 items
pandemic 8 items
Bayesian estimation 8 items
Fiscal policy 8 items
DSGE models 7 items
Inflation Targeting 7 items
Unemployment Insurance 7 items
Job Search 6 items
Inflation 6 items
Macroprudential policy 6 items
Tail Risk 6 items
heterogeneous agents 6 items
Inventories 5 items
Bayesian methods 5 items
Consumption 5 items
Great Moderation 5 items
Leverage 5 items
Uncertainty shocks 5 items
asset pricing 5 items
balance sheet policies 5 items
coronavirus 5 items
financial intermediation 5 items
general equilibrium 5 items
recessions 5 items
structural changes 5 items
International Business Cycles 5 items
Employment 4 items
Global Financial Crisis 2007–09 4 items
Phillips curve 4 items
Vacancies 4 items
local projections 4 items
Banks 4 items
Credit constraints 4 items
Euro area 4 items
Financial crises 4 items
Financial stability 4 items
News Shocks 4 items
Optimal policy 4 items
collateral constraints 4 items
debt 4 items
house prices 4 items
identification 4 items
government spending 4 items
incomplete markets 4 items
Bayesian learning 3 items
Credit 3 items
Disinflation 3 items
Dynamic Factor Models 3 items
Dynamic factor model 3 items
Financial shocks 3 items
Forecasting 3 items
Interest rates 3 items
Labor market frictions 3 items
Markov-switching 3 items
Output gap 3 items
Risky Steady State 3 items
Search and Matching 3 items
Structural VAR 3 items
Taylor rule 3 items
Time-varying volatility 3 items
aggregate fluctuations 3 items
asymmetry 3 items
liquidity premium 3 items
liquidity trap 3 items
private information 3 items
sudden stops 3 items
Credit crunch 3 items
Labor Force Participation 3 items
bank lending 3 items
belief-driven business cycles 3 items
inflation expectations 3 items
input-output linkages 3 items
Adverse selection 2 items
Argentina 2 items
Bailouts 2 items
Banking panic 2 items
Bayesian inference 2 items
Commitment 2 items
Credibility 2 items
DSGE 2 items
DSGE model 2 items
Deflationary Bias 2 items
Duration dependence 2 items
Economic Activity 2 items
Economic Uncertainty 2 items
Endogeneity 2 items
Entry 2 items
Exit 2 items
Expectations 2 items
Extended Kalman filter 2 items
Firm size distribution 2 items
Fiscal Policy and Household Behavior 2 items
Fiscal devaluation 2 items
Globalization 2 items
Hiring 2 items
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Housing 2 items
Income inequality 2 items
Inflation target 2 items
Investment 2 items
Kalman filter 2 items
Labor Market Search 2 items
Labor income risk 2 items
Labor market 2 items
Labor wedge 2 items
Macroeconomic volatility 2 items
Markov Switching 2 items
Minimum Wage 2 items
NAFTA 2 items
Nonlinear 2 items
Optimal monetary policy 2 items
Recovery 2 items
Risk 2 items
Skewness 2 items
Slow recoveries 2 items
Sovereign Default 2 items
State space model 2 items
Structural breaks 2 items
Synchronization 2 items
Unobserved heterogeneity 2 items
bank loans 2 items
bargaining shocks 2 items
business cycle synchronization 2 items
business cycles. 2 items
business dynamism 2 items
business expectations 2 items
cluster analysis 2 items
comovements 2 items
costly external finance 2 items
currency premium 2 items
current account 2 items
cycles 2 items
debt management policy 2 items
demand shock 2 items
depression 2 items
elasticity puzzle 2 items
endogenous TFP 2 items
entrepreneurship 2 items
expectations stabilization 2 items
fluctuations 2 items
generalized impulse response functions 2 items
growth model 2 items
housing market 2 items
inflation measurement 2 items
labor share 2 items
leverage constraints 2 items
macro-finance 2 items
macroprudential policy. 2 items
markups 2 items
maturity structure 2 items
military spending 2 items
mitigation 2 items
multi-sector Calvo model 2 items
natural rate of unemployment 2 items
pandemics 2 items
policy 2 items
potential output 2 items
random coefficients 2 items
rational expectations 2 items
real estate 2 items
replacement hiring 2 items
risk premium 2 items
search frictions 2 items
signaling 2 items
small business 2 items
supply shock 2 items
survey expectations 2 items
time varying transition probabilities 2 items
time-varying threshold VAR 2 items
trade-comovement puzzle 2 items
tradeoffs 2 items
unemployment flows 2 items
yield curve 2 items
Bank Runs 2 items
Business Cycle Fluctuations 2 items
Financial Accelerator 2 items
Human Capital 2 items
Impulse Response Matching 2 items
1918 Flu Pandemic 1 items
1918 Spanish influenza 1 items
1918 influenza 1 items
2007-2009 recession 1 items
Abenomics 1 items
Accounting Decomposition 1 items
Adaptive algorithms 1 items
Aggregate economic theory 1 items
Aggregate financial economics 1 items
Aggregate matching efficiency 1 items
Aggregation 1 items
American Time Use Survey 1 items
Animal spirits 1 items
Asset price 1 items
Asset returns 1 items
Autoregressive 1 items
Balance sheet recession 1 items
Bank Profitability 1 items
Bank capital 1 items
Bank credit 1 items
Bank networks 1 items
Banking 1 items
Banking Crises 1 items
Banking Panics 1 items
Banking integration 1 items
Bankruptcy 1 items
Bayesian VAR 1 items
Bayesian VARs 1 items
Bayesian analysis 1 items
Beveridge curve 1 items
Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition 1 items
Bond Forward Guidance 1 items
Bond return predictability 1 items
Bond term premium 1 items
Borrowing constraints 1 items
Business Cycle Fluctuation 1 items
Business applications 1 items
Business cycle uncertainty 1 items
Business cycle volatility 1 items
Business dynamics 1 items
Business exit 1 items
Business formation 1 items
Businesses 1 items
C-means 1 items
CARES act 1 items
CES Production 1 items
Capital Reallocation 1 items
Capital Search 1 items
Capital controls 1 items
Central bank communication 1 items
Changes in cyclical volatilities 1 items
China 1 items
Coincident measures 1 items
Collateral 1 items
Commitment policies 1 items
Commodity Prices 1 items
Comovement 1 items
Competitive Search 1 items
Computation 1 items
Computational methods 1 items
Conditional Transfers 1 items
Conditional response 1 items
Consumer credit 1 items
Core inflation 1 items
Corporate Default 1 items
Correlated unobserved components 1 items
Cost of Business Cycles 1 items
Credible policy 1 items
Credit Constrains 1 items
Credit Lines 1 items
Credit Reallocation 1 items
Credit channel 1 items
Credit cycles 1 items
Credit frictions 1 items
Credit network 1 items
Credit policies 1 items
Credit relationships 1 items
Credit view 1 items
Credit-market sentiment 1 items
Cross-Sectional Skewness 1 items
Cross-country 1 items
Cross-country data 1 items
Current Economic Conditions 1 items
Curse of Dimensionality 1 items
Customer Capital 1 items
DSGE economy 1 items
Data rich environment 1 items
Debt constraints 1 items
Default 1 items
Default Risk 1 items
Deflation 1 items
Density forecasts 1 items
Deposit contract 1 items
Depressions 1 items
Devaluation 1 items
Development 1 items
Diamond-Mortenson-Pissarides model 1 items
Diffusion Index 1 items
Disaggregate consumer prices 1 items
Discount Factor Shocks 1 items
Discount factor heterogeneity 1 items
Discrete Choice 1 items
Discretion 1 items
Discretization 1 items
Distributional Effect of Monetary Policy 1 items
Durables 1 items
Duration analysis 1 items
Dynamic Heterogeneity 1 items
Dynamic spillovers 1 items
ELB 1 items
EM algorithm 1 items
Early Warning Indicators 1 items
Early warning 1 items
Earnings losses upon displacement 1 items
Earnings risk 1 items
Economic activity index 1 items
Economic indicators 1 items
Economic recovery 1 items
Economy 1 items
Employment protection 1 items
Employment stabilization policies 1 items
Endogenous Borrowing Constraints 1 items
Endogenous Collateral Constraints 1 items
Endogenous Dispersion of rmsTFP 1 items
Endogenous Technology 1 items
Endogenous Total Factor Productivity 1 items
Endogenous idiosyncratic risk 1 items
Endogenous uncertainty 1 items
Endogenous volatility 1 items
Entry and Exit 1 items
Epstein-Zin Preferences 1 items
Equity risk premium 1 items
Estimation 1 items
Eurozone 1 items
Exchange rates 1 items
Expectations-driven trap 1 items
Experimental economics 1 items
Exporter Behavior 1 items
Exports 1 items
External validation 1 items
FAVAR 1 items
Factor model 1 items
Federal Procurement 1 items
Federal Reserve balance sheets 1 items
Federal Reserve district 1 items
Financial Channel 1 items
Financial Development 1 items
Financial conditions 1 items
Financial constraints 1 items
Financial deregulation 1 items
Financial linkages 1 items
Financial recession 1 items
Firm entry 1 items
Firm heterogeneity 1 items
Firm networks 1 items
Firm size 1 items
Firm-level data 1 items
Firms 1 items
Firms dynamics 1 items
Firms entry 1 items
Fiscal 1 items
Fiscal Policy Transmission 1 items
Fiscal Union 1 items
Forecast Data 1 items
Forecasting error variance 1 items
Foreclosures 1 items
Fragmented Markets 1 items
Frinancial Frictions 1 items
GDP at risk 1 items
GDP growth 1 items
GDP growth target 1 items
Genuine duration dependence 1 items
Geopolitical Risk 1 items
Global VAR (GVAR) approach 1 items
Global and regional business cycles 1 items
Global financial crisis 1 items
Goods market frictions 1 items
Goods market search 1 items
Government transfers 1 items
Granular Residual 1 items
Granularity 1 items
Great Depression 1 items
Great Inflation 1 items
Greek Depression 1 items
Greenbook forecasts 1 items
Gross Domestic Product 1 items
HANK model 1 items
Hazard rates 1 items
Heterogeneous Firms 1 items
Heterogeneous Money Demand 1 items
Heterogeneous agent New Keynesian models 1 items
Heterogeneous-agent model 1 items
Hiring costs 1 items
Hiring subsidies 1 items
History-dependent policy 1 items
Household balance sheets 1 items
Household debt 1 items
Household income 1 items
Housing Finance 1 items
Housing bubbles 1 items
Identifcation 1 items
Immoderation 1 items
Indeterminacy 1 items
Industry heterogeneity 1 items
Inequality 1 items
Inflation bias 1 items
Inflation dynamics 1 items
Inflation stabilization 1 items
Information 1 items
Information Frictions 1 items
Information value 1 items
Informed trading 1 items
Input-output network 1 items
Intangible capital 1 items
Intangible investments 1 items
Interest rate rules 1 items
International Co-Movement 1 items
International Risk Sharing 1 items
Investment Wedge 1 items
Investment-specific productivity 1 items
Japan 1 items
Job Polarization 1 items
Job destruction 1 items
Job flows 1 items
Job loss 1 items
Job openings 1 items
Job separation 1 items
Korean economy 1 items
Labor Search 1 items
Labor Supply 1 items
Labor flows 1 items
Labor force 1 items
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