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Working Paper
The Nonlinear Effects of Uncertainty Shocks
Owyang, Michael T.; Jackson, Laura E.; Kliesen, Kevin L.
(2018-11-16)
We consider the effects of uncertainty shocks in a nonlinear VAR that allows uncertainty to have amplification effects. When uncertainty is relatively low, fluctuations in uncertainty have small, linear effects. In periods of high uncertainty, the effect of a further increase in uncertainty is magnified. We find that uncertainty shocks in this environment have a more pronounced effect on real economic variables. We also conduct counterfactual experiments to determine the channels through which uncertainty acts. Uncertainty propagates through both the household consumption channel and through ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2018-035
Journal Article
The Nonlinear Effects of Uncertainty Shocks
Owyang, Michael T.; Jackson, Laura E.; Kliesen, Kevin L.
(2019-10-26)
We consider the effects of uncertainty shocks in a nonlinear VAR that allows uncertainty to have amplification effects. When uncertainty is relatively low, fluctuations in uncertainty have small, linear effects. In periods of high uncertainty, the effect of a further increase in uncertainty is magnified. We find that uncertainty shocks in this environment have a more pronounced effect on real economic variables. We also conduct counterfactual experiments to determine the channels through which uncertainty acts. Uncertainty propagates through both the household consumption channel and through ...
Working Papers
, Volume 24
, Issue 4
Working Paper
Estimates of r* Consistent with a Supply-Side Structure and a Monetary Policy Rule for the U.S. Economy
Gonzalez-Astudillo, Manuel; Laforte, Jean-Philippe
(2020-10-08)
We estimate the natural rate of interest (r*) using a semi-structural model of the U.S. economy that jointly characterizes the trend and cyclical factors of key macroeconomic variables such as output, the unemployment rate, inflation, and short- and long-term interest rates. We specify a monetary policy rule and an equation that characterizes the 10-year Treasury yield to exploit the information provided by both interest rates to infer r*. However, the use of a monetary policy rule with a sample that spans the Great Recession and its aftermath poses a challenge because of the effective lower ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2020-085
Working Paper
Income in the Off-Season: Household Adaptation to Yearly Work Interruptions
Coglianese, John M.; Price, Brendan M.
(2020-10-07)
Joblessness is highly seasonal. To analyze how households adapt to seasonal joblessness, we introduce a measure of seasonal work interruptions premised on the idea that a seasonal worker will tend to exit employment around the same time each year. We show that an excess share of prime-age US workers experience recurrent separations spaced exactly 12 months apart. These separations coincide with aggregate seasonal downturns and are concentrated in seasonally volatile industries. Examining workers most prone to seasonal work interruptions, we find that these workers incur large earnings losses ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2020-084
Working Paper
Average Is Good Enough: Average-Inflation Targeting and the ELB
Leduc, Sylvain; Gnocchi, Stefano; Wagner, Joel; Amano, Robert
(2020-06-24)
The Great Recession and current pandemic have focused attention on the constraint on nominal interest rates from the effective lower bound. This has renewed interest in monetary policies that embed makeup strategies, such as price-level or average-inflation targeting. This paper examines the properties of average-inflation targeting in a two-agent New Keynesian (TANK) model in which a fraction of firms have adaptive expectations. We examine the optimal degree of history dependence under average-inflation targeting and find it to be relatively short for business cycle shocks of standard ...
Working Paper Series
, Paper 2020-21
Working Paper
Business Exit During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Non-Traditional Measures in Historical Context
Crane, Leland; Decker, Ryan; Flaaen, Aaron; Hamins-Puertolas, Adrian; Kurz, Christopher J.
(2020-10-22)
Given lags in official data releases, economists have studied "alternative data" measures of business exit resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. Such measures are difficult to understand without historical context, so we review official data on business exit in recent decades. Business exit is common in the U.S., with about 7.5 percent of firms exiting annually in recent years, and is countercyclical (particularly recently). Both the high level and the cyclicality of exit are driven by very small firms. We explore a range of alternative measures and indicators of business exit, including ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2020-089
Working Paper
Measuring Uncertainty and Its Effects in the COVID-19 Era
Carriero, Andrea; Clark, Todd E.; Marcellino, Massimiliano; Mertens, Elmar
(2020-10-23)
We measure the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak on macroeconomic and financial uncertainty, and we assess the consequences of the latter for key economic variables. We use a large, heteroskedastic vector autoregression (VAR) in which the error volatilities share two common factors, interpreted as macro and financial uncertainty, in addition to idiosyncratic components. Macro and financial uncertainty are allowed to contemporaneously affect the macroeconomy and financial conditions, with changes in the common component of the volatilities providing contemporaneous identifying information on ...
Working Papers
, Paper 202032
Working Paper
The Distributional Effects of COVID-19 and Optimal Mitigation Policies
Hur, Sewon
(2020-10-23)
This paper develops a quantitative heterogeneous agent–life cycle model with a fully integrated epidemiological model in which economic decisions affect the spread of COVID-19 and, conversely, the virus affects economic decisions. The calibrated model is used to study the distributional consequences and effectiveness of two mitigation policies: a stay-at-home subsidy that subsidizes reduced hours worked and a stay-at-home order that limits outside hours. First, the stay-at-home subsidy is preferred because it reduces deaths by more and output by less, leading to a larger average welfare ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 400
Working Paper
Spousal Labor Supply Response to Job Displacement and Implications for Optimal Transfers
Birinci, Serdar
(2019-09)
I document a small spousal earnings response to the job displacement of the family head. The response is even smaller in recessions, when additional insurance is most valuable. I investigate whether the small response is an outcome of the crowding-out effects of existing government transfers, using a model where labor supply elasticities with respect to transfers are in line with microeconomic estimates both in aggregate and across subpopulations. Counterfactual experiments reveal that generous transfers in recessions discourage the spousal labor supply significantly. I then show that the ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2020-020
Report
Latent Heterogeneity in the Marginal Propensity to Consume
Melcangi, Davide; Lewis, Daniel J.; Pilossoph, Laura
(2019-11-01)
We estimate the distribution of marginal propensities to consume (MPCs) using a novel clustering approach that generalizes the fuzzy C-means algorithm to regression settings. We apply the estimator to the 2008 stimulus payments, exploiting the randomized timing of disbursements, and find considerable heterogeneity in MPCs that varies by consumption good. We document observable determinants of this heterogeneity, without imposing ex ante assumptions on such relationships; MPCs correlate positively with income and the average propensity to consume, but much heterogeneity remains unexplained. ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 902
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E3 1 items
E6 1 items
E71 1 items
F00 1 items
F11 1 items
F13 1 items
F14 1 items
F15 1 items
F17 1 items
F21 1 items
F23 1 items
F3 1 items
F30 1 items
F36 1 items
F43 1 items
F45 1 items
F47 1 items
F66 1 items
G13 1 items
G14 1 items
G30 1 items
G51 1 items
H1 1 items
H12 1 items
H22 1 items
H25 1 items
H30 1 items
H32 1 items
H50 1 items
H51 1 items
H57 1 items
H71 1 items
H72 1 items
I10 1 items
I12 1 items
I30 1 items
J00 1 items
J10 1 items
J26 1 items
J46 1 items
J62 1 items
L1 1 items
L10 1 items
L13 1 items
L60 1 items
N26 1 items
N32 1 items
O13 1 items
O16 1 items
O23 1 items
O3 1 items
O31 1 items
O50 1 items
O51 1 items
O53 1 items
R1 1 items
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FILTER BY Keywords
Business cycles 63 items
monetary policy 47 items
Unemployment 25 items
COVID-19 18 items
Zero lower bound 18 items
forward guidance 16 items
Uncertainty 13 items
Business cycle 12 items
Financial frictions 12 items
Stochastic Volatility 12 items
Great Recession 11 items
Productivity 11 items
Effective Lower Bound 11 items
Financial Crisis 10 items
Firm Dynamics 10 items
Recession 8 items
Bayesian estimation 8 items
Fiscal policy 8 items
pandemic 7 items
DSGE models 7 items
Inflation Targeting 7 items
Inflation 6 items
Macroprudential policy 6 items
Tail Risk 6 items
Unemployment Insurance 6 items
heterogeneous agents 6 items
Inventories 5 items
Job Search 5 items
Bayesian methods 5 items
Consumption 5 items
Great Moderation 5 items
Leverage 5 items
Uncertainty shocks 5 items
asset pricing 5 items
balance sheet policies 5 items
financial intermediation 5 items
general equilibrium 5 items
structural changes 5 items
International Business Cycles 5 items
Employment 4 items
Global Financial Crisis 2007–09 4 items
Phillips curve 4 items
local projections 4 items
Banks 4 items
Credit constraints 4 items
Financial crises 4 items
Financial stability 4 items
News Shocks 4 items
Optimal policy 4 items
Recessions 4 items
collateral constraints 4 items
coronavirus 4 items
debt 4 items
house prices 4 items
identification 4 items
liquidity trap 4 items
incomplete markets 4 items
Bayesian learning 3 items
Credit 3 items
Disinflation 3 items
Dynamic Factor Models 3 items
Dynamic factor model 3 items
Financial shocks 3 items
Forecasting 3 items
Interest rates 3 items
Labor market frictions 3 items
Markov-switching 3 items
Output gap 3 items
Risky Steady State 3 items
Structural VAR 3 items
Taylor rule 3 items
Time-varying volatility 3 items
Vacancies 3 items
aggregate fluctuations 3 items
asymmetry 3 items
liquidity premium 3 items
private information 3 items
sudden stops 3 items
Credit crunch 3 items
Labor Force Participation 3 items
bank lending 3 items
euro area 3 items
government spending 3 items
inflation expectations 3 items
input-output linkages 3 items
labor share 3 items
Adverse selection 2 items
Argentina 2 items
Banking panic 2 items
Bayesian inference 2 items
Commitment 2 items
Credibility 2 items
DSGE 2 items
DSGE model 2 items
Deflationary Bias 2 items
Duration dependence 2 items
Economic Activity 2 items
Economic Uncertainty 2 items
Endogeneity 2 items
Entry 2 items
Exit 2 items
Expectations 2 items
Extended Kalman filter 2 items
Firm size distribution 2 items
Fiscal Policy and Household Behavior 2 items
Fiscal devaluation 2 items
Globalization 2 items
Household labor dynamics 2 items
Housing 2 items
Income inequality 2 items
Inflation target 2 items
Investment 2 items
Kalman filter 2 items
Labor Market Search 2 items
Labor income risk 2 items
Labor market 2 items
Labor wedge 2 items
Macroeconomic volatility 2 items
Markov Switching 2 items
Nonlinear 2 items
Optimal monetary policy 2 items
Recovery 2 items
Risk 2 items
Search and Matching 2 items
Skewness 2 items
Slow recoveries 2 items
Sovereign Default 2 items
State space model 2 items
Structural breaks 2 items
Synchronization 2 items
Unobserved heterogeneity 2 items
bank loans 2 items
bargaining shocks 2 items
belief-driven business cycles 2 items
business cycles. 2 items
business expectations 2 items
cluster analysis 2 items
comovements 2 items
costly external finance 2 items
currency premium 2 items
current account 2 items
cycles 2 items
debt management policy 2 items
demand shock 2 items
depression 2 items
elasticity puzzle 2 items
endogenous TFP 2 items
expectations stabilization 2 items
fluctuations 2 items
generalized impulse response functions 2 items
growth model 2 items
housing market 2 items
inflation measurement 2 items
leverage constraints 2 items
macro-finance 2 items
macroprudential policy. 2 items
markups 2 items
maturity structure 2 items
military spending 2 items
multi-sector Calvo model 2 items
natural rate of unemployment 2 items
pandemics 2 items
policy 2 items
potential output 2 items
random coefficients 2 items
rational expectations 2 items
real estate 2 items
replacement hiring 2 items
risk premium 2 items
search frictions 2 items
signaling 2 items
small business 2 items
supply shock 2 items
survey expectations 2 items
time-varying threshold VAR 2 items
trade-comovement puzzle 2 items
unemployment flows 2 items
yield curve 2 items
Bank Runs 2 items
Business Cycle Fluctuations 2 items
Financial Accelerator 2 items
Human Capital 2 items
Impulse Response Matching 2 items
Long-Run Restrictions 2 items
1918 Flu Pandemic 1 items
1918 Spanish influenza 1 items
1918 influenza 1 items
2007-2009 recession 1 items
Abenomics 1 items
Accounting Decomposition 1 items
Adaptive algorithms 1 items
Aggregate economic theory 1 items
Aggregate financial economics 1 items
Aggregate matching efficiency 1 items
Aggregation 1 items
American Time Use Survey 1 items
Asset price 1 items
Asset returns 1 items
Autoregressive 1 items
Bailouts 1 items
Balance sheet recession 1 items
Bank Profitability 1 items
Bank capital 1 items
Bank credit 1 items
Bank networks 1 items
Banking 1 items
Banking Panics 1 items
Banking integration 1 items
Bankruptcy 1 items
Bayesian VAR 1 items
Bayesian VARs 1 items
Bayesian analysis 1 items
Beveridge curve 1 items
Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition 1 items
Bond Forward Guidance 1 items
Bond return predictability 1 items
Borrowing constraints 1 items
Business Cycle Fluctuation 1 items
Business applications 1 items
Business cycle uncertainty 1 items
Business cycle volatility 1 items
Business dynamics 1 items
Business exit 1 items
Business formation 1 items
Businesses 1 items
C-means 1 items
CARES act 1 items
CES Production 1 items
Capital Reallocation 1 items
Capital Search 1 items
Capital controls 1 items
Central bank communication 1 items
Changes in cyclical volatilities 1 items
Coincident measures 1 items
Collateral 1 items
Commitment policies 1 items
Commodity Prices 1 items
Comovement 1 items
Competitive Search 1 items
Computation 1 items
Computational methods 1 items
Conditional response 1 items
Consumer credit 1 items
Core inflation 1 items
Corporate Default 1 items
Correlated unobserved components 1 items
Cost of Business Cycles 1 items
Credible policy 1 items
Credit Constrains 1 items
Credit Lines 1 items
Credit Reallocation 1 items
Credit channel 1 items
Credit cycles 1 items
Credit frictions 1 items
Credit network 1 items
Credit policies 1 items
Credit relationships 1 items
Credit view 1 items
Credit-market sentiment 1 items
Cross-Sectional Skewness 1 items
Cross-country 1 items
Cross-country data 1 items
Current Economic Conditions 1 items
Curse of Dimensionality 1 items
Customer Capital 1 items
DSGE economy 1 items
Data rich environment 1 items
Debt constraints 1 items
Default 1 items
Default Risk 1 items
Deflation 1 items
Density forecasts 1 items
Deposit contract 1 items
Depressions 1 items
Devaluation 1 items
Development 1 items
Diamond-Mortenson-Pissarides model 1 items
Diffusion Index 1 items
Disaggregate consumer prices 1 items
Discount Factor Shocks 1 items
Discount factor heterogeneity 1 items
Discrete Choice 1 items
Discretion 1 items
Discretization 1 items
Distributional Effect of Monetary Policy 1 items
Durables 1 items
Duration analysis 1 items
Dynamic Heterogeneity 1 items
Dynamic spillovers 1 items
ELB 1 items
EM algorithm 1 items
Early Warning Indicators 1 items
Early warning 1 items
Earnings losses upon displacement 1 items
Earnings risk 1 items
Economic activity index 1 items
Economic indicators 1 items
Economic recovery 1 items
Economy 1 items
Employment protection 1 items
Employment stabilization policies 1 items
Endogenous Borrowing Constraints 1 items
Endogenous Collateral Constraints 1 items
Endogenous Dispersion of rmsTFP 1 items
Endogenous Technology 1 items
Endogenous Total Factor Productivity 1 items
Endogenous idiosyncratic risk 1 items
Endogenous uncertainty 1 items
Endogenous volatility 1 items
Entry and Exit 1 items
Epstein-Zin Preferences 1 items
Estimation 1 items
Eurozone 1 items
Exchange rates 1 items
Expectations-driven trap 1 items
Experimental economics 1 items
Exporter Behavior 1 items
Exports 1 items
External validation 1 items
FAVAR 1 items
Factor model 1 items
Federal Procurement 1 items
Federal Reserve balance sheets 1 items
Federal Reserve district 1 items
Financial Channel 1 items
Financial Development 1 items
Financial conditions 1 items
Financial constraints 1 items
Financial deregulation 1 items
Financial linkages 1 items
Financial recession 1 items
Firm entry 1 items
Firm heterogeneity 1 items
Firm networks 1 items
Firm size 1 items
Firm-level data 1 items
Firms 1 items
Firms dynamics 1 items
Firms entry 1 items
Fiscal 1 items
Fiscal Policy Transmission 1 items
Fiscal Union 1 items
Forecast Data 1 items
Forecasting error variance 1 items
Foreclosures 1 items
Fragmented Markets 1 items
Frinancial Frictions 1 items
GDP at risk 1 items
GDP growth 1 items
GDP growth target 1 items
Genuine duration dependence 1 items
Geopolitical Risk 1 items
Global VAR (GVAR) approach 1 items
Global and regional business cycles 1 items
Global financial crisis 1 items
Goods market frictions 1 items
Goods market search 1 items
Government transfers 1 items
Granular Residual 1 items
Granularity 1 items
Great Depression 1 items
Great Inflation 1 items
Greek Depression 1 items
Greenbook forecasts 1 items
Gross Domestic Product 1 items
HANK model 1 items
Hazard rates 1 items
Heterogeneous Firms 1 items
Heterogeneous Money Demand 1 items
Heterogeneous agent New Keynesian models 1 items
Heterogeneous-agent model 1 items
Hiring 1 items
Hiring costs 1 items
Hiring subsidies 1 items
History-dependent policy 1 items
Household balance sheets 1 items
Household debt 1 items
Household income 1 items
Housing Finance 1 items
Housing bubbles 1 items
Identifcation 1 items
Immoderation 1 items
Indeterminacy 1 items
Industry heterogeneity 1 items
Inequality 1 items
Inflation bias 1 items
Inflation dynamics 1 items
Inflation stabilization 1 items
Information 1 items
Information Frictions 1 items
Information value 1 items
Informed trading 1 items
Input-output network 1 items
Intangible capital 1 items
Intangible investments 1 items
Interest rate rules 1 items
International Co-Movement 1 items
International Risk Sharing 1 items
Investment Wedge 1 items
Investment-specific productivity 1 items
Japan 1 items
Job Polarization 1 items
Job destruction 1 items
Job flows 1 items
Job loss 1 items
Job openings 1 items
Job separation 1 items
Korean economy 1 items
Labor Search 1 items
Labor Supply 1 items
Labor flows 1 items
Labor force 1 items
Labor force participation rate 1 items
Large-scale asset purchases 1 items
Latent variable 1 items
Learning 1 items
Lending standards 1 items
Limited Commitment 1 items
Limited regulation enforcement 1 items
Liquidity Insurance 1 items
Liquidity Preference 1 items
Liquidity Traps 1 items
Liquidity constraints 1 items
Lumpy Investment 1 items
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