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Working Paper
The Domestic and International Effects of Interstate U.S. Banking
Stebunovs, Viktors; Ghironi, Fabio; Cacciatore, Matteo (2014-08-01)
This paper studies the domestic and international effects of national bank market integration in a two-country, dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium model with endogenous producer entry. Integration of banking across localities reduces the degree of local monopoly power of financial intermediaries. The economy that implements this form of deregulation experiences increased producer entry, real exchange rate appreciation, and a current account deficit. The foreign economy experiences a long-run increase in GDP and consumption. Less monopoly power in financial intermediation results in less ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1111

Discussion Paper
Market Failures and Official Sector Interventions
Kovner, Anna; Martin, Antoine (2020-09-23)
In the United States and other free market economies, the official sector typically has minimal involvement in market activities absent a clear rationale to justify intervention, such as a market failure. In this post, we consider arguments for official sector intervention, focusing on the market failure arising from externalities related to business closures. These externalities are likely to be particularly high for closures arising from pandemic-related economic disruptions. We discuss how the official sector, including institutions such as Congress and the Treasury, can increase social ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200923

Working Paper
Should We Be Puzzled by Forward Guidance?
Bundick, Brent; Smith, Andrew Lee (2020-04-30)
Although a growing literature argues output is too sensitive to future interest rates in standard macroeconomic models, little empirical evidence has been put forth to evaluate this claim. In this paper, we use a range of vector autoregression models to answer the central question of how much output responds to changes in interest rate expectations following a monetary policy shock. Despite distinct identification strategies and sample periods, we find surprising agreement regarding this elasticity across empirical models. We then show that in a standard model of nominal rigidity estimated ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 20-01

Working Paper
The cost of business cycles with heterogeneous trading technologies
Chien, YiLi (2014-06-10)
This paper investigates the welfare cost of business cycles in an economy where households have heterogeneous trading technologies. In an economy with aggregate risk, the different portfolio choices induced by heterogeneous trading technologies lead to a larger consumption inequality in equilibrium, while this source of inequality vanishes in an economy without business cycles. Put simply, the heterogeneity in trading technologies amplifies the effect of aggregate output fluctuation on consumption inequality. The welfare cost of business cycles is, therefore, larger in such an economy. In the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-15

Working Paper
Accounting for Productivity Dispersion over the Business Cycle
Zeke, David; Kurtzman, Robert J. (2016-05-20)
This paper presents accounting decompositions of changes in aggregate labor and capital productivity. Our simplest decomposition breaks changes in an aggregate productivity ratio into two components: A mean component, which captures common changes to firm factor productivity ratios, and a dispersion component, which captures changes in the variance and higher order moments of their distribution. In standard models with heterogeneous firms and frictions to firm input decisions, the dispersion component is a function of changes in the second and higher moments of the log of marginal revenue ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2016-045

Working Paper
The ups and downs of the gig economy, 2015–2017
Burke, Mary A.; Bracha, Anat (2018-10-01)
A variety of researchers and public entities have estimated the prevalence of nontraditional work arrangements ? using diverse definitions ? in recent decades, and the topic has received increasing attention in the past five years. Despite numerous media reports that the prevalence of nonstandard work has increased since the Great Recession, not all sources agree on this point, and very little evidence exists relating to hours or earnings from such arrangements and their changes over time. Using unique data from the Survey of Informal Work Participation (SIWP), we describe changes in informal ...
Working Papers , Paper 18-12

Working Paper
Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest in an Open Economy
Zhang, Ren; Wynne, Mark A. (2017-06-20)
The concept of the natural or equilibrium rate of interest has attracted a lot of attention from monetary policymakers in recent years. Most attempts to estimate the natural rate use a closed economy framework. We argue that in the face of greater integration of global product and capital markets, an open economy framework is more appropriate. We provide some initial estimates of the natural rate for the United States and Japan in a two-country framework. Our identifying assumptions include a close relationship between the time-varying natural rate of interest and the low-frequency ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 316

Working Paper
Macroelasticities and the U.S. sequestration budget cuts
Zarazaga, Carlos E. (2014-11-01)
Microeconomic studies keep reporting that the intertemporal substitution in consumption and the Frisch elasticity of aggregate labor supply have significantly lower values than macroeconomic models find consistent with the dynamics of aggregate variables. The paper argues that in the U.S. such dynamics have been influenced since 2013 by the temporary spending cuts imposed by the so-called budget sequestration. The paper exploits the "policy experiment" features of that measure to gauge macroelasticity values from the evidence associated with it, adopting to that effect a macroeconomic model ...
Working Papers , Paper 1412

Working Paper
Some Implications of Uncertainty and Misperception for Monetary Policy
López-Salido, J. David; Hebden, James; Erceg, Christopher J.; Kiley, Michael T.; Tetlow, Robert J. (2018-08-23)
When choosing a strategy for monetary policy, policymakers must grapple with mismeasurement of labor market slack, and of the responsiveness of price inflation to that slack. Using stochastic simulations of a small-scale version of the Federal Reserve Board?s principal New Keynesian macroeconomic model, we evaluate representative rule-based policy strategies, paying particular attention to how those strategies interact with initial conditions in the U.S. as they are seen today and with the current outlook. To do this, we construct a current relevant baseline forecast, one that is loosely ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-059

Working Paper
Potential Output and Recessions: Are We Fooling Ourselves?
Munyan, Teyanna; Wilson, Beth Anne; Martin, Robert F. (2015-09-11)
This paper studies the impact of recessions on the longer-run level of output using data on 23 advanced economies over the past 40 years. We find that severe recessions have a sustained and sizable negative impact on the level of output. This sustained decline in output raises questions about the underlying properties of output and how we model trend output or potential around recessions. We find little support for the view that output rises faster than trend immediately following recessions to close the output gap. Indeed, we find little evidence that growth is faster following recessions ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1145

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