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Working Paper
Central bank credibility and the persistence of inflation and inflation expectations
Davis, J. Scott
(2012)
This paper introduces a model where agents are unsure about the central bank's inflation target. They believe that the central bank's inflation target could lie between two extremes, and their beliefs vary depending on the central bank's stock of credibility. They form the expectations used in price and wage setting using this perceived inflation target, and they use past observations of inflation to update their beliefs about the credibility of the central bank. Thus a series of high inflation observations can lead them to believe (incorrectly) that the central bank has adopted a high ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 117
Working Paper
Anchored Inflation Expectations and the Flatter Phillips Curve
Jorgensen, Peter; Lansing, Kevin J.
(2019-11-06)
Conventional versions of the Phillips curve cannot account for inflation dynamics during and after the U.S. Great Recession, leading many to conclude that the Phillips curve relationship has weakened or even disappeared. We show that if agents solve a signal extraction problem to disentangle temporary versus permanent shocks to inflation, then agents? inflation expectations should have become more ?anchored? over the Great Moderation period. An estimated New Keynesian Phillips curve that accounts for the increased anchoring of expected inflation exhibits a stable slope coefficient over the ...
Working Paper Series
, Paper 2019-27
Working Paper
Mechanics of Linear Quadratic Gaussian Rational Inattention Tracking Problems
Fulton, Chad
(2017-11-03)
This paper presents a general framework for constructing and solving the multivariate static linear quadratic Gaussian (LQG) rational inattention tracking problem. We interpret the nature of the solution and the implied action of the agent, and we construct representations that formalize how the agent processes data. We apply this infrastructure to the rational inattention price-setting problem, confirming the result that a conditional response to economics shocks is possible, but casting doubt on a common assumption made in the literature. We show that multiple equilibria and a social cost ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2017-109
Working Paper
Monetary Policy, Housing Rents and Inflation Dynamics
Dias, Daniel A.; Duarte, Joao B.
(2019-05-23)
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 1248
Working Paper
Accounting for persistence and volatility of good-level real exchange rates: the role of sticky information
Crucini, Mario J.; Tsuruga, Takayuki; Shintani, Mototsugu
(2008)
Volatile and persistent real exchange rates are observed not only in aggregate series but also on the individual good level data. Kehoe and Midrigan (2007) recently showed that, under a standard assumption on nominal price stickiness, empirical frequencies of micro price adjustment cannot replicate the time-series properties of the law-of-one-price deviations. We extend their sticky price model by combining good specific price adjustment with information stickiness in the sense of Mankiw and Reis (2002). Under a reasonable assumption on the money growth process, we show that the model fully ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 07
Working Paper
Inequality in the Welfare Costs of Disinflation
Pugsley, Benjamin; Rubinton, Hannah
(2019-12-04)
We use an incomplete markets economy to quantify the distribution of welfare gains and losses of the US "Volcker" disinflation. In the long run households prefer low inflation, but disinflation requires a transition period and a redistribution from net nominal borrowers to net nominal savers. Even with perfectly flexible prices, welfare costs may be significant for households with nominal liabilities. When calibrated to match the micro and macro moments of the early 1980s high inflation environment, almost half of all borrowers (14 percent of all households) would prefer to avoid the ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2020-021
Working Paper
Monetary Policy and Economic Performance since the Financial Crisis
Caldara, Dario; Gagnon, Etienne; Martínez-García, Enrique; Neely, Christopher J.
(2020-08-27)
We review macroeconomic performance over the period since the Global Financial Crisis and the challenges in the pursuit of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. We characterize the use of forward guidance and balance sheet policies after the federal funds rate reached the effective lower bound. We also review the evidence on the efficacy of these tools and consider whether policymakers might have used them more forcefully. Finally, we examine the post-crisis experience of other major central banks with these policy tools.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2020-065
Working Paper
Monetary Policy, Self-Fulfilling Expectations and the U.S. Business Cycle
Nicolo, Giovanni
(2020-05-05)
I estimate a medium-scale New-Keynesian model and relax the conventional assumption that the central bank adopted an active monetary policy by pursuing inflation and output stability over the entire post-war period. Even after accounting for a rich structure, I find that monetary policy was passive prior to the Volcker disinflation. Sunspot shocks did not represent quantitatively relevant sources of volatility. By contrast, such passive interest rate policy accommodated fundamental productivity and cost shocks that de-anchored inflation expectations, propagated via self-fulfilling inflation ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2020-035
Report
The effect of question wording on reported expectations and perceptions of inflation
Armantier, Olivier; Downs, Julie S.; Topa, Giorgio; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Fischhoff, Baruch; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi
(2010)
Public expectations and perceptions of inflation may affect economic decisions, and have subsequent effects on actual inflation. The Michigan Survey of Consumers uses questions about "prices in general" to measure expected and perceived inflation. Median responses track official measure of inflation, showing some tendency toward overestimation and considerable disagreement between respondents. Possibly, responses reflect how much respondents thought of salient personal experiences with specific prices when being asked about "prices in general." Here, we randomly assigned respondents to ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 443
Discussion Paper
Assessing monetary accommodation: a simple empirical model of monetary policy and its implications for unemployment and inflation
Armen, Alan ; Koenig, Evan F.
(2015-12)
This note suggests that household wealth growth and a long-forward interest rate can be used to construct a simple and convenient reference standard for assessing the current stance of monetary policy. It shows that the difference between the federal funds rate and this reference interest rate is a powerful predictor of the unemployment rate and inflation, producing real-time forecasts that are competitive with consensus-based forecasts from surveys of forecasting professionals. Moreover, one can understand past FOMC policy actions as efforts to adjust the stance of policy, so measured, in ...
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Time inconsistency 1 items
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Time-Varying Labor Wedge 1 items
Time-Varying Money Demand 1 items
Time-Varying Velocity of Money 1 items
Time-varying transition probabilities 1 items
Trade share 1 items
Transition dynamics 1 items
Transitions 1 items
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) 1 items
U.S. cities 1 items
U.S. monetary policy 1 items
Unconventional monetary policy 1 items
Unconventional policies 1 items
Unemployment 1 items
VECM 1 items
Vector Autoregression (VAR) 1 items
Velocity 1 items
Volcker disinflation 1 items
Wage Inflation 1 items
Wages 1 items
Wealth distribution 1 items
Welfare 1 items
Welfare Cost of Inflation 1 items
Welfare Costs of Inflation 1 items
Welfare implications 1 items
ZLB 1 items
absolute loss 1 items
aging 1 items
anchor 1 items
asset prices 1 items
asset pricing 1 items
asymmetric rules 1 items
bank risk 1 items
bimodality 1 items
central bank design 1 items
conditional forecasting 1 items
consumer forecast accuracy 1 items
consumption 1 items
coordination 1 items
cost channel 1 items
costly external finance 1 items
credible disinflation 1 items
cyclical 1 items
delayed anchoring 1 items
disaggregate price indices 1 items
disaggregated inflation forecasting models 1 items
disanchoring of inflation expectations 1 items
domestic nominal debt 1 items
dynamic factor models 1 items
economic stabilization 1 items
effective prices 1 items
emergency budget 1 items
equilibrium real rate 1 items
eviction 1 items
expectations formation 1 items
financial frictions 1 items
financial shocks 1 items
firm productivity 1 items
frequency-dependence 1 items
fundamental inflation 1 items
gasoline price 1 items
gig economy 1 items
heterogeneous expectations 1 items
high frequency identification 1 items
household survey 1 items
households 1 items
housing depreciation 1 items
housing economics 1 items
housing markets 1 items
imperfect nformation 1 items
import prices 1 items
impulse response 1 items
inattention 1 items
inflation premia 1 items
inflation risk premium 1 items
inflation uncertainty and disagreement 1 items
inflation-output tradeoff 1 items
interbank connections 1 items
international trade 1 items
intrinsic inflation persistence 1 items
job ladder 1 items
joint inference 1 items
levels 1 items
linear prediction pools 1 items
local aggregate effects 1 items
loss function 1 items
low income 1 items
macroeconomic literacy 1 items
macroeconomics 1 items
make-up strategies 1 items
marginal costs 1 items
mark-up 1 items
median 1 items
minimum wage increases 1 items
misallocation 1 items
missing deflation 1 items
model uncertainty 1 items
monetary news 1 items
narrative evidence 1 items
natural interest rate 1 items
neutral rate 1 items
nine-ending prices 1 items
nominal rigidities 1 items
nonpayment 1 items
onetary policy 1 items
online sales 1 items
opportunistic reflation 1 items
persistent disagreement 1 items
population 1 items
posterior 1 items
price formation 1 items
price levels 1 items
price points 1 items
price rigidity 1 items
price stability 1 items
pricing behavior 1 items
probability distributions 1 items
question design 1 items
randomized controlled trials 1 items
real rate risk premium 1 items
real rates 1 items
regime change 1 items
rental housing 1 items
rental prices 1 items
risk factors 1 items
risk premia 1 items
rules 1 items
sales 1 items
seasonal adjustment 1 items
self-employment 1 items
shelter inflation 1 items
shock-specific policy rules 1 items
sovereign default 1 items
spectral regression 1 items
spillover effects 1 items
stagflation 1 items
state space model 1 items
steady state real interest rate 1 items
steady-state real interest rate 1 items
sticky customer base 1 items
sticky information 1 items
stock market 1 items
strategic complementarities 1 items
term premia 1 items
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