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Working Paper
Monitoring Money for Price Stability
Nicolini, Juan Pablo; Hevia, Constantino
(2017-11-14)
In this paper, we use a simple model of money demand to characterize the behavior of monetary aggregates in the United States from 1960 to 2016. We argue that the demand for the currency component of the monetary base has been remarkably stable during this period. We use the model to make projections of the nominal quantity of cash in circulation under alternative future paths for the federal funds rate. Our calculations suggest that if the federal funds rate is lifted up as suggested by the survey of economic projections made by the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the ...
Working Papers
, Paper 744
Working Paper
The Effect of Monetary Policy on Housing Tenure Choice as an Explanation for the Price Puzzle
Dias, Daniel A.; Duarte, Joao B.
(2016-06)
In this paper we provide an alternative explanation for the price puzzle (Sims 1992) based on the effect of monetary policy on housing tenure choice and the weight of the shelter component in overall CPI. In the presence of nominal or financial frictions, when interest rates increase, the real cost of owning a house increases, and this increase may make some people prefer to rent instead of buying. This change in consumption behavior increases the price of rents relative to other goods. Starting in 1983, homeownership costs are based on a measure of implied owner equivalent rent, which is ...
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 1171
Working Paper
Monetary Policy and Economic Performance since the Financial Crisis
Caldara, Dario; Gagnon, Etienne; Martinez-Garcia, Enrique; Neely, Christopher J.
(2020-08-27)
We review macroeconomic performance over the period since the Global Financial Crisis and the challenges in the pursuit of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. We characterize the use of forward guidance and balance sheet policies after the federal funds rate reached the effective lower bound. We also review the evidence on the efficacy of these tools and consider whether policymakers might have used them more forcefully. Finally, we examine the post-crisis experience of other major central banks with these policy tools.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2020-065
Working Paper
Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited
Kurozumi, Takushi; Hirose, Yasuo; Van Zandweghe, Willem
(2019-06-27)
A large literature has established that the Fed? change from a passive to an active policy response to inflation led to US macroeconomic stability after the Great Inflation of the 1970s. This paper revisits the literature?s view by estimating a generalized New Keynesian model using a full-information Bayesian method that allows for equilibrium indeterminacy and adopts a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm. The model empirically outperforms canonical New Keynesian models that confirm the literature?s view. Our estimated model shows an active policy response to inflation even during the Great ...
Working Papers
, Paper 19-14
Working Paper
How Do Housing Markets Affect Local Consumer Prices? – Evidence from U.S. Cities
Jo, Soojin; Choi, Chi-Young
(2020-08-27)
Analyzing city-level retail price data for a variety of consumer products, we find that house price changes lead local consumer price changes, but not vice versa. The transmission of the house price changes differs substantially across locations and products. It also hinges on the nature of housing market shocks; housing supply shocks propagate through the cost-push channel via local cost and markup effects, while housing demand shocks transmit through conventional wealth and collateral effects. Our findings suggest that housing may exert greater impacts on the local cost-of-living and ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 398
Report
An overview of the Survey of Consumer Expectations
Armantier, Olivier; Zafar, Basit; Topa, Giorgio; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert
(2016-11-17)
This report presents an overview of the Survey of Consumer Expectations, a new monthly online survey of a rotating panel of household heads. The survey collects timely information on consumers? expectations and decisions on a broad variety of topics, including but not limited to inflation, household finance, the labor market, and the housing market. There are three main goals of the survey: (1) measuring consumer expectations at a high frequency, (2) understanding how these expectations are formed, and (3) investigating the link between expectations and behavior. This report discusses the ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 800
Working Paper
The Usefulness of the Median CPI in Bayesian VARs Used for Macroeconomic Forecasting and Policy
Zaman, Saeed; Meyer, Brent
(2016-11-01)
In this paper we investigate the forecasting performance of the median Consumer Price Index (CPI) in a variety of Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs) that are often used for monetary policy. Until now, the use of trimmed-mean price statistics in forecasting inflation has often been relegated to simple univariate or Phillips curve approaches, thus limiting their usefulness in applications that require consistent forecasts of multiple macro variables. We find that inclusion of an extreme trimmed-mean measure?the median CPI?improves the forecasts of both core and headline inflation (CPI and ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 2016-13
Working Paper
Bad Jobs and Low Inflation
Melosi, Leonardo; Faccini, Renato
(2020-03-02)
We study a model in which firms compete to retain and attract workers searching on the job. A drop in the rate of on-the-job search makes such wage competition less likely, reducing expected labor costs and lowering inflation. This model explains why inflation has remained subdued over the last decade, which is a conundrum for general equilibrium models and Phillips curves. Key to this success is the observed slowdown in the recovery of the employment-to-employment transition rate in the last five years, which is interpreted by the model as a decline in the share of employed workers searching ...
Working Paper Series
, Paper WP 2020-09
Working Paper
Monetary Policy and Economic Performance Since the Financial Crisis
Caldara, Dario; Gagnon, Etienne; Martinez-Garcia, Enrique; Neely, Christopher J.
(2020-08-28)
We review the macroeconomic performance over the period since the Global Financial Crisis and the challenges in the pursuit of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. We characterize the use of forward guidance and balance sheet policies after the federal funds rate reached the effective lower bound. We also review the evidence on the efficacy of these tools and consider whether policymakers might have used them more forcefully. Finally, we examine the post-crisis experience of other major central banks with these policy tools.
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 399
Working Paper
Escaping the Great Recession
Melosi, Leonardo; Bianchi, Francesco
(2016-09-16)
We show that policy uncertainty about how the rising public debt will be stabilized accounts for the lack of deflation in the US economy at the zero lower bound. We first estimate a Markov-switching VAR to highlight that a zero-lower-bound regime captures most of the comovements during the Great Recession: a deep recession, no deflation, and large fiscal imbalances. We then show that a micro-founded model that features policy uncertainty accounts for these stylized facts. Finally, we highlight that policy uncertainty arises at the zero lower bound because of a trade-off between mitigating the ...
Working Paper Series
, Paper WP-2016-16
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Goods 1 items
Government budget constraint 1 items
Great Depression 1 items
Grid Searching 1 items
Gross Domestic Product 1 items
Growth rate 1 items
Hedonic indexes 1 items
Hedonic price index 1 items
Heterogeneous Effects of Monetary Policy 1 items
Heterogeneous Money Demand 1 items
Homeownership 1 items
Household debt 1 items
Housing 1 items
Housing market 1 items
Housing rental rates 1 items
Housing rents 1 items
Housing rents and housing prices 1 items
Housing tenure 1 items
ICT asset prices 1 items
Incomplete Markets 1 items
Industrial production 1 items
Inflation Bias 1 items
Inflation gap persistence 1 items
Inflation perceptions 1 items
Inflation risks 1 items
Inflation stabilization 1 items
Inflation swaps 1 items
Information acquisition 1 items
Informational efficiency 1 items
Interest rate rules 1 items
Intermediate input. 1 items
International Business Cycles 1 items
International shipping 1 items
International shipping costs 1 items
Investments 1 items
Labor market 1 items
Large Scale Asset Purchases (LSAPs) 1 items
Large-scale asset purchases 1 items
Liquidity 1 items
Liquidity effect 1 items
Lucas proof 1 items
Machine learning 1 items
Macroeconomic history 1 items
Markov-switching 1 items
Markup Cyclicality 1 items
Martin Fed 1 items
Measurment 1 items
Menu cost 1 items
Metropolitan Statistical Area data 1 items
Microdata 1 items
Microprocessor 1 items
Milton Friedman 1 items
Mismeasurement 1 items
Mobile phone 1 items
Monetary Fiscal Interaction 1 items
Monetary Neutrality 1 items
Monetary policy communication 1 items
Monetary policy perceptions 1 items
Monetary/fiscal interaction 1 items
Narrative Sign Restrictions 1 items
Natural rate hypothesis 1 items
New Keynesian model 1 items
New Keynesian pricing 1 items
New monetarism 1 items
News on Inflation 1 items
Non-CES aggregator 1 items
Non-homotheticity 1 items
Offshoring 1 items
Oil 1 items
Optimal inflation rate 1 items
Optimal inflation rates 1 items
Optimal policy 1 items
Outlet substitution 1 items
Outlet substitution bias 1 items
Outsourcing 1 items
PPI 1 items
Perpetual youth 1 items
Personal consumption expenditures 1 items
Phillips correlation 1 items
Phillips correlations 1 items
Policy analysis 1 items
Policy reforms 1 items
Predictability 1 items
Price 1 items
Price Level Determination 1 items
Price indexes 1 items
Price level targeting 1 items
Price puzzle 1 items
Price stickiness 1 items
Price-setting 1 items
Prior 1 items
Producer price index 1 items
Product variety 1 items
Production Networks 1 items
Productivity 1 items
Profits 1 items
Pure inflation 1 items
Quantile regression 1 items
Rational inattention 1 items
Real Balance Effect 1 items
Real income inequality 1 items
Real interest rate 1 items
Recession 1 items
Regime Switching models 1 items
Regime switching 1 items
Relative price inflation 1 items
Retail pricing 1 items
Rule of thumb 1 items
SVAR 1 items
Scenario 1 items
Secular stagnation 1 items
Sequential Monte Carlo 1 items
Sequential Monte Carlo algorithm 1 items
Shipping costs 1 items
Signal extraction 1 items
Smartphone 1 items
Societal aging 1 items
Spatial Autoregression 1 items
Speculations 1 items
Ss model 1 items
Sticky prices 1 items
Stochastic simulation 1 items
Structural Scenario Analysis 1 items
Sunk Costs 1 items
Supply chain 1 items
Survey Forecasts 1 items
Survey based inflation expectations 1 items
Survey inflation expectations 1 items
Survey microdata 1 items
Surveys 1 items
TANK 1 items
TARGET2 1 items
TIPS 1 items
Tariffs 1 items
Term Structure of Interest Rates 1 items
Term premium 1 items
Threshold regression 1 items
Time inconsistency 1 items
Time variation 1 items
Time-Varying Labor Wedge 1 items
Time-Varying Money Demand 1 items
Time-Varying Velocity of Money 1 items
Time-varying transition probabilities 1 items
Trade Policy 1 items
Trade share 1 items
Transition dynamics 1 items
Transitions 1 items
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) 1 items
U.S. cities 1 items
U.S. monetary policy 1 items
Unconventional monetary policy 1 items
Unconventional policies 1 items
VECM 1 items
Vector Autoregression (VAR) 1 items
Velocity 1 items
Volatility 1 items
Wage Inflation 1 items
Wage determination 1 items
Wage-price spiral 1 items
Wages 1 items
Wealth distribution 1 items
Welfare 1 items
Welfare Cost of Inflation 1 items
absolute loss 1 items
aging 1 items
ambiguous communication 1 items
anchor 1 items
asset prices 1 items
asset pricing 1 items
asymmetric rules 1 items
average inflation targeting 1 items
bank risk 1 items
bias in price indexes 1 items
bimodality 1 items
central bank design 1 items
conditional forecasting 1 items
consumer forecast accuracy 1 items
consumption 1 items
coordination 1 items
core 1 items
corporate bond market 1 items
cost channel 1 items
cost-price pass-through 1 items
costly external finance 1 items
credible disinflation 1 items
credit ratings 1 items
credit ratings inflation 1 items
cyclical 1 items
delayed anchoring 1 items
disaggregate price indices 1 items
disaggregated consumption 1 items
disaggregated inflation forecasting models 1 items
disanchoring of inflation expectations 1 items
domestic nominal debt 1 items
dual mandate 1 items
dynamic factor models 1 items
economic stabilization 1 items
effective prices 1 items
emergency budget 1 items
equilibrium real rate 1 items
euro area 1 items
eviction 1 items
expectation 1 items
expectation anchoring 1 items
expectations formation 1 items
federal funds rate 1 items
financial frictions 1 items
financial shocks 1 items
firm productivity 1 items
frequency-dependence 1 items
fundamental inflation 1 items
gig economy 1 items
global financial crisis 1 items
global supply chain 1 items
heterogeneous expectations 1 items
high frequency identification 1 items
households 1 items
housing depreciation 1 items
housing economics 1 items
housing markets 1 items
impulse response 1 items
industry concentration 1 items
inflation forecasts 1 items
inflation risk premium 1 items
inflation uncertainty and disagreement 1 items
inflation-output tradeoff 1 items
information frictions 1 items
inputs 1 items
interbank connections 1 items
international trade 1 items
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