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Working Paper
Inflation dynamics during the financial crisis
Zakrajšek, Egon; Schoenle, Raphael; Gilchrist, Simon; Sim, Jae W. (2015-11-01)
Firms with limited internal liquidity significantly increased prices in 2008, while their liquidity unconstrained counterparts slashed prices. Differences in the firms' price-setting behavior were concentrated in sectors likely characterized by customer markets. The authors develop a model in which firms face financial frictions while setting prices in a customer-markets setting. Financial distortions create an incentive for firms to raise prices in response to adverse demand or financial shocks. These results reflect the firms' reaction to preserve internal liquidity and avoid accessing ...
FRB Atlanta CQER Working Paper , Paper 2015-4

Working Paper
The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Business Expectations
Meyer, Brent; Prescott, Brian; Sheng, Xuguang (2020-09-04)
We document and evaluate how businesses are reacting to the COVID-19 crisis through August 2020. First, on net, firms see the shock (thus far) largely as a demand rather than supply shock. A greater share of firms reports significant or severe disruption to sales activity than to supply chains. We compare these measures of disruption to their expected changes in selling prices and find that, even for firms that report supply chain disruption, they expect to lower near-term selling prices on average. We also show that firms are engaging in wage cuts and expect to trim wages further before the ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2020-17

Journal Article
Why Has Inflation Persistence Declined?
Van Zandweghe, Willem; Kurozumi, Takushi (2018-04-11)
Macro Bulletin

Working Paper
Low Passthrough from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations: Why People Dislike Inflation
Hajdini, Ina; Knotek, Edward S.; Leer, John; Pedemonte, Mathieu; Rich, Robert W.; Schoenle, Raphael (2022-06-23)
Using a novel experimental setup, we study the direction of causality between consumers’ inflation expectations and their income growth expectations. In a large, nationally representative survey of US consumers, we find that the rate of passthrough from expected inflation to expected income growth is incomplete, on the order of 20 percent. There is no statistically significant effect going in the other direction. Passthrough varies systematically with demographic and socioeconomic factors, with greater passthrough for higher-income individuals than lower-income individuals, although it is ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-21

Journal Article
Allan Meltzer and the Search for a Nominal Anchor
Bullard, James B. (2018)
The author examines Allan Meltzer?s career in terms of the search of a nominal anchor for the U.S. Inflation targeting has provided a nominal anchor, in line with Meltzer?s view of inflation as a monetary phenomenon.
Review , Volume 100 , Issue 2 , Pages 117-26

Discussion Paper
Is the Green Transition Inflationary?
Del Negro, Marco; di Giovanni, Julian; Dogra, Keshav (2023-02-14)
Are policies aimed at fighting climate change inflationary? In a new staff report we use a simple model to argue that this does not have to be the case. The model suggests that climate policies do not force a central bank to tolerate higher inflation but may generate a trade-off between inflation and employment objectives. The presence and size of this trade-off depends on how flexible prices are in the “dirty” and “green” sectors relative to the rest of the economy, and on whether climate policies consist of taxes or subsidies.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230214

Journal Article
Global Supply Chain Disruptions Can Be Seen Anywhere, but Their Costs Are Not the Same Everywhere
Sly, Nicholas; Soderbery, Anson (2022-01-12)
Although ubiquitous, supply chain challenges are exerting more cost pressures on the types of businessesconcentrated in the Tenth Federal Reserve District. Businesses in the region are less willing or able to adjustthe amount of imported goods they purchase even when procurement prices rise precipitously, as they have over the past year.
Economic Bulletin , Issue January 12, 2022 , Pages 4

Report
How Economic Crises Affect Inflation Beliefs: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic
Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Smith, Kyle; Pomerantz, Rachel; Topa, Giorgio; Armantier, Olivier; Koşar, Gizem; Skandalis, Daphne (2020-11-01)
This paper studies how inflation beliefs reported in the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations have evolved since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that household inflation expectations responded slowly and mostly at the short-term horizon. In contrast, the data reveal immediate and unprecedented increases in individual inflation uncertainty and in inflation disagreement across respondents. We find evidence of a strong polarization in inflation beliefs and we show differences across demographic groups. Finally, we document a strong link, consistent with precautionary ...
Staff Reports , Paper 949

Working Paper
Price dispersion and inflation: new facts and theoretical implications
Sheremirov, Viacheslav (2015-07-01)
From a macroeconomic perspective, price rigidity is often perceived to be an important source of price dispersion, with significant implications for the dynamic properties of aggregate variables, welfare calculations, and the design of optimal policy. For instance, in standard New Keynesian models, the key cost of business cycles stems from the price dispersion resulting from firms' inability to adjust prices instantaneously. However, different macroeconomic models make conflicting predictions about the level of price dispersion, as well as about its dynamic properties and sensitivity to ...
Working Papers , Paper 15-10

Working Paper
Perceptions and Expectations of Inflation by U.S. Households
Axelrod, Sandor; Lebow, David E.; Peneva, Ekaterina V. (2018-10-25)
To better understand inflation expectations, we examine newly available data on U.S. households' inflation perceptions-what people think inflation has been in the past. The overarching summary is that inflation perceptions look similar to inflation expectations. The central tendencies of the responses for perceived inflation over the past five to ten years are similar to those of expected inflation for the next five to ten years, and all are a little above official estimates of inflation. Thus, survey respondents overall do not expect long-term inflation to change in the future relative to ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-073

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