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Working Paper
In the Driver's Seat: Pandemic Fiscal Stimulus and Light Vehicles
Dunbar, Jack; Kurz, Christopher J.; Li, Geng; Tito, Maria D. (2024-03-22)
This paper explores the impact of two fiscal programs, the Economic Impact Payments and the Paycheck Protection Program, on vehicle purchases and relates our findings to post-pandemic price pressures. We find that receiving a stimulus check increased the probability of purchasing new vehicles. In addition, the disbursement of funds from the Paycheck Protection Program was associated with a rise in local new car registrations. Our estimates indicate that these two programs account for a boost of 1 3/4 million unitsâ€”or 12 percentâ€”to new car sales in 2020. Furthermore, the induced ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2024-013

Working Paper
Money, liquidity and welfare
Wen, Yi (2014-02-07)
This paper develops an analytically tractable Bewley model of money demand to shed light on some important questions in monetary theory, such as the welfare cost of inflation. It is shown that when money is a vital form of liquidity to meet uncertain consumption needs, the welfare costs of inflation can be extremely large. With log utility and parameter values that best match both the aggregate money demand curve suggested by Lucas (2000) and the variance of household consumption, agents in our model are willing to reduce consumption by 3% ~ 4% to avoid 10% annual inflation. The astonishingly ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-3

Journal Article
The Phillips Curve during the Pandemic: Bringing Regional Data to Bear
Higgins, Patrick C. (2021-09-09)
The Phillips curve appears to have held up well at the regional level during the COVID-19 era. Areas of the country that took relatively large hits to their unemployment rate and employment-population ratio during the pandemic have had lower inflation, on average, than areas that took relatively small hits. And, just as prior to the pandemic, the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment continues to be statistically stronger for the prices of services than of goods.The Phillips curve appears to have held up well at the regional level during the COVID-19 era. Areas of the ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2021 , Issue 11 , Pages 20

Working Paper
The Causal Effects of Expected Depreciations
Delgado, Martha Elena; Herreño, Juan; Hofstetter, Marc; Pedemonte, Mathieu (2024-03-25)
We estimate the causal effects of a shift in the expected future exchange rate of a local currency against the US dollar on a representative sample of firms in an open economy. We survey a nationally representative sample of firms and provide the one-year-ahead nominal exchange rate forecast published by the local central bank to a random sub-sample of firm managers. The treatment is effective in shifting exchange rate and inflation expectations and perceptions. These effects are persistent and larger for non-exporting firms. Linking survey responses with administrative census data, we find ...
Working Papers , Paper 24-07

Working Paper
Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle
Bianchi, Francesco; Nicolo, Giovanni; Song, Dongho (2023-03)
We study the relation between inflation and real activity over the business cycle. We employ a Trend-Cycle VAR model to control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with what is implied by the New Keynesian framework. We then discuss the reasons for which our results relying on a Trend-Cycle VAR differ from the findings of previous studies based on VAR analysis. We explain empirically and ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2023-038

Journal Article
Price Pressures for U.S. Exporters and a Strong Dollar Have Increased Inflation in Foreign Countries
Matschke, Johannes; Sattiraju, Sai (2022-08-31)
As the higher demand for imported goods during the pandemic has moderated, U.S. export prices have become an important factor in determining inflationary pressures from the United States. As of 2022:Q2, export prices increased by 11.8 percent annualized, far exceeding the historical average of 3.75 percent. Further, 58 percent of the increase in export prices can be attributed to the recent appreciation of the U.S. dollar, while the remaining 42 percent can be attributed to price pressures for U.S. exporters.
Economic Bulletin , Issue August 31, 2022 , Pages 4

Working Paper
Late Payment Fees and Nonpayment in Rental Markets, and Implications for Inflation Measurement: Theoretical Considerations and Evidence
Janson, Wesley; Verbrugge, Randal (2021-04-06)
tatistical agencies track rental expenditures for use in the national accounts and in consumer price indexes (CPIs). As such, statistical agencies should include late payment fees and nonpayment in rent. In the US context, late payment fees are excluded from the CPI. Ostensibly, nonpayment of rent is included in the US CPI; but its treatment is deficient, and we demonstrate that small variations in nonpayment could lead to large swings in shelter inflation, and might have played a role in the 2009 measured shelter inflation collapse. They didn’t: while the national nonpayment incidence is ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-22R

Working Paper
ICT Asset Prices : Marshaling Evidence into New Measures
Byrne, David M.; Corrado, Carol (2017-01-15)
This paper is a companion to our recent paper, "ICT Prices and ICT Services: What do they tell us about Productivity and Technology?" It provides the sources and methods used to construct national accounts-style price deflators for the major components of ICT investment--communications equipment, computer equipment, and software--that were presented and analyzed in that paper. The ICT equipment measures described herein were also used in Byrne, Fernald, and Reinsdorf (2016). This paper is a companion to our recent paper, "ICT Services and their Prices: What do they tell us about ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-016

Working Paper
Macroeconomic Effects of Capital Tax Rate Changes
Bhattarai, Saroj; Lee, Jae Won; Park, Woong Yong; Yang, Choongryul (2022-05-20)
We study aggregate, distributional, and welfare effects of a permanent reduction in the capital tax rate in a quantitative model with capital-skill complementarity and household heterogeneity. Such a tax reform leads to expansionary long-run aggregate output and investment effects, but those are coupled with increases in wage, consumption, and income inequality. The tax reform is not self-financing and its effects depend crucially on whether the government cuts lump-sum transfers or raises distortionary labor or consumption tax rates for financing. The former results in a larger aggregate ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2022-027

Working Paper
The Digital Economy and Productivity
Byrne, David M. (2022-06-17)
After reviewing the state of digitalization---the use of digital information technology (IT) throughout the economy---we consider the slippery concept of a distinct digital economy and efforts to record it in national accounts. We then anchor the digital economy in a growth accounting framework, augmenting the conventional measure of the IT contribution to productivity---innovation in the production of IT capital plus labor-saving use of IT throughout the economy---with the contribution from the digital platforms that help users navigate the sprawling information landscape. We discuss the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2022-038

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