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Working Paper
Determinants of Differential Rent Changes: Mean Reversion versus the Usual Suspects
Verbrugge, Randal; Poole, Robert; Marsh, Fred; Dorfman, Alan; Shoemaker, Owen; Johnson, William (2015-08-05)
We study 2001-2004 and 2004-2007 rent growth of 18,000 rental units, ending our study prior to the Great Recession. Which variables correlate with rent growth: Location? Age? Rent level? Occupancy duration? Structure type? The answers deepen understanding of the rental market, help statistical agencies make decisions about sample stratification and substitution, and expose coverage problems. We document significant rent stickiness. Initial relative rent level is the best predictor, though mainly due to mean reversion. "Location" comes in second, though often not statistically significantly: ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1511

Working Paper
A Comparison of Fed "Tightening" Episodes since the 1980s
Kliesen, Kevin L. (2020-01-30)
Deciding to undertake a series of tightening actions present unique challenges for Federal Reserve policymakers. These challenges are both political and economic. Using a variety of economic and financial market metrics, this article examines how the economy and financial markets evolved in response to the five tightening episodes enacted by the FOMC since 1983. The primary aim is to compare the most-recent episode, from December 2015 to December 2018, with the previous four episodes. The findings in this article indicate that the current episode bears some resemblance to previous Fed ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-003

Journal Article
Does Intra-Firm Bargaining Matter for Business Cycle Dynamics?
Lubik, Thomas A.; Krause, Michael U. (2013-07)
We analyze the implications of intra-firm bargaining for business cycle dynamics in models with large firms and search frictions. Intra-firm bargaining implies a feedback from the marginal revenue product to wage setting, which leads firms to over-hire in order to reduce workers' bargaining position within the firm. The keys to this effect are decreasing returns and/or downward-sloping demand. We show that equilibrium wages and employment are higher in steady state compared with a bargaining framework in which firms neglect this feedback effect. However, the effects of intra-firm bargaining ...
Economic Quarterly , Issue 3Q , Pages 229-250

Working Paper
Mortgage Borrowing and the Boom-Bust Cycle in Consumption and Residential Investment
Zhou, Xiaoqing (2021-03-24)
This paper studies the transmission of the major shocks in the U.S. housing market in the 2000s to consumption and residential investment. Using geographically disaggregated data, I show that residential investment is more responsive to these shocks than consumption, as measured by elasticities and the implied contributions to GDP growth. I develop a structural life-cycle model featuring multiple types of housing investment to understand the large responses of residential investment. Consistent with the microdata, the model generates lumpy debt accumulation, lumpy housing investment and a ...
Working Papers , Paper 2103

Working Paper
Understanding Bank and Nonbank Credit Cycles: A Structural Exploration
Zhong, Molin; Durdu, Ceyhun Bora (2019-05-03)
We explore the structural drivers of bank and nonbank credit cycles using an estimated medium-scale macro model that allows for bank and nonbank financial intermediation. We posit economy-wide aggregate and sectoral disturbances to potentially drive bank and nonbank credit growth. We find that sectoral shocks affecting the balance sheets of entrepreneurs who borrow from the financial sector are important for the business cycle frequency fluctuations in bank and nonbank credit growth. Economy-wide entrepreneurial risk shocks gain predominance for explaining the longer-horizon comovement ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-031

Working Paper
Searching for Hysteresis
Lubik, Thomas A.; Benati, Luca (2021-02-01)
We search for the presence of hysteresis, which we dene as aggregate demand shocks that have a permanent impact on real GDP, in the U.S., the Euro Area, and the U.K. Working with cointegrated structural VARs, we nd essentially no evidence of such effects. Within a Classical statistical framework, it is virtually impossible to detect such shocks. Within a Bayesian context, the presence of these shocks can be mechanically imposed upon the data. However, unless a researcher is willing to impose the restriction that the sign of their long-run impact on GDP is the same for all draws, which amounts ...
Working Paper , Paper 21-03

Discussion Paper
Black and White Differences in the Labor Market Recovery from COVID-19
Karahan, Fatih; Pilossoph, Laura (2021-02-09)
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the various measures put in place to contain it caused a rapid deterioration in labor market conditions for many workers and plunged the nation into recession. The unemployment rate increased dramatically during the COVID recession, rising from 3.5 percent in February to 14.8 percent in April, accompanied by an almost three percentage point decline in labor force participation. While the subsequent labor market recovery in the aggregate has exceeded even some of the most optimistic scenarios put forth soon after this dramatic rise, the recovery has been ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210209c

Working Paper
How Does the Strength of Monetary Policy Transmission Depend on Real Economic Activity?
Temesvary, Judit; Sapriza, Horacio (2019-04-08)
We study the relationship between the strength of the bank credit channel (BCC) of monetary policy and real GDP growth in the United States using quarterly commercial bank level data between 1986 and 2008. We find that the BCC was significantly stronger during periods of low economic growth. Monetary policy is more effective through this channel in spurring economic activity during periods of low growth, rather than in cooling the economy when growth is high. Furthermore, we find that the BCC operated through a broader range of loan categories and banks than previously documented, ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-023

Working Paper
Managing Capital Flows in the Presence of External Risks
Tenorio, Gabriel; Reyes-Heroles, Ricardo M. (2017-09)
We introduce external risks, in the form of shocks to the level and volatility of world interest rates, into a small open economy model subject to the risk of sudden stops?large recessions together with abrupt reversals in capital inflows| and characterize optimal macroprudential policy in response to these shocks. In the model, collateral constraints create a pecuniary externality that leads to "overborrowing" and sudden stops that arise when the constraints bind. The typical sudden stop generated by the model replicates existing empirical evidence for emerging market economies: Low and ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1213

Working Paper
Globalisation, domestic inflation and the global output gaps: evidence from the Euro era
Calza, Alessandro (2008)
This paper tests whether the proposition that globalisation has led to greater sensitivity of domestic inflation to the global output gap (the "global output gap hypothesis") holds for the euro area. The empirical analysis uses quarterly data over the period 1979?2003. Measures of the global output gap using two different weighting schemes (based on PPPs and trade data) are considered. We find little evidence that global capacity constraints have either explanatory or predictive power for domestic consumer price inflation in the euro area. Based on these findings, the prescription that ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 13

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