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Jel Classification:E23 

Working Paper
The Aggregate Implications of Size Dependent Distortions

This paper examines the aggregate implications of size-dependent distortions. These regulations misallocate labor across firms and hence reduce aggregate productivity. It then considers a case-study of labor laws in France where firms that have 50 employees or more face substantially more regulation than firms that have less than 50. The size distribution of firms is visibly distorted by these regulations: there are many firms with exactly 49 employees. A quantitative model is developed with a payroll tax of 0.15% that only applies to firm above 50 employees. Removing the regulation improves ...
Working Papers , Paper 2016-24

Working Paper
Financial Integration and Monetary Policy Coordination

Financial integration generates macroeconomic spillovers that may require international monetary policy coordination. We show that individual central banks may set nominal interest rates too low or too high relative to the cooperative outcome. We identify three sufficient statistics that determine whether the Nash equilibrium exhibits under-tightening or over-tightening: the output gap, sectoral differences in labor intensity, and the trade balance response to changes in nominal rates. Independently of the shocks hitting the economy, we find that under-tightening is possible during economic ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 802

Report
Newer need not be better: evaluating the Penn World Tables and the World Development Indicators using nighttime lights

Nighttime lights data are a measure of economic activity whose measurement error is plausibly independent of the errors of most conventional indicators. Therefore, we can use nighttime lights as an independent benchmark to assess existing measures of economic activity (Pinkovskiy and Sala-i-Martin 2016). We employ this insight to find out which vintages of the Penn World Tables (PWT) and of the World Development Indicators (WDI) better estimate true income per capita. We find that revisions of the PWT do not necessarily dominate their predecessors in terms of explaining nighttime lights (and ...
Staff Reports , Paper 778

Journal Article
Industrial production and capacity utilization: the 2004 annual revision

In late 2004, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve issued revisions to its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization for the period from January 1972 to November 2004. Overall, the changes to total industrial production were small. ; Measured from the fourth quarter of 2002 to the third quarter of 2004, industrial output is reported to have increased a little less than shown previously. Production expanded more slowly in 2000 than earlier estimates indicated, whereas the contraction in 2001 was a little less steep. The rise in ...
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 91 , Issue Win

Working Paper
Oil Curse, Economic Growth and Trade Openness

An important economic paradox that frequently arises in the economic literature is that countries with abundant natural resources are poor in terms of real gross domestic product per capita. This paradox, known as the ?resource curse,? is contrary to the conventional intuition that natural resources help to improve economic growth and prosperity. Using panel data for 95 countries, this study revisits the resource curse paradox in terms of oil resource abundance for the period 1980?2017. In addition, the study examines the role of trade openness in influencing the relationship between oil ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 370

Working Paper
Extreme Weather and the Macroeconomy

Working Paper , Paper 21-14

Working Paper
Productivity in the World Economy During and After the Pandemic

This paper reviews how productivity has evolved around the world since the pandemic began in 2020. Productivity in many countries has been volatile. We conclude that the broad contours of productivity growth during this period have been heavily shaped by predictable cyclical patterns. Looking at U.S. industry data, we find little evidence that the sharp rise in telework has had a notable impact, good or bad, on productivity. Stepping back, the data so far appear consistent with a continuation of the slow-productivity-growth trajectory that we faced before the pandemic.
Working Paper Series , Paper 2023-29

Journal Article
Industrial production and capacity utilization: the 2006 annual revision

On December 11, 2006, the Federal Reserve published revisions to its index of industrial production and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization. The revision affected the data from 1972 through October 2006, but the largest changes were for the period beginning in 2003. From the fourth quarter of 2002 to the third quarter of 2006, industrial production, as revised, increased about 13/4 percentage points less than previously reported. By year, the change in output was revised down a little for 2003, down substantially for 2004, up a little for 2005, and down a touch for 2006. ...
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 93 , Issue May

Working Paper
Productivity and Potential Output Before, During, and After the Great Recession

U.S. labor and total-factor productivity growth slowed prior to the Great Recession. The timing rules explanations that focus on disruptions during or since the recession, and industry and state data rule out ?bubble economy? stories related to housing or finance. The slowdown is located in industries that produce information technology (IT) or that use IT intensively, consistent with a return to normal productivity growth after nearly a decade of exceptional IT-fueled gains. A calibrated growth model suggests trend productivity growth has returned close to its 1973-1995 pace. Slower ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2014-15

Working Paper
Does Disappointing European Productivity Growth Reflect a Slowing Trend? Weighing the Evidence and Assessing the Future

In the years since the Great Recession, many observers have highlighted the slow pace of labor and total factor productivity (TFP) growth in advanced economies. This paper focuses on the European experience, where we highlight that trend TFP growth was already low in the runup to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). This suggests that it is important to consider factors other than just the deep crisis itself or policy changes since the crisis. After the mid-1990s, European economies stopped converging, or even began diverging, from the U.S. level of TFP. That said, in contrast to the United ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-22

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