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Working Paper
The Stable Transformation Path
Buera, Francisco J.; Mestieri, Martí; O'Connor, Daniel G.; Kaboski, Joseph P. (2020-10-23)
Standard dynamic models of structural transformation, without knife-edge and counterfactual parameter values, preclude balanced growth path (BGP) analysis. This paper develops a dynamic equilibrium concept for a more general class of models | an alternative to a BGP, which we coin a Stable Transformation Path (STraP). The STraP characterizes the medium-term dynamics of the economy in a turnpike sense; it is the path toward which the economy (quickly) converges from an arbitrary initial capital stock. Calibrated simulations demonstrate that the relaxed parameter values that the STraP allows ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-23

Working Paper
COVID-19 Is a Persistent Reallocation Shock
Meyer, Brent; Davis, Steven J.; Bloom, Nicholas; Barrero, Jose Maria (2021-01-15)
Drawing on data from the firm-level Survey of Business Uncertainty, we present three pieces of evidence that COVID-19 is a persistent reallocation shock. First, rates of excess job and sales reallocation over 24-month periods have risen sharply since the pandemic struck, especially for sales. We compute these rates by aggregating over monthly firm-level observations that look back 12 months and ahead 12 months. Second, as of December 2020, firm-level forecasts of sales revenue growth over the next year imply a continuation of recent changes, not a reversal. Third, COVID-19 shifted relative ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2021-3

Journal Article
Industrial production and capacity utilization: the 2005 annual revision
Gilbert, Charles; Bayard, Kimberly (2006-03)
On November 7, 2005, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System issued revisions to its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization for the period from January 1972 through September 2005. For this period, both the levels and the rates of change were revised. For years before 1972, the levels, but not the rates of change, were also revised. Overall, the changes to total industrial production were small. ; Besides the revisions to the monthly data for IP and capacity utilization starting in 1972, the comparison base year for all ...
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 92 , Issue Mar , Pages A39-A58

Working Paper
The great housing boom of China
Wen, Yi; Chen, Kaiji (2015-11-01)
China's housing prices have been growing nearly twice as fast as national income in the past decade despite (1) a phenomenal rate of return to capital and (2) an alarmingly high vacancy rate. This paper interprets such a prolonged paradoxical housing boom as a rational bubble that emerges naturally from China's large-scale economic transition, featuring an exceptionally high rate of return to capital driven by massive resource reallocation. Because such primarily resource-reallocation-driven high capital returns are not sustainable in the long run, expectations of high future demand for ...
FRB Atlanta CQER Working Paper , Paper 2015-3

Working Paper
Capital-Task Complementarity and the Decline of the U.S. Labor Share of Income
Orak, Musa (2017-03)
This paper provides evidence that shifts in the occupational composition of the U.S. workforce are the most important factor explaining the trend decline in the labor share over the past four decades. Estimates suggest that while there is unitary elasticity between equipment capital and non-routine tasks, equipment capital and routine tasks are highly substitutable. Through the lenses of a general equilibrium model with occupational choice and the estimated production technology, I document that the fall in relative price of equipment capital alone can explain 72 percent of the observed ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1200

Working Paper
Adaptation and the Cost of Rising Temperature for the U.S. economy
Gourio, Francois; Fries, Charles (2020-03-05)
How costly will rising temperature due to climate change be for the U.S. economy? Recent research has used the well-identified response of output to weather to estimate this cost. But agents may adapt to the new climate. We propose a methodology to infer adaptation technology from the heterogeneous responses of output to weather observed currently across the U.S. Our model estimates how much each region has adapted already, and can predict how much each will adapt further after climate change. The size and distribution of losses from climate change vary substantially once adaptation is taken ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-08

Working Paper
The pre-Great Recession slowdown in productivity
Cette, Gilbert; Fernald, John G.; Mojon, Benoit (2016-03-28)
In the years since the Great Recession, many observers have highlighted the slow pace of productivity growth around the world. For the United States and Europe, we highlight that this slow pace began prior to the Great Recession. The timing thus suggests that it is important to consider factors other than just the deep crisis itself or policy changes since the crisis. For the United States, at the frontier of knowledge, there was a burst of innovation and reallocation related to the production and use of information technology in the second half of the 1990s and the early 2000s. That burst ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2016-8

Working Paper
Does Disappointing European Productivity Growth Reflect a Slowing Trend? Weighing the Evidence and Assessing the Future
Inklaar, Robert; Fernald, John G. (2020-06-12)
In the years since the Great Recession, many observers have highlighted the slow pace of labor and total factor productivity (TFP) growth in advanced economies. This paper focuses on the European experience, where we highlight that trend TFP growth was already low in the runup to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). This suggests that it is important to consider factors other than just the deep crisis itself or policy changes since the crisis. After the mid-1990s, European economies stopped converging, or even began diverging, from the U.S. level of TFP. That said, in contrast to the United ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-22

Working Paper
Leverage over the Firm Life Cycle, Firm Growth, and Aggregate Fluctuations
Hyatt, Henry; Penciakova, Veronika; Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem; Dinlersoz, Emin M. (2019-11-01)
We study the leverage of U.S. firms over their life cycles and the connection between firm leverage, firm growth, and aggregate shocks. We construct a new dataset that combines private and public firms' balance sheets with firm-level data from U.S. Census Bureau's Longitudinal Business Database for the period 2005-12. Public and private firms exhibit different leverage dynamics over their life cycles. Firm age and size are systematically related to leverage for private firms but not for public firms. We show that private firms, but not public ones, deleveraged during the Great Recession and ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2019-18

Report
Productivity in the slow lane?: the role of information and communications technology
Pearson, Alison; Wang, J. Christina (2014-12-22)
As the current recovery matures in the United States, evidence is mounting that total factor productivity (TFP), the typical measure of technological change, has moved back into the slow lane. This study uses industry data to explore the extent to which the acceleration in TFP in the late 1990s and early 2000s and the subsequent deceleration are attributable to unmeasured investment by firms to take full advantage of the new capabilities made possible by information and communications technology (ICT).
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 14-10

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