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Journal Article
Optimal Ramsey Capital Taxation with Endogenous Government Spending
Lee, Junsang; Chien, YiLi (2016)
The authors study optimal capital income taxation in heterogeneous agent economies featuring endogenous government spending. Similar to Aiyagari (1995), they find that the long-run optimal capital tax rate should not be zero as long as the competitive equilibrium risk-free interest rate differs from the subjective time discount rate. The authors first argue that this result holds in a wide range of economic environments and is not limited to only the standard incomplete market model with heterogeneous agents. As an example, a decentralized economy with limited commitment is considered. ...
Review , Volume 98 , Issue 4 , Pages 311-327

Working Paper
Firm Entry and Exit and Aggregate Growth
Asturias, Jose; Hur, Sewon; Ruhl, Kim J.; Kehoe, Timothy J. (2020-06-16)
Applying the Foster, Haltiwanger, and Krizan (FHK) (2001) decomposition to plant-level manufacturing data from Chile and Korea, we find that the entry and exit of plants account for a larger fraction of aggregate productivity growth during periods of fast GDP growth. Studies of other countries confirm this empirical relationship. To analyze this relationship, we develop a simple model of firm entry and exit based on Hopenhayn (1992) in which there are analytical expressions for the FHK decomposition. When we introduce reforms that reduce entry costs or reduce barriers to technology adoption ...
Working Papers , Paper 201903R

Working Paper
ICT Services and their Prices: What do they tell us about Productivity and Technology?
Corrado, Carol; Byrne, David M. (2017-02-10)
This paper reassesses the link between ICT prices, technology, and productivity. To understand how the ICT sector could come to the rescue of a whole economy, we extend a multi-sector model due to Oulton (2012) to include ICT services (e.g., cloud services) and use it to calibrate the steady-state contribution of the ICT sector to growth in aggregate U.S. labor productivity. Because ICT technologies diffuse through the economy increasingly via purchases of cloud and data analytic services that are not fully accounted for in the standard narrative on ICT's contribution to economic growth, the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-015

Report
Online Appendix: Sweat Equity in U.S. Private Business
Bhandari, Anmol; McGrattan, Ellen R. (2020-08-28)
Staff Report , Paper 612

Working Paper
Emerging Markets and the New Geography of Trade: The Effects of Rising Trade Barriers
Reyes-Heroles, Ricardo M.; Trailberman, Sharon; Van Leemput, Eva (2020-05-07)
Protectionist sentiments have been rising globally in recent years. The consequences of a surge in protectionist measures present policy challenges for emerging markets (EMs), which have become increasingly exposed to global trade. This paper serves two main purposes. First, we collect several stylized facts that characterize EMs' role in the new geography of trade. We focus on differences between advanced economies (AEs) and EMs in trade linkages, production structures, and factor supplies. Second, we build a dynamic, general equilibrium, quantitative trade model featuring multiple ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1278

Working Paper
What Drives Inventory Accumulation? News on Rates of Return and Marginal Costs
Gortz, Christoph; Gunn, Christopher; Lubik, Thomas A. (2019-10-10)
We study the effects of news shocks on inventory accumulation in a structural VAR framework. We establish that inventories react strongly and positively to news about future increases in total factor productivity. Theory suggests that the transmission channel of news shocks to inventories works through movements in marginal costs, through movements in sales, or through interest rates. We provide evidence that changes in external and internal rates of return are central to the transmission for such news shocks. We do not find evidence of a strong substitution effect that shifts production from ...
Working Paper , Paper 19-18

Working Paper
What Do Survey Data Tell Us about US Businesses?
Bhandari, Anmol; Birinci, Serdar; McGrattan, Ellen R.; See, Kurt (2019-07)
This paper examines the reliability of survey data on business incomes, valuations, and rates of return, which are key inputs for studies of wealth inequality and entrepreneurial choice. We compare survey responses of business owners with available data from administrative tax records, brokered private business sales, and publicly traded company filings and document problems due to nonrepresentative samples and measurement errors across all surveys, subsamples, and years. We find that the discrepancies are economically relevant for the statistics of interest. We investigate reasons for these ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-021

Working Paper
Why has the cyclicality of productivity changed? What does it mean?
Wang, J. Christina; Fernald, John G. (2016-04-01)
U.S. labor and total factor productivity have historically been procyclical?rising in booms and falling in recessions. After the mid-1980s, however, TFP became much less procyclical with respect to hours while labor productivity turned strongly countercyclical. We find that the key empirical ?fact? driving these changes is reduced variation in factor utilization?conceptually, the workweek of capital and labor effort. We discuss a range of theories that seek to explain the changes in productivity?s cyclicality. Increased flexibility, changes in the structure of the economy, and shifts in ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2016-7

Working Paper
The Inverted Leading Indicator Property and Redistribution Effect of the Interest Rate
Pintus, Patrick A.; Wen, Yi; Xing, Xiaochuan (2016-11-30)
The interest rate at which US firms borrow funds has two features: (i) it moves in a countercyclical fashion and (ii) it is an inverted leading indicator of real economic activity: low interest rates today forecast future booms in GDP, consumption, investment, and employment. We show that a Kiyotaki-Moore model accounts for both properties when interest-rate movements are driven, in a significant way, by self-fulfilling shocks that redistribute income away from lenders and to borrowers during booms. The credit-based nature of such self-fulfilling equilibria is shown to be essential: the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2016-27

Journal Article
Industrial production and capacity utilization: the 2001 annual revision
Morin, Norman J.; Corrado, Carol; Gilbert, Charles (2002-03)
In late 2001, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System published the annual revision of its index of industrial production and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization for the period January 1992 to October 2001. The updated measures reflect the incorporation of newly available, more-comprehensive source data and the introduction of improved methods for compiling a few series. ; Measured fourth quarter to fourth quarter, increases in rates of industrial output and capacity have been revised downward from rates previously reported for 1999 and 2000. The revision ...
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 88 , Issue Mar , Pages 173-187

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