Search Results
Working Paper
Mechanics of Linear Quadratic Gaussian Rational Inattention Tracking Problems
Fulton, Chad
(2017-11-03)
This paper presents a general framework for constructing and solving the multivariate static linear quadratic Gaussian (LQG) rational inattention tracking problem. We interpret the nature of the solution and the implied action of the agent, and we construct representations that formalize how the agent processes data. We apply this infrastructure to the rational inattention price-setting problem, confirming the result that a conditional response to economics shocks is possible, but casting doubt on a common assumption made in the literature. We show that multiple equilibria and a social cost ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2017-109
Report
Anxiety in the face of risk
Eisenbach, Thomas M.; Schmalz, Martin C.
(2013)
We model an ?anxious? agent as one who is more risk averse with respect to imminent risks than with respect to distant risks. Based on a utility function that captures individual subjects? behavior in experiments, we provide a tractable theory relaxing the restriction of constant risk aversion across horizons and show that it generates rich implications. We first apply the model to insurance markets and explain the high premia for short-horizon insurance. Then, we show that costly delegated portfolio management, investment advice, and withdrawal fees emerge as endogenous features and ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 610
Working Paper
Countercyclical Fluctuations in Uncertainty are Endogenous
Bernstein, Joshua; Plante, Michael D.; Richter, Alexander W.; Throckmorton, Nathaniel A.
(2021-07-02)
This paper uses a battery of calibrated and estimated structural models to determine the causal drivers of the negative correlation between output and aggregate uncertainty. We find the transmission of uncertainty shocks to output is weak, while aggregate uncertainty endogenously responds to first moment shocks in the presence of labor market search frictions. This indicates that countercyclical movements in aggregate uncertainty are endogenous responses to changes in output, rather than exogenous impulses. A vector autoregression on simulated data shows recursive identification techniques do ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2109
Working Paper
Does Smooth Ambiguity Matter for Asset Pricing?
Gallant, A. Ronald; Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad; Liu, Hening
(2018-01)
We use the Bayesian method introduced by Gallant and McCulloch (2009) to estimate consumption-based asset pricing models featuring smooth ambiguity preferences. We rely on semi-nonparametric estimation of a flexible auxiliary model in our structural estimation. Based on the market and aggregate consumption data, our estimation provides statistical support for asset pricing models with smooth ambiguity. Statistical model comparison shows that models with ambiguity, learning and time-varying volatility are preferred to the long-run risk model. We analyze asset pricing implications of the ...
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 1221
Working Paper
Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand: Comment
Throckmorton, Nathaniel A.; Richter, Alexander W.; de Groot, Oliver
(2017-05-19)
Basu and Bundick (2017) show a second moment intertemporal preference shock creates meaningful declines in output in a sticky price model with Epstein and Zin (1991) preferences. The result, however, rests on the way they model the shock. If a preference shock is included in Epstein-Zin preferences, the distributional weights on current and future utility must sum to 1, otherwise it creates an asymptote in the response to the shock with unit intertemporal elasticity of substitution. When we change the preferences so the weights sum to 1, the asymptote disappears as well as their main ...
Working Papers
, Paper 1706
Working Paper
Lottery Loans in the Eighteenth Century
Velde, Francois R.
(2018-05-12)
In the 18th century Britain frequently issued lottery loans, selling bonds whose size was determined by a draw soon after the sale. The probability distribution was perfectly known ex-ante and highly skewed. After the draw the bonds were identical (except for size) and indistinguishable from regular bonds. I collect market prices for the lottery tickets and show that investors were paying a substantial premium to be exposed to this purely artificial risk. I show that investors were well-to-do and included many merchants and bankers. I turn to cumulative prospect theory to make sense of these ...
Working Paper Series
, Paper WP-2018-7
Report
Barriers to household risk management: evidence from India
Cole, Shawn; Gine, Xavier; Tobacman, Jeremy; Vickery, James; Townsend, Robert M.; Topalova, Petia
(2009-05-01)
Financial engineering offers the potential to significantly reduce the consumption fluctuations faced by individuals, households, and firms. Yet much of this potential remains unfulfilled. This paper studies the adoption of an innovative rainfall insurance product designed to compensate low-income Indian farmers in the event of insufficient rainfall during the primary monsoon season. We first document relatively low adoption of this new risk management product: Only 5-10 percent of households purchase the insurance, even though they overwhelmingly cite rainfall variability as their most ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 373
Working Paper
Appraising Home Purchase Appraisals
Lambie-Hanson, Lauren; Nakamura, Leonard I.; Calem, Paul S.
(2017-07-31)
Home appraisals are produced for millions of residential mortgage transactions each year, but appraised values are rarely below the purchase contract price. We argue that institutional features of home mortgage lending cause much of the information in appraisals to be lost: some 30 percent of recent appraisals are exactly at the home price (with less than 10 percent below it). We lay out a novel, basic theoretical framework to explain how lenders? and appraisers? incentives lead to information loss in appraisals (that is, appraisals set equal to the contract price). Such information loss is ...
Working Papers
, Paper 17-23
Working Paper
Rational Inattention via Ignorance Equivalence
Müller-Itten, Michèle; Stangebye, Zachary; Armenter, Roc
(2020-06-22)
We present a novel approach to finite Rational Inattention (RI) models based on the ignorance equivalent, a fictitious action with state-dependent payoffs that effectively summarizes the optimal learning and conditional choices. The ignorance equivalent allows us to recast the RI problem as a standard expected utility maximization over an augmented choice set called the learning-proof menu, yielding new insights regarding the behavioral implications of RI, in particular as new actions are added to the menu. Our geometric approach is also well suited to numerical methods, outperforming ...
Working Papers
, Paper 20-24
Working Paper
Ambiguity Aversion and Variance Premium
Zhou, Hao; Wei, Bin; Miao, Jianjun
(2018-12-01)
This paper offers an ambiguity-based interpretation of variance premium?the difference between risk-neutral and objective expectations of market return variance?as a compounding effect of both belief distortion and variance differential regarding the uncertain economic regimes. Our approach endogenously generates variance premium without imposing exogenous stochastic volatility or jumps in consumption process. Such a framework can reasonably match the mean variance premium as well as the mean equity premium, equity volatility, and the mean risk-free rate in the data. We find that about 96 ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 2018-14
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