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Working Paper
Are Supply Networks Efficiently Resilient?
Capponi, Agostino; Du, Chuan; Stiglitz, Joseph E. (2024-05-28)
We show that supply networks are inefficiently, and insufficiently, resilient. Upstream firms can expand their production capacity to hedge againstsupply and demand shocks. But the social benefits of such investments arenot internalized due to market power and market incompleteness. Upstreamfirms under-invest in capacity and resilience, passing-on the costs to downstreamfirms, and drive trade excessively towards the spot markets. There isa wedge between the market solution and a constrained optimal benchmark,which persists even without rare and large shocks. Policies designed to incentivize ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2024-031

Working Paper
The pre-Great Recession slowdown in productivity
Cette, Gilbert; Fernald, John G.; Mojon, Benoit (2016-03-28)
In the years since the Great Recession, many observers have highlighted the slow pace of productivity growth around the world. For the United States and Europe, we highlight that this slow pace began prior to the Great Recession. The timing thus suggests that it is important to consider factors other than just the deep crisis itself or policy changes since the crisis. For the United States, at the frontier of knowledge, there was a burst of innovation and reallocation related to the production and use of information technology in the second half of the 1990s and the early 2000s. That burst ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2016-8

Working Paper
Does Disappointing European Productivity Growth Reflect a Slowing Trend? Weighing the Evidence and Assessing the Future
Inklaar, Robert; Fernald, John G. (2020-06-12)
In the years since the Great Recession, many observers have highlighted the slow pace of labor and total factor productivity (TFP) growth in advanced economies. This paper focuses on the European experience, where we highlight that trend TFP growth was already low in the runup to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). This suggests that it is important to consider factors other than just the deep crisis itself or policy changes since the crisis. After the mid-1990s, European economies stopped converging, or even began diverging, from the U.S. level of TFP. That said, in contrast to the United ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-22

Working Paper
Disclosure Regulation, Intangible Capital and the Disappearance of Public Firms
Casella, Sara; Lee, Hanbaek; Villalvazo, Sergio (2023-06-30)
Since the mid-1990s, the number of listed firms in the U.S. has halved, and their public disclosure has become opaquer. To explain these trends, we develop a general equilibrium model where the choices of going public or private and the transparency of voluntary disclosure are characterized analytically. In the equilibrium, the stock market with directed search and the private equity market with random search co-exist. According to the estimation, stricter disclosure regulation and increased intangible capital share are the key drivers of the observed patterns. Lastly, we characterize a ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2023-050

Working Paper
Committing to Grow: Privatizations and Firm Dynamics in East Germany
Akcigit, Ufuk; Alp, Harun; Diegmann, André; Serrano-Velarde, Nicolas (2023-11-07)
This paper investigates a unique policy designed to maintain employment during the privatization of East German firms after the fall of the Iron Curtain. The policy required new owners of the firms to commit to employment targets, with penalties for non-compliance. Using a dynamic model, we highlight three channels through which employment targets impact firms: distorted employment decisions, increased productivity, and higher exit rates. Our empirical analysis, using a novel dataset and instrumental variable approach, confirms these findings. We estimate a 22% points higher annual employment ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1382

Working Paper
Misallocation, informality, and human capital: understanding the role of institutions
Senkal, Asli; D'Erasmo, Pablo; Moscoso Boedo, Herman J. (2014-03-24)
Accepted for publication, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control The aim of this paper is to quantify the role of formal-sector institutions in shaping the demand for human capital and the level of informality. We propose a firm dynamics model where firms face capital market imperfections and costs of operating in the formal sector. Formal firms have a larger set of production opportunities and the ability to employ skilled workers, but informal firms can avoid the costs of formalization. These firm-level distortions give rise to endogenous formal and informal sectors and, more importantly, ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-11

Working Paper
Heterogeneous exporters: quantitative differences and qualitative similarities
Diez, Federico J.; Gonzalez, Alejandra; Casas, Camila (2017-01-13)
We combine two detailed datasets on Colombian manufacturing firms and document several stylized facts on exporter heterogeneity of total factor productivity (TFP) and export-market orientation, refining some previously known facts and unveiling some new others. We first show that the exporter productivity premium is remarkably robust across the methodologies used to recover TFP. We then document that the most productive exporters are those that export (1) a higher share of their total production, (2) to a larger number of countries, (3) to destinations less frequently reached by other ...
Working Papers , Paper 16-26

Working Paper
The Economic Effects of Firm-Level Uncertainty: Evidence Using Subjective Expectations
Fiori, Giuseppe; Scoccianti, Filippo (2021-06-28)
This paper uses over two decades of Italian survey data on business managers' expectations to measure subjective firm-level uncertainty and quantify its economic effects. We document that firm-level uncertainty persists for a few years and varies across firms' demographic characteristics. Uncertainty induces long-lasting economic effects over a broad array of real and financial variables. The source of uncertainty matters with firms responding only to downside uncertainty, that is, uncertainty about future adverse outcomes. Economy-wide uncertainty, constructed aggregating firm-level ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1320

Working Paper
Tax Heterogeneity and Misallocation
Kaymak, Barış; Schott, Immo (2023-12-19)
Companies face different effective marginal tax rates on their income. This can be detrimental to allocative efficiency unless taxes offset other distortions in the economy. This paper estimates the effect of tax rate heterogeneity on aggregate productivity in distorted economies with multiple frictions. Using firm-level balance-sheet data and estimates of marginal tax rates, we find that tax heterogeneity reduces total factor productivity by about 3 percent. Our findings highlight the positive correlation between marginal tax rates and other distortions to capital and especially labor. This ...
Working Papers , Paper 23-33

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