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Discussion Paper
Charging into Adulthood: Credit Cards and Young Consumers
Haughwout, Andrew F.; Lee, Donghoon; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2020-02-11)
The New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for the fourth quarter of 2019. Total household debt balances grew by $193 billion in the fourth quarter, marking a $601 billion increase in household debt balances in 2019, the largest annual gain since 2007. The main driver was a $433 billion annual upswing in mortgage balances, also the largest since 2007. Auto loan and credit card balances both increased by a brisk $57 billion last year, while student loan balances climbed by a more muted $51 billion, well below the $114 ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200211

Discussion Paper
How Widespread Is the Impact of the COVID-19 Outbreak on Consumer Expectations?
Armantier, Olivier; Smith, Kyle; Pomerantz, Rachel; Koşar, Gizem; Skandalis, Daphne; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Topa, Giorgio (2020-04-16)
In a recent blog post, we showed that consumer expectations worsened sharply through March, as the COVID-19 epidemic spread and affected a growing part of the U.S. population. In this post, we document how much of this deterioration can be directly attributed to the coronavirus outbreak. We then explore how the effect of the outbreak has varied over time and across demographic groups.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200416b

Discussion Paper
U.S. Consumer Debt Payments and Credit Buffers on the Eve of COVID-19
Lee, Donghoon; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Scally, Joelle; Haughwout, Andrew F. (2020-05-05)
Today, the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data released the Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for 2020:Q1. Because consumer debt servicing statements are typically furnished to credit bureaus only once during every statement period, our snapshot of consumer credit reports as of March 31, 2020 is, in effect, largely a pre‑COVID‑19 view of the consumer balance sheet. While significant indications of the pandemic are yet to appear in our Consumer Credit Panel (CCP—the data source for the Quarterly Report, based on anonymized Equifax credit reports), we are able to ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200505

Discussion Paper
Amid the COVID-19 Outbreak, Consumers Temper Spending Outlook
Koşar, Gizem; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Smith, Kyle (2020-05-07)
The New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data released results today from its April 2020 SCE Household Spending Survey, which provides information on consumers' experiences and expectations regarding household spending. These data have been collected every four months since December 2014 as part of our Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). Given the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak, the April survey, which was fielded between April 2 and 30, unsurprisingly shows a number of sharp changes in consumers’ spending behavior and outlook, which we review in this post.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200507b

Speech
Student debt and higher education financing: a public finance perspective
McAndrews, James J. (2015-02-05)
Remarks at the National Association of College and University Business Officers, at the Waldorf Astoria, New York City.
Speech , Paper 155

Report
Defining and detecting predatory lending
Morgan, Donald P. (2007)
Staff Report no. 273 has been removed at the request of the author. See links to related papers.
Staff Reports , Paper 273

Report
Tuition, jobs, or housing: what's keeping millennials at home?
Bleemer, Zachary; Brown, Meta; Lee, Donghoon; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2014-11-01)
This paper documents marked changes in young Americans? residence choices over the past fifteen years, with recent cohorts delaying homeownership and lingering much longer in parents? households. To understand the sources and implications of this decline in independence, we estimate the contributions of local economic circumstances to the decision to live with parents or independently. Transition models, local aggregates, and state-cohort tuition patterns are used to address the likely presence of individual- and neighborhood-level unobserved heterogeneity. Employment and housing market ...
Staff Reports , Paper 700

Report
What would you do with $500? Spending responses to gains, losses, news, and loans
Fuster, Andreas; Kaplan, Greg; Zafar, Basit (2018-03-01)
We use survey questions about spending to investigate features of propensities to consume that are useful for distinguishing between consumption theories. Asking households about their intended spending under various scenarios, we find that 1) responses to unanticipated gains are vastly heterogeneous (either zero or substantially positive), 2) responses to losses are much larger and more widespread than responses to gains, and 3) even those with large responses to gains do not respond to news about future gains. These three findings suggest that limited access to disposable resources is an ...
Staff Reports , Paper 843

Report
How do mortgage refinances affect debt, default, and spending? Evidence from HARP
Abel, Joshua; Fuster, Andreas (2018-02-01)
We use quasi-random access to the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) to identify the causal effect of refinancing a mortgage on borrower balance sheet outcomes. We find that on average, refinancing into a lower-rate mortgage reduced borrowers' default rates on mortgages and nonmortgage debts by about 40 percent and 25 percent, respectively. Refinancing also caused borrowers to expand their use of debt instruments, such as auto loans, home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), and other consumer debts that are proxies for spending. All told, refinancing led to a net increase in debt equal to ...
Staff Reports , Paper 841

Report
Barriers to household risk management: evidence from India
Cole, Shawn; Gine, Xavier; Tobacman, Jeremy; Topalova, Petia; Townsend, Robert M.; Vickery, James (2009-05-01)
Financial engineering offers the potential to significantly reduce the consumption fluctuations faced by individuals, households, and firms. Yet much of this potential remains unfulfilled. This paper studies the adoption of an innovative rainfall insurance product designed to compensate low-income Indian farmers in the event of insufficient rainfall during the primary monsoon season. We first document relatively low adoption of this new risk management product: Only 5-10 percent of households purchase the insurance, even though they overwhelmingly cite rainfall variability as their most ...
Staff Reports , Paper 373

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