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Discussion Paper
Just Released: A Closer Look at Recent Tightening in Consumer Credit
Armantier, Olivier; Scally, Joelle; Smith, Kyle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2018-12-03)
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released results today from its October 2018 SCE Credit Access Survey, which provides information on consumers' experiences with and expectations about credit demand and credit access. The survey is fielded every four months and was previously fielded in June.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20181203

Working Paper
The Long-Run Effects of Neighborhood Change on Incumbent Families
Hartley, Daniel; Lee, Kwan Ok; Baum-Snow, Nathaniel (2019-03-18)
A number of prominent studies examine the long-run effects of neighborhood attributes on children by leveraging variation in neighborhood exposure through household moves. However, much neighborhood change comes in place rather than through moving. Using an urban economic geography model as a basis, this paper estimates the causal effects of changes in neighborhood attributes on long-run outcomes for incumbent children and households. For identification, we make use of quasi-random variation in 1990-2000 and 2000-2005 skill specific labor demand shocks hitting each residential metro area ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2019-2

Discussion Paper
Introducing the SCE Public Policy Survey
Koşar, Gizem; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Smith, Kyle (2019-10-17)
Households cope with considerable uncertainty in forming plans and making decisions. This includes uncertainty about their personal situations as well as about their external environment. An important source of uncertainty arises from (often abrupt) changes in government policy, including changes in tax rates and in the benefit level of social programs. Tracking individuals’ subjective beliefs about future policy changes is important for understanding their behavior as consumers and workers. For example, knowing the extent to which tax changes and other shifts in public policy are ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20191017

Discussion Paper
Who is More Likely to Default on Student Loans?
Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Jiang, Michelle; Gorton, Nicole; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2017-11-20)
This post seeks to understand how educational characteristics (school type and selectivity, graduation status, major) and family background relate to the incidence of student loan default. Student indebtedness has grown substantially, increasing by 170 percent between 2006 and 2016. In addition, the fraction of students who default on those loans has grown considerably. Of students who left college in 2010 and 2011, 28 percent defaulted on their student loans within five years, compared with 19 percent of those who left school in 2005 and 2006. Since defaulting on student loans can have ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20171120

Discussion Paper
The Homeownership Gap Is Finally Closing
Peach, Richard; Tracy, Joseph; Haughwout, Andrew F. (2017-02-16)
The homeownership rate peaked at 69 percent in late 2004. By the summer of 2016, it had dropped below 63 percent—exactly where it was when the government started reporting these data back in 1965. The housing bust played a central role in this decline. We capture this effect through what we call the homeownership gap—the difference between the official homeownership rate and the “effective” rate where only homeowners with positive equity in their house are counted. The effective rate takes into account that a borrower does not in an economic sense own the house if the mortgage debt is ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20170216

Discussion Paper
Just Released: Auto Loans in High Gear
Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Lee, Donghoon; Scally, Joelle; Haughwout, Andrew F. (2019-02-12)
Total household debt increased modestly, by $32 billion, in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data. Although household debt balances have been rising since mid-2013, their sluggish growth in the fourth quarter was mainly due to a flattening in the growth of mortgage balances. Auto loans, which have been climbing at a steady clip since 2011, increased by $9 billion, boosted by historically strong levels of newly originated loans. In fact, 2018 marked the highest level in the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190212

Discussion Paper
Have Consumers Been Deleveraging?
Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Lee, Donghoon; Brown, Meta; Haughwout, Andrew F. (2011-03-21)
Since its peak in summer 2008, U.S. consumers’ indebtedness has fallen by more than a trillion dollars. Over roughly the same period, charge-offs—the removal of obligations from consumers’ credit reports because of defaults—have risen sharply, especially on loans secured by houses, which make up about 80 percent of consumer liabilities. An important question for gauging the behavior of U.S. consumers is how to interpret these two trends. Is the reduction in debts entirely attributable to defaults, or are consumers actively reducing their debts? In this post, we demonstrate that a ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20110321

Discussion Paper
Foreclosures Loom Large in the Region
Deitz, Richard; Abel, Jaison R. (2013-04-10)
Households in the New York-northern New Jersey region were spared the worst of the housing bust and have generally experienced less financial stress than average over the past several years. However, as the housing market has begun to recover both regionally and nationally, the region is faring far worse than the nation in one important respect—a growing backlog of foreclosures is resulting in a foreclosure rate that is now well above the national average. In this blog post, we describe this outsized increase in the region’s foreclosure rate and explain why it has occurred. We then ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130410

Discussion Paper
Piggy Banks
Samolyk, Katherine A.; Morgan, Donald P. (2013-05-29)
What do banks do? Ask an economist and you’ll get a variety of answers. Banks play a vital role in allocating capital by linking savers and borrowers; they produce information by screening and monitoring borrowers; they create liquidity; they share and distribute risk; they engage in maturity transformation by borrowing short and lending long. What you won’t usually hear is that banks may help people stick to an optimal savings plan that they might not be able to stick to if they invested their money themselves. In other words, banks may serve as piggy banks by preventing people from ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130529

Discussion Paper
Diplomas to Doorsteps: Education, Student Debt, and Homeownership
Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Gorton, Nicole; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2017-04-03)
Evidence overwhelmingly shows that the average earnings premium to having a college education is high and has risen over the past several decades, in part because of a decline in real average earnings for those without a college degree. In addition to high private returns, there are substantial social returns to having a well-educated citizenry and workforce. A new development that may have important longer-term implications for education investment and for the broader economy is a significant change in the financing of higher education. State funding has declined markedly over the past two ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20170403

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