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Working Paper
Assessing Macroeconomic Tail Risks in a Data-Rich Environment
Cook, Thomas R.; Doh, Taeyoung (2019-11-20)
We use a large set of economic and financial indicators to assess tail risks of the three macroeconomic variables: real GDP, unemployment, and inflation. When applied to U.S. data, we find evidence that a dense model using principal components (PC) as predictors might be misspecified by imposing the “common slope” assumption on the set of predictors across multiple quantiles. The common slope assumption ignores the heterogeneous informativeness of individual predictors on different quantiles. However, the parsimony of the PC-based approach improves the accuracy of out-of-sample forecasts ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 19-12

Working Paper
Internal Migration in the United States: A Comparative Assessment of the Utility of the Consumer Credit Panel
Whitaker, Stephan; Johnson, Janna; DeWaard, Jack (2018-03-23)
This paper demonstrates that credit bureau data, such as the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax (CCP), can be used to study internal migration in the United States. It is comparable to, and in some ways superior to, the standard data used to study migration, including the American Community Survey (ACS), the Current Population Survey (CPS), and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) county-to-county migration data. CCP-based estimates of migration intensity, connectivity, and spatial focusing are similar to estimates derived from the ACS, CPS, and IRS data. The CCP can ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1804

Working Paper
Measuring Uncertainty and Its Impact on the Economy
Clark, Todd E.; Carriero, Andrea; Massimiliano, Marcellino (2016-10-14)
We propose a new framework for measuring uncertainty and its effects on the economy, based on a large VAR model with errors whose stochastic volatility is driven by two common unobservable factors, representing aggregate macroeconomic and financial uncertainty. The uncertainty measures can also influence the levels of the variables so that, contrary to most existing measures, ours reflect changes in both the conditional mean and volatility of the variables, and their impact on the economy can be assessed within the same framework. Moreover, identification of the uncertainty shocks is ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1622

Working Paper
Term Structure Analysis with Big Data
Christensen, Jens H. E.; Rudebusch, Glenn D.; Andreasen, Martin M. (2017-09-15)
Analysis of the term structure of interest rates almost always takes a two-step approach. First, actual bond prices are summarized by interpolated synthetic zero-coupon yields, and second, a small set of these yields are used as the source data for further empirical examination. In contrast, we consider the advantages of a one-step approach that directly analyzes the universe of bond prices. To illustrate the feasibility and desirability of the onestep approach, we compare arbitrage-free dynamic term structure models estimated using both approaches. We also provide a simulation study showing ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2017-21

Working Paper
A Unified Framework for Dimension Reduction in Forecasting
Barbarino, Alessandro; Bura, Efstathia (2017-01-12)
Factor models are widely used in summarizing large datasets with few underlying latent factors and in building time series forecasting models for economic variables. In these models, the reduction of the predictors and the modeling and forecasting of the response y are carried out in two separate and independent phases. We introduce a potentially more attractive alternative, Sufficient Dimension Reduction (SDR), that summarizes x as it relates to y, so that all the information in the conditional distribution of y|x is preserved. We study the relationship between SDR and popular estimation ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-004

Working Paper
Forecasting Consumption Spending Using Credit Bureau Data
Croushore, Dean; Wilshusen, Stephanie M. (2020-06-04)
This paper considers whether the inclusion of information contained in consumer credit reports might improve the predictive accuracy of forecasting models for consumption spending. To investigate the usefulness of aggregate consumer credit information in forecasting consumption spending, this paper sets up a baseline forecasting model. Based on this model, a simulated real-time, out-of-sample exercise is conducted to forecast one-quarter ahead consumption spending. The exercise is run again after the addition of credit bureau variables to the model. Finally, a comparison is made to test ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-22

Working Paper
The U.S. Syndicated Loan Market: Matching Data
Sicilian, Martin; Shaton, Maya; Hayes, William; Friedrichs, Melanie; Gupta, Kamran; Mislang, Nathan; Lee, Seung Jung; Cohen, Gregory J.; Marsh, W. Blake (2018-12-03)
We introduce a new software package for determining linkages between datasets without common identifiers. We apply these methods to three datasets commonly used in academic research on syndicated lending: Refinitiv LPC DealScan, the Shared National Credit Database, and S&P Global Market Intelligence Compustat. We benchmark the results of our match using results from the literature and previously matched files that are publicly available. We find that the company level matching is enhanced by careful cleaning of the data and considering hierarchical relationships. For loan level matching, a ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 18-9

Working Paper
Forecasting U.S. Economic Growth in Downturns Using Cross-Country Data
Yang, Shu-Kuei X.; Nie, Jun (2020-08-20)
To examine whether including economic data on other countries could improve the forecast of U.S. GDP growth, we construct a large data set of 77 countries representing over 90 percent of global GDP. Our benchmark model is a dynamic factor model using U.S. data only, which we extend to include data from other countries. We show that using cross-country data produces more accurate forecasts during the global financial crisis period. Based on the latest vintage data on August 6, 2020, the benchmark model forecasts U.S. real GDP growth in 2020:Q3 to be −6.9 percent (year-over-year rate) or 14.9 ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 20-09

Working Paper
How Magic a Bullet Is Machine Learning for Credit Analysis? An Exploration with FinTech Lending Data
Perkins, Charles B.; Wang, J. Christina (2019-10-14)
FinTech online lending to consumers has grown rapidly in the post-crisis era. As argued by its advocates, one key advantage of FinTech lending is that lenders can predict loan outcomes more accurately by employing complex analytical tools, such as machine learning (ML) methods. This study applies ML methods, in particular random forests and stochastic gradient boosting, to loan-level data from the largest FinTech lender of personal loans to assess the extent to which those methods can produce more accurate out-of-sample predictions of default on future loans relative to standard regression ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-16

Working Paper
The U.S. Syndicated Loan Market : Matching Data
Sicilian, Martin; Shaton, Maya; Hayes, William; Friedrichs, Melanie; Gupta, Kamran; Mislang, Nathan; Lee, Seung Jung; Cohen, Gregory J.; Marsh, W. Blake (2018-12-07)
We introduce a new software package for determining linkages between datasets without common identifiers. We apply these methods to three datasets commonly used in academic research on syndicated lending: Refinitiv LPC DealScan, the Shared National Credit Database, and S&P Global Market Intelligence Compustat. We benchmark the results of our match using results from the literature and previously matched files that are publicly available. We find that the company level matching is enhanced by careful cleaning of the data and considering hierarchical relationships. For loan level matching, a ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-085

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