Search Results

(refine search)

SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT

All:
Title:
Author:
Abstract:
Keywords:

+ Add Search Parameter

Working Paper
International Stock Comovements with Endogenous Clusters
Owyang, Michael T.; Jackson, Laura E.; Coroneo, Laura (2020-03-27)
We examine international stock return comovements of country-industry portfolios. Our model allows comovements to be driven by a global and a cluster component, with the cluster membership endogenously determined. Results indicate that country-industry portfolios tend to cluster mainly within geographical areas that can include one or more countries. The cluster compositions substantially changed over time, with the emergence of clusters among European countries from the early 2000s. The cluster component was the main driver of country-industry portfolio returns for most of the sample, except ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-038

Working Paper
Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models
D'Agostino, Antonello; Giannone, Domenico; Lenza, Michele; Modugno, Michele (2015-08-06)
We develop a framework for measuring and monitoring business cycles in real time. Following a long tradition in macroeconometrics, inference is based on a variety of indicators of economic activity, treated as imperfect measures of an underlying index of business cycle conditions. We extend existing approaches by permitting for heterogenous lead-lag patterns of the various indicators along the business cycles. The framework is well suited for high-frequency monitoring of current economic conditions in real time - nowcasting - since inference can be conducted in presence of mixed frequency ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-66

Working Paper
Common Factors, Trends, and Cycles in Large Datasets
Barigozzi, Matteo; Luciani, Matteo (2017-11-13)
This paper considers a non-stationary dynamic factor model for large datasets to disentangle long-run from short-run co-movements. We first propose a new Quasi Maximum Likelihood estimator of the model based on the Kalman Smoother and the Expectation Maximisation algorithm. The asymptotic properties of the estimator are discussed. Then, we show how to separate trends and cycles in the factors by mean of eigenanalysis of the estimated non-stationary factors. Finally, we employ our methodology on a panel of US quarterly macroeconomic indicators to estimate aggregate real output, or Gross ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-111

Working Paper
Dynamic Factor Copula Models with Estimated Cluster Assignments
Oh, Dong Hwan; Patton, Andrew J. (2022-05-06)
This paper proposes a dynamic multi-factor copula for use in high dimensional time series applications. A novel feature of our model is that the assignment of individual variables to groups is estimated from the data, rather than being pre-assigned using SIC industry codes, market capitalization ranks, or other ad hoc methods. We adapt the k-means clustering algorithm for use in our application and show that it has excellent finite-sample properties. Applying the new model to returns on 110 US equities, we find around 20 clusters to be optimal. In out-of-sample forecasts, we find that a model ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2021-029r1

Working Paper
Betting the House
Taylor, Alan M.; Schularick, Moritz; Jordà, Òscar (2014-12)
Is there a link between loose monetary conditions, credit growth, house price booms, and financial instability? This paper analyzes the role of interest rates and credit in driving house price booms and busts with data spanning 140 years of modern economic history in the advanced economies. We exploit the implications of the macroeconomic policy trilemma to identify exogenous variation in monetary conditions: countries with fixed exchange regimes often see fluctuations in short-term interest rates unrelated to home economic conditions. We use novel instrumental variable local projection ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2014-28

Working Paper
International Stock Comovements with Endogenous Clusters
Owyang, Michael T.; Jackson, Laura E.; Coroneo, Laura (2018-10-24)
We use an endogenous cluster factor model to examine international stock return comovements of country-industry portfolios. Our model allows country-industry portfolio comovements to be driven by a global and a cluster component, with the cluster membership endogenously determined. Results indicate that country-industry portfolios tend to cluster mainly within geographical areas that can include one or more countries. The cluster component was the main driver of country-industry portfolio returns for most of the sample, except from mid-2000 to mid-2010s when the global component had a more ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-038

Report
Corporate Bond Market Distress
Kovner, Anna; Crump, Richard K.; Boyarchenko, Nina; Shachar, Or (2021-01-01)
We link bond market functioning to future economic activity through a new measure, the Corporate Bond Market Distress Index (CMDI). The CMDI coalesces metrics from primary and secondary markets in real time, offering a unified measure to capture access to debt capital markets. The index correctly identifies periods of distress and predicts future realizations of commonly used measures of market functioning, while the converse is not the case. We show that disruptions in access to corporate bond markets have an economically material, statistically significant impact on the real economy, even ...
Staff Reports , Paper 957

Working Paper
Growth-at-Risk is Investment-at-Risk
Amburgey, Aaron; McCracken, Michael W. (2024-08-16)
We investigate the role financial conditions play in the composition of U.S. growth-at-risk. We document that, by a wide margin, growth-at-risk is investment-at-risk. That is, if financial conditions indicate U.S. real GDP growth will be in the lower tail of its conditional distribution, we know that the main contributor is a decline in investment. Consumption contributes under extreme financial stress. Government spending and net exports do not play a role. We show that leverage plays a key role in determining both consumption- and investment-at-risk, which provides support to the financial ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-020

Working Paper
Corporate Bond Market Distress
Boyarchenko, Nina; Crump, Richard K.; Kovner, Anna; Shachar, Or (2024-09)
We link bond market functioning to future economic activity through a new measure, the Corporate Bond Market Distress Index (CMDI). The CMDI coalesces metrics from primary and secondary markets in real time, offering a unified measure to capture access to debt capital markets. The index correctly identifies periods of distress and predicts future realizations of commonly used measures of market functioning, while the converse is not the case. We show that disruptions in access to corporate bond markets have an economically material, statistically significant impact on the real economy, even ...
Working Paper , Paper 24-09

Report
Micro Responses to Macro Shocks
Sancibrián, Víctor; Almuzara, Martín (2024-03-01)
We study panel data regression models when the shocks of interest are aggregate and possibly small relative to idiosyncratic noise. This speaks to a large empirical literature that targets impulse responses via panel local projections. We show how to interpret the estimated coefficients when units have heterogeneous responses and how to obtain valid standard errors and confidence intervals. A simple recipe leads to robust inference: including lags as controls and then clustering at the time level. This strategy is valid under general error dynamics and uniformly over the degree of ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1090

show more (41)

PREVIOUS / NEXT

Fed in Print

Search Results

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Bank

FILTER BY Series

FILTER BY Content Type

FILTER BY Author

FILTER BY Jel Classification

FILTER BY Keywords