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Working Paper
FRED-MD: A Monthly Database for Macroeconomic Research
McCracken, Michael W.; Ng, Serena (2015-06-15)
This paper describes a large, monthly frequency, macroeconomic database with the goal of establishing a convenient starting point for empirical analysis that requires "big data." The dataset mimics the coverage of those already used in the literature but has three appealing features. First, it is designed to be updated monthly using the FRED database. Second, it will be publicly accessible, facilitating comparison of related research and replication of empirical work. Third, it will relieve researchers from having to manage data changes and revisions. We show that factors extracted from our ...
Working Papers , Paper 2015-12

Working Paper
Large panel data models with cross-sectional dependence: a survey
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Chudik, Alexander (2013)
This paper provides an overview of the recent literature on estimation and inference in large panel data models with cross-sectional dependence. It reviews panel data models with strictly exogenous regressors as well as dynamic models with weakly exogenous regressors. The paper begins with a review of the concepts of weak and strong cross-sectional dependence, and discusses the exponent of cross-sectional dependence that characterizes the different degrees of cross-sectional dependence. It considers a number of alternative estimators for static and dynamic panel data models, distinguishing ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 153

Report
Exploiting the monthly data flow in structural forecasting
Reichlin, Lucrezia; Monti, Francesca; Giannone, Domenico (2015-12-01)
This paper develops a framework that allows us to combine the tools provided by structural models for economic interpretation and policy analysis with those of reduced-form models designed for nowcasting. We show how to map a quarterly dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model into a higher frequency (monthly) version that maintains the same economic restrictions. Moreover, we show how to augment the monthly DSGE with auxiliary data that can enhance the analysis and the predictive accuracy in now-casting and forecasting. Our empirical results show that both the monthly version of ...
Staff Reports , Paper 751

Working Paper
Revealing Cluster Structures Based on Mixed Sampling Frequencies
Ahn, Hie Joo; Rho, Yeonwoo; Liu, Yun (2020-09-23)
This paper proposes a new nonparametric mixed data sampling (MIDAS) model and develops a framework to infer clusters in a panel regression with mixed frequency data. The nonparametric MIDAS estimation method is more flexible and substantially simpler to implement than competing approaches. We show that the proposed clustering algorithm successfully recovers true membership in the cross-section, both in theory and in simulations, without requiring prior knowledge of the number of clusters. This methodology is applied to a mixed-frequency Okun's law model for state-level data in the U.S. and ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-082

Working Paper
The Evolution of Regional Beveridge Curves
Owyang, Michael T.; Shell, Hannah; Soques, Daniel (2022-11-23)
The slow recovery of the labor market in the aftermath of the Great Recession highlighted mismatch, the misallocation of workers across space or across industries. We consider the historical evolution of regional mismatch. We construct MSA-level unemployment rates and vacancy data using techniques similar to Barnichon (2010) and a new dataset of online help-wanted ads by MSA. We estimate regional Beveridge curves, identifying the slopes by restricting them to be equal across locations with similar labor market characteristics. We find that the 51 U.S. cities in our sample have four groupings ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-037

Working Paper
Unspanned macroeconomic factors in the yield curve
Coroneo, Laura; Modugno, Michele; Giannone, Domenico (2014-07-30)
In this paper, we extract common factors from a cross-section of U.S. macro-variables and Treasury zero-coupon yields. We find that two macroeconomic factors have an important predictive content for government bond yields and excess returns. These factors are not spanned by the cross-section of yields and are well proxied by economic growth and real interest rates.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-57

Working Paper
Family Job Search and Wealth: The Added Worker Effect Revisited
Garcia-Perez, J. Ignacio; Rendon, Sílvio (2020-04-30)
We propose and estimate a model of family job search and wealth accumulation with data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). This dataset reveals a very asymmetric labor market for household members who share that their job finding is stimulated by their partners' job separation. We uncover a job search-theoretic basis for this added worker effect, which occurs mainly during economic downturns, but also by increased non-employment transfers. Thus, our analysis shows that the policy goal of in-creasing non-employment transfers to support a worker's job search is partially ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-17

Working Paper
Risk-Shifting, Regulation, and Government Assistance
Sharma, Padma (2019-11-26)
This paper examines an episode when policy response to a financial crisis effectively incentivized financial institutions to reallocate their portfolios toward safe assets. Following a shift to a regime of enhanced regulation and scaled-down public assistance during the savings and loan crisis in 1989, I find that thrifts with a high probability of failure increased their composition of safe assets relative to thrifts with a low probability of failure. The findings also show a shift to safe assets among stock thrifts relative to mutual thrifts, thereby providing evidence of risk-shifting from ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 19-10

Working Paper
Shrinkage estimation of high-dimensional factor models with structural instabilities
Schorfheide, Frank; Cheng, Xu; Liao, Zhipeng (2013-12-01)
In high-dimensional factor models, both the factor loadings and the number of factors may change over time. This paper proposes a shrinkage estimator that detects and disentangles these instabilities. The new method simultaneously and consistently estimates the number of pre- and post-break factors, which liberates researchers from sequential testing and achieves uniform control of the family-wise model selection errors over an increasing number of variables. The shrinkage estimator only requires the calculation of principal components and the solution of a convex optimization problem, which ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-4

Working Paper
FRED-QD: A Quarterly Database for Macroeconomic Research
Ng, Serena; McCracken, Michael W. (2020-03-11)
In this paper we present and describe a large quarterly frequency, macroeconomic database. The data provided are closely modeled to that used in Stock and Watson (2012a). As in our previous work on FRED-MD, our goal is simply to provide a publicly available source of macroeconomic “big data” that is updated in real time using the FRED database. We show that factors extracted from this data set exhibit similar behavior to those extracted from the original Stock and Watson data set. The dominant factors are shown to be insensitive to outliers, but outliers do affect the relative influence ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-005

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