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Jel Classification:C25 

Working Paper
Forecasting Low Frequency Macroeconomic Events with High Frequency Data

High-frequency financial and economic indicators are usually time-aggregated before computing forecasts of macroeconomic events, such as recessions. We propose a mixed-frequency alternative that delivers high-frequency probability forecasts (including their confidence bands) for low-frequency events. The new approach is compared with single-frequency alternatives using loss functions for rare-event forecasting. We find: (i) the weekly-sampled spread improves over the monthly-sampled to predict NBER recessions, (ii) the predictive content of financial variables is supplementary to economic ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-028

Working Paper
Duration Dependence, Monetary Policy Asymmetries, and the Business Cycle

We produce business cycle chronologies for U.S. states and evaluate the factors that change the probability of moving from one phase to another. We find strong evidence for positive duration dependence in all business cycle phases but find that the effect is modest relative to other state- and national-level factors. Monetary policy shocks also have a strong influence on the transition probabilities in a highly asymmetric way. The effect of policy shocks depends on the current state of the cycle as well as the sign and size of the shock.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-020

Working Paper
Very Simple Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics

This paper develops an econometric model of industry dynamics for concentrated markets that can be estimated very quickly from market-level panel data on the number of producers and consumers using a nested fixed-point algorithm. We show that the model has an essentially unique symmetric Markov-perfect equilibrium that can be calculated from the fixed points of a finite sequence of low-dimensional contraction mappings. Our nested fixed point procedure extends Rust's (1987) to account for the observable implications of mixed strategies on survival. We illustrate the model's empirical ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2013-20

Working Paper
Predictive Modeling of Surveyed Property Conditions and Vacancy

Using the results of a comprehensive in-person survey of properties in Cleveland, Ohio, we fit predictive models of vacancy and property conditions. We draw predictor variables from administrative data that is available in most jurisdictions such as deed recordings, tax assessor?s property characteristics, and foreclosure filings. Using logistic regression and machine learning methods, we are able to make reasonably accurate out-of-sample predictions. Our findings indicate that housing professionals could use administrative data and predictive models to identify distressed properties between ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1637

Working Paper
Traffic Noise in Georgia: Sound Levels and Inequality

Using Lorenz-type curves, means tests, ordinary least squares, and locally weighted regressions (LWR), we examine the relative burdens of whites, blacks, and Hispanics in Georgia from road and air traffic noise. We find that whites bear less noise than either blacks or Hispanics and that blacks tend to experience more traffic noise than Hispanics. While every Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) showed that blacks experienced relatively more noise than average, such a result did not hold for Hispanics in roughly half of the MSAs. We find much heterogeneity across Census tracts using LWR. For ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-4

Working Paper
International trade and labor reallocation: misclassification errors, mobility, and switching costs

Over the last few decades, international trade has increased at a rapid pace, altering domestic production and labor demand in different sectors of the economy. A growing literature studies the heterogeneous effects of trade shocks on workers’ employment and on welfare when reallocation decisions are costly. The estimated effects critically depend on data on workers’ reallocation patterns, which is typically plagued with coding errors. In this paper, I study the consequences of misclassification errors for estimates of the labor market effects of international trade and show that ...
Working Papers , Paper 2021-014

Working Paper
International trade and labor reallocation: misclassification errors, mobility, and switching costs

Over the last few decades, international trade has increased at a rapid pace, altering domestic production and labor demand in different sectors of the economy. A growing literature has studied the heterogeneous effects of trade shocks on workers’ industry and occupation employment and on welfare when reallocation decisions are costly. The estimated effects critically depend on data on workers’ reallocation patterns, which is typically plagued with coding errors. In this paper, I study the consequences of misclassification errors for estimates of the labor market effects of international ...
Working Papers , Paper 2021-014

Working Paper
Airport Noise in Atlanta: The Inequality of Sound

We examine how changes in the geographic concentrations of Hispanic and African-American populations are correlated with changes in probabilities of airport noise, in Atlanta, during 2003 and 2012. We estimate ordered probit and locally weighted ordered probit regressions for three different noise categories to determine the correlations between these two demographic groups and the aircraft noise levels experienced by people in individual houses that sold. Then we determine the average coefficient for all houses sold in each Census block group, and we plot each year?s coefficients for each ...
Working Papers , Paper 2017-15

Journal Article
Will Wage Growth Alone Get Workers Back Into the Labor Market? Not Likely.

This article finds that compared to baby boomers of the same age, millennials' labor force participation decisions are only about three-quarters as responsive to wage changes, and Generation X's participation decisions are only about half as responsive. These differences are not good news for employers trying to coax workers back into the labor market during a robust pandemic recovery. Using the most recent estimates, from 2019 data, the latest 6 percent year-over-year increase in average hourly pay reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is expected to only close 16 percent of ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2022 , Issue 1 , Pages 12

Journal Article
Will Wage Growth Alone Get Workers Back Into the Labor Market? Not Likely.

This article finds that compared to baby boomers of the same age, millennials' labor force participation decisions are only about three-quarters as responsive to wage changes, and Generation X's participation decisions are only about half as responsive. These differences are not good news for employers trying to coax workers back into the labor market during a robust pandemic recovery. Using the most recent estimates, from 2019 data, the latest 6 percent year-over-year increase in average hourly pay reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is expected to only close 16 percent of ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2022 , Issue 1

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