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Jel Classification:C21 

Working Paper
Shrinking Networks: A Spatial Analysis of Bank Branch Closures

As more consumers take advantage of online banking services, branch networks are declining across the country. Limited attention has been given to identifying any possible spatial patterns of branch closures and, more importantly, the community demographics where branches close their doors. This analysis uses an innovative spatial statistics concept to study financial services: Using data from 2010 to 2016, a random labelling test is conducted to understand branch closure clustering in the Philadelphia, Chicago, and Baltimore metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). Additionally, spatial ...
Working Papers , Paper 18-12

Report
On binscatter

Binscatter, or a binned scatter plot, is a very popular tool in applied microeconomics. It provides a flexible, yet parsimonious way of visualizing and summarizing mean, quantile, and other nonparametric regression functions in large data sets. It is also often used for informal evaluation of substantive hypotheses such as linearity or monotonicity of the unknown function. This paper presents a foundational econometric analysis of binscatter, offering an array of theoretical and practical results that aid both understanding current practices (that is, their validity or lack thereof) as well ...
Staff Reports , Paper 881

Working Paper
A Dummy Test of Identification in Models with Bunching

We propose a simple test of the main identification assumption in models where the treatment variable takes multiple values and has bunching. The test consists of adding an indicator of the bunching point to the estimation model and testing whether the coefficient of this indicator is zero. Although similar in spirit to the test in Caetano (2015), the dummy test has important practical advantages: it is more powerful at detecting endogeneity, and it also detects violations of the functional form assumption. The test does not require exclusion restrictions and can be implemented in many ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2021-068

Working Paper
Decomposing Outcome Differences between HBCU and Non-HBCU Institutions

This paper investigates differences in outcomes between historically black colleges and universities (HBCU) and traditional college and universities (non-HBCUs) using a standard Oaxaca/Blinder decomposition. This method decomposes differences in observed educational and labor market outcomes between HBCU and non-HBCU students into differences in characteristics (both student and institutional) and differences in how those characteristics translate into differential outcomes. Efforts to control for differences in unobservables between the two types of students are undertaken through ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2020-10

Working Paper
Inflation as a global phenomenon - some implications for policy analysis and forecasting

We evaluate the performance of inflation forecasts based on the open-economy Phillips curve by exploiting the spatial pattern of international propagation of inflation. We model these spatial linkages using global inflation and either domestic slack or oil price fluctuations, motivated by a novel interpretation of the forecasting implications of the workhorse openeconomy New Keynesian model (Martnez-Garca and Wynne (2010), Kabukcuoglu and Martnez-Garca (2014)). We find that incorporating spatial interactions yields significantly more accurate forecasts of local inflation in 14 advanced ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 261

Working Paper
Exploring the Nexus Between Inflation and Globalization Under Inflation Targeting Through the Lens of New Zealand’s Experience

We investigate empirically the inflation dynamics in New Zealand, a small open economy and a pioneer in inflation targeting, under various open-economy Phillips curve specifications. Our forecasting exercise suggests that open-economy Phillips curves under standard measures of global slack do not help forecast domestic inflation, possibly indicating measurement problems with global slack itself. In turn, under a stable inflation target we still find that (i) global inflation and (ii) global inflation and oil prices have information content for headline CPI and core CPI inflation over the ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 308

Working Paper
Assessing Macroeconomic Tail Risk

What drives macroeconomic tail risk? To answer this question, we borrow a definition of macroeconomic risk from Adrian et al. (2019) by studying (left-tail) percentiles of the forecast distribution of GDP growth. We use local projections (Jord, 2005) to assess how this measure of risk moves in response to economic shocks to the level of technology, monetary policy, and financial conditions. Furthermore, by studying various percentiles jointly, we study how the overall economic outlook?as characterized by the entire forecast distribution of GDP growth?shifts in response to shocks. We find that ...
Working Paper , Paper 19-10

Working Paper
Assessing Macroeconomic Tail Risk

What drives macroeconomic tail risk? To answer this question, we borrow a definition of macroeconomic risk from Adrian et al. (2019) by studying (left-tail) percentiles of the forecast distribution of GDP growth. We use local projections (Jord, 2005) to assess how this measure of risk moves in response to economic shocks to the level of technology, monetary policy, and financial conditions. Furthermore, by studying various percentiles jointly, we study how the overall economic outlook-as characterized by the entire forecast distribution of GDP growth-shifts in response to shocks. We find that ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-026

Working Paper
Inflation at Risk

We investigate how macroeconomic drivers affect the predictive inflation distribution as well as the probability that inflation will run above or below certain thresholds over the near term. This is what we refer to as Inflation-at-Risk–a measure of the tail risks to the inflation outlook. We find that the recent muted response of the conditional mean of inflation to economic conditions does not convey an adequate representation of the overall pattern of inflation dynamics. Analyzing data from the 1970s reveals ample variability in the conditional predictive distribution of inflation that ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-013

Report
The Spread of COVID-19 and the BCG Vaccine: A Natural Experiment in Reunified Germany

As COVID-19 has spread across the globe, several observers noticed that countries still administering an old vaccine against tuberculosis—the BCG vaccine—have had fewer COVID-19 cases and deaths per capita in the early stages of the outbreak. This paper uses a geographic regression discontinuity analysis to study whether and how COVID-19 prevalence changes discontinuously at the old border between West Germany and East Germany. The border used to separate two countries with very different vaccination policies during the Cold War era. We provide formal evidence that there is indeed a ...
Staff Reports , Paper 926

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