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On binscatter
Farrell, Max H.; Cattaneo, Matias D.; Feng , Yingjie; Crump, Richard K. (2019-02-01)
Binscatter is very popular in applied microeconomics. It provides a flexible, yet parsimonious way of visualizing and summarizing ?big data? in regression settings, and it is often used for informal testing of substantive hypotheses such as linearity or monotonicity of the regression function. This paper presents a foundational, thorough analysis of binscatter: We give an array of theoretical and practical results that aid both in understanding current practices (that is, their validity or lack thereof) and in offering theory-based guidance for future applications. Our main results include ...
Staff Reports , Paper 881

Working Paper
Semi-Parametric Interpolations of Residential Location Values: Using Housing Price Data to Generate Balanced Panels
Cohen, Jeffrey P.; Coughlin, Cletus C.; Clapp, John M. (2014-12-12)
We estimate location values for single family houses by local polynomial regressions (LPR), a semi-parametric procedure, using a standard housing price and characteristics dataset. As a logical extension of the LPR method, we interpolate land values for every property in every year and validate the accuracy of the interpolated estimates with an out-of-sample forecasting approach using Denver sales during 2003 through 2010. We also compare the LPR and OLS models out-of-sample and determine that the LPR model is more efficient at predicting location values. In a balanced panel application, we ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-50

Working Paper
Optimal Taxation, Marriage, Home Production, and Family Labor Supply
Gayle, George-Levi; Shephard, Andrew (2016-05-23)
An empirical approach to optimal income taxation design is developed within an equilibrium collective marriage market model with imperfectly transferable utility. Taxes distort labour supply and time allocation decisions, as well as marriage market outcomes, and the within household decision process. Using data from the American Community Survey and American Time Use Survey, we structurally estimate our model and explore empirical design problems. We consider the optimal design problem when the planner is able to condition taxes on marital status, as in the U.S. tax code, but we allow the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2016-10

Working Paper
The role of jumps in volatility spillovers in foreign exchange markets: meteor shower and heat waves revisited
Lahaye, Jerome; Neely, Christopher J. (2014-10-01)
This paper extends the previous literature on geographic (heat waves) and intertemporal (meteor showers) foreign exchange volatility transmission to characterize the role of jumps and cross-rate propagation. We employ heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) models to capture the quasi-long-memory properties of volatility and the Shapley-Owen R2 measure to quantify the contributions of components. We conclude that meteor showers are more influential than heat waves, that jumps play a modest but significant role in volatility transmission and that significant, bidirectional cross-rate volatility ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-034

Working Paper
New Estimates of the Lerner Index of Market Power for U.S. Banks
Wheelock, David C.; Wilson, Paul W. (2020-02-19)
The Lerner index is widely used to assess firms' market power. However, estimation and interpretation present several challenges, especially for banks, which tend to produce multiple outputs and operate with considerable inefficiency. We estimate Lerner indices for U.S. banks for 2001-18 using nonparametric estimators of the underlying cost and profit functions, controlling for inefficiency, and incorporating banks' off-balance-sheet activities. We find that mis-specification of cost or profit functional forms can seriously bias Lerner index estimates, as can failure to account for ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-012

Working Paper
Nonparametric Estimation of Lerner Indices for U.S. Banks Allowing for Inefficiency and Off-Balance Sheet Activities
Wheelock, David C.; Wilson, Paul W. (2019-04-16)
The Lerner index is widely used to assess firms' market power. However, estimation and interpretation present several challenges, especially for banks, which tend to produce multiple outputs and operate with considerable inefficiency. We estimate Lerner indices for U.S. banks for 2001-18 using nonparametric estimators of the underlying cost and profit functions, controlling for inefficiency, and incorporating banks' off-balance-sheet activities. We find that mis-specification of cost or profit functional forms can seriously bias Lerner index estimates, as can failure to account for ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-12

Working Paper
The Evolution of Scale Economies in U.S. Banking
Wheelock, David C.; Wilson, Paul W. (2015-08-01)
Continued consolidation of the U.S. banking industry and a general increase in the size of banks has prompted some policymakers to consider policies that discourage banks from getting larger, including explicit caps on bank size. However, limits on the size of banks could entail economic costs if they prevent banks from achieving economies of scale. This paper presents new estimates of returns to scale for U.S. banks based on nonparametric, local-linear estimation of bank cost, revenue and profit functions. We report estimates for both 2006 and 2015 to compare returns to scale some seven ...
Working Papers , Paper 2015-21

Working Paper
Time-Geographically Weighted Regressions and Residential Property Value Assessment
Coughlin, Cletus C.; Zabel, Jeffrey; Cohen, Jeffrey P. (2019-01-30)
In this study, we develop and apply a new methodology for obtaining accurate and equitable property value assessments. This methodology adds a time dimension to the Geographically Weighted Regressions (GWR) framework, which we call Time-Geographically Weighted Regressions (TGWR). That is, when generating assessed values, we consider sales that are close in time and space to the designated unit. We think this is an important improvement of GWR since this increases the number of comparable sales that can be used to generate assessed values. Furthermore, it is likely that units that sold at an ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-5

Working Paper
Does inequality cause financial distress? Evidence from lottery winners and neighboring bankruptcies
Agarwal, Sumit; Scholnick, Barry; Mikhed, Vyacheslav (2016-02-11)
Revised Oct 2016. We test the hypothesis that income inequality causes financial distress. To identify the effect of income inequality, we examine lottery prizes of random dollar magnitudes in the context of very small neighborhoods (13 households on average). We find that a C$1,000 increase in the lottery prize causes a 2.4% rise in subsequent bankruptcies among the winners? close neighbors. We also provide evidence of conspicuous consumption as a mechanism for this causal relationship. The size of lottery prizes increases the value of visible assets (houses, cars, motorcycles), but not ...
Working Papers , Paper 16-4

Working Paper
Bayesian Estimation and Comparison of Conditional Moment Models
Shin, Minchul; Simoni, Anna; Chib, Siddhartha (2019-12-09)
We provide a Bayesian analysis of models in which the unknown distribution of the outcomes is speci?ed up to a set of conditional moment restrictions. This analysis is based on the nonparametric exponentially tilted empirical likelihood (ETEL) function, which is constructed to satisfy a sequence of unconditional moments, obtained from the conditional moments by an increasing (in sample size) vector of approximating functions (such as tensor splines based on the splines of each conditioning variable). The posterior distribution is shown to satisfy the Bernstein-von Mises theorem, subject to a ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-51

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