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Working Paper
Financial Frictions, Financial Shocks, and Aggregate Volatility
Fuentes-Albero, Cristina (2014-09-19)
I revisit the Great Inflation and the Great Moderation for nominal and real variables. I document an immoderation in corporate balance sheet variables so that the Great Moderation is best described as a period of divergent patterns in volatilities for real, nominal and financial variables. A model with time-varying financial frictions and financial shocks allowing for structural breaks in the size of shocks and the institutional framework is estimated. The paper shows that (i) while the Great Inflation was driven by bad luck, the Great Moderation was mostly due to better institutions; (ii) ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-84

Report
Real-time inflation forecasting in a changing world
Groen, Jan J. J.; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Paap, Richard (2009-08-01)
This paper revisits the accuracy of inflation forecasting using activity and expectations variables. We apply Bayesian-model averaging across different regression specifications selected from a set of potential predictors that includes lagged values of inflation, a host of real activity data, term structure data, nominal data, and surveys. In this model average, we can entertain different channels of structural instability by incorporating stochastic breaks in the regression parameters of each individual specification within this average, allowing for breaks in the error variance of the ...
Staff Reports , Paper 388

Working Paper
Measuring Uncertainty and Its Effects in the COVID-19 Era
Clark, Todd E.; Marcellino, Massimiliano; Mertens, Elmar; Carriero, Andrea (2020-10-23)
We measure the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak on macroeconomic and financial uncertainty, and we assess the consequences of the latter for key economic variables. We use a large, heteroskedastic vector autoregression (VAR) in which the error volatilities share two common factors, interpreted as macro and financial uncertainty, in addition to idiosyncratic components. Macro and financial uncertainty are allowed to contemporaneously affect the macroeconomy and financial conditions, with changes in the common component of the volatilities providing contemporaneous identifying information on ...
Working Papers , Paper 202032

Working Paper
Ties That Bind: Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest for Small Open Economies
Zhang, Ren; Wynne, Mark A.; Martinez-Garcia, Enrique; Grossman, Valerie (2019-03-31)
This paper estimates the natural interest rate for six small open economies (Australia, Canada, South Korea, Sweden, Switzerland and the U.K.) with a structural New Keynesian model using Bayesian techniques. Our empirical analysis establishes the following four novel findings: First, we show that the open-economy framework provides a better fit of the data than its closed-economy counterpart for the six countries we investigate. Second, we also show that, in all six countries, a monetary policy rule in which the domestic real policy rate tracks the Wicksellian domestic short-term natural rate ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 359

Working Paper
Endogenous Uncertainty
Clark, Todd E.; Carriero, Andrea; Marcellino, Massimiliano (2018-03-29)
We show that macroeconomic uncertainty can be considered as exogenous when assessing its effects on the U.S. economy. Instead, financial uncertainty can at least in part arise as an endogenous response to some macroeconomic developments, and overlooking this channel leads to distortions in the estimated effects of financial uncertainty shocks on the economy. We obtain these empirical findings with an econometric model that simultaneously allows for contemporaneous effects of both uncertainty shocks on economic variables and of economic shocks on uncertainty. While the traditional econometric ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1805

Working Paper
DSGE-SVt: An Econometric Toolkit for High-Dimensional DSGE Models with SV and t Errors
Shin, Minchul; Tan, Fei; Chib, Siddhartha (2021-01-04)
Currently, there is growing interest in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models that have more parameters, endogenous variables, exogenous shocks, and observables than the Smets and Wouters (2007) model, and substantial additional complexities from non-Gaussian distributions and the incorporation of time-varying volatility. The popular DYNARE software package, which has proved useful for small and medium-scale models is, however, not capable of handling such models, thus inhibiting the formulation and estimation of more re-alistic DSGE models. A primary goal of this paper is to ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-02

Working Paper
Bank Holdings and Systemic Risk
Harris, Jeffrey H.; Brunetti, Celso; Mankad, Shawn (2018-09-04)
The recent financial crisis has focused attention on identifying and measuring systemic risk. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to estimate the portfolio composition of banks as function of daily interbank trades and stock returns. While banks? assets are reported to regulators and/or the public at relatively low frequencies (e.g. quarterly or annually), our approach estimates bank asset holdings at higher frequencies which allows us to derive precise estimates of (i) portfolio concentration within each bank?a measure of diversification?and (ii) common holdings across banks?a measure ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-063

Working Paper
Estimating Dynamic Macroeconomic Models : How Informative Are the Data?
Beltran, Daniel O.; Draper, David (2016-08)
Central banks have long used dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, which are typically estimated using Bayesian techniques, to inform key policy decisions. This paper offers an empirical strategy that quantifies the information content of the data relative to that of the prior distribution. Using an off-the-shelf DSGE model applied to quarterly Euro Area data from 1970:3 to 2009:4, we show how Monte Carlo simulations can reveal parameters for which the model's structure obscures identification. By integrating out components of the likelihood function and conducting a Bayesian ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1175

Working Paper
Clustered Housing Cycles
Rubio, Margarita; Owyang, Michael T.; Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben (2015-10-22)
Using a panel of U.S. city-level building permits data, we estimate a Markov-switching model of housing cycles that allows for idiosyncratic departures from a national housing cycle. These departures occur for clusters of cities that experience simultaneous housing contractions. We find that cities do not form housing regions in the traditional geographic sense. Instead, similarities in factors affecting the demand for housing (such as average winter temperature and the unemployment rate) appear to be more important determinants of cyclical comovements than similarities in factors affecting ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1524

Working Paper
High-Dimensional DSGE Models: Pointers on Prior, Estimation, Comparison, and Prediction∗
Shin, Minchul; Tan, Fei; Chib, Siddhartha (2020-09-15)
Working Papers , Paper 20-35

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