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Working Paper
End of the Line: Behavior of HELOC Borrowers Facing Payment Changes
Johnson, Kathleen W.; Sarama, Robert F. (2015-07-10)
An important question in the household finance literature is whether a change in required debt payments affects borrower behavior. One challenge in this literature has been identifying whether higher default rates observed after an increase in debt payments stem from the inability of borrowers to pay the higher amount, or the attrition of better borrowers in advance of the payment change. A related question is whether the higher default rate is a result of specific features of the debt product, or the type of borrower who chooses the product. We address both of these questions as they relate ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-73

Working Paper
Effect of Ownership Composition on Property Prices and Rents: Evidence from Chinese Investment Boom in US Housing Markets
Sakong, Jung (2021-08-16)
A capital influx into local housing markets would be expected to increase house prices, but the spillover effect onto rental prices is theoretically ambiguous. I estimate both price impacts in U.S. residential housing markets using data from a boom in real estate purchases by buyers from China, which amounted to $200 billion of purchases made between 2010 and 2019. Using a novel method to measure these purchases and an instrumental variable for where purchases are made, I find a large positive house price impact. Consistent with investment q-theory, rents fall as constructions rise, ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2021-12

Discussion Paper
Elevated Rent Expectations Continue to Pressure Low-Income Households
Haughwout, Andrew F.; Hyman, Benjamin; Lahey, Benjamin; Lall, Devon; Somerville, Jason (2023-06-22)
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s 2023 SCE Housing Survey, released in April, reported some novel data about expectations for home prices, interest rates, and mortgage refinancing. While the data showed a sharp drop in home price expectations, some of the most notable findings concern renters. In this post, we take a deeper dive into how renters’ expectations and financial situations have evolved over the past year. We find that both owners and renters expect rents to rise rapidly over the next year, albeit at a slower pace than last year. Furthermore, we also show that eviction ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230622

Working Paper
Can More Housing Supply Solve the Affordability Crisis? Evidence from a Neighborhood Choice Model
Anenberg, Elliot; Kung, Edward (2018-05-15)
We estimate a neighborhood choice model using 2014 American Community Survey data to investigate the degree to which new housing supply can improve housing affordability. In the model, equilibrium rental rates are determined so that the number of households choosing each neighborhood is equal to the number of housing units in each neighborhood. We use the estimated model to simulate how rental rates would respond to an exogenous increase in the number of housing units in a neighborhood. We find that the rent elasticity is low, and thus marginal reductions in supply constraints alone are ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-035

Working Paper
Technological innovation in mortgage underwriting and the growth in credit, 1985–2015
Foote, Christopher L.; Loewenstein, Lara; Willen, Paul S. (2019-11-01)
The application of information technology to finance, or ?fintech,? is expected to revolutionize many aspects of borrowing and lending in the future, but technology has been reshaping consumer and mortgage lending for many years. During the 1990s, computerization allowed mortgage lenders to reduce loan-processing times and largely replace human-based assessments of credit risk with default predictions generated by sophisticated empirical models. Debt-to-income ratios at origination add little to the predictive power of these models, so the new automated underwriting systems allowed higher ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-11

Journal Article
The 2009 HMDA data: the mortgage market in a time of low interest rates and economic distress
Brevoort, Kenneth P.; Canner, Glenn B.; Bhutta, Neil; Avery, Robert B. (2010-12)
The data that mortgage lending institutions reported for 2009 under the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act of 1975 (HMDA) reflect the ongoing difficulties in the housing and mortgage markets. This article presents a number of key findings from a review of the 2009 HMDA data. In particular, it documents the wave of refinancing but discusses factors that may have muted such opportunities, explores patterns of lending across groups and areas with high rates of foreclosure, highlights the federal governmentâ€™s greatly expanded role in the mortgage market, and examines how the interest rate ...
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 96 , Issue December , Pages A39-77

Working Paper
Clustered Housing Cycles
Rubio, Margarita; Owyang, Michael T.; Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben (2015-10-22)
Using a panel of U.S. city-level building permits data, we estimate a Markov-switching model of housing cycles that allows for idiosyncratic departures from a national housing cycle. These departures occur for clusters of cities that experience simultaneous housing contractions. We find that cities do not form housing regions in the traditional geographic sense. Instead, similarities in factors affecting the demand for housing (such as average winter temperature and the unemployment rate) appear to be more important determinants of cyclical comovements than similarities in factors affecting ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1524

Discussion Paper
Who Has Been Evicted and Why?
Haughwout, Andrew F.; Zhang, Xiaohan; Liu, Haoyang (2020-07-08)
More than two million American households are at risk of eviction every year. Evictions have been found to cause prolonged homelessness, worsened health conditions, and lack of credit access. During the COVID-19 outbreak, governments at all levels implemented eviction moratoriums to keep renters in their homes. As these moratoriums and enhanced income supports for unemployed workers come to an end, the possibility of a wave of evictions in the second half of the year is drawing increased attention. Despite the importance of evictions and related policies, very few economic studies have been ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200708b

Working Paper
Of Cities and Slums
Monge-Naranjo, Alexander; Torres de Mello Pereira, Luciene; Cavalcanti Ferreira, Pedro (2016-10-01)
The emergence of slums is a common feature in a country's path towards urbanization, structural transformation and development. Based on salient micro and macro evidence of Brazilian labor, housing and education markets, we construct a simple model to examine the conditions for slums to emerge. We then use the model to examine whether slums are barriers or stepping stones for lower skilled households and for the development of the country as a whole. We calibrate our model to explore the dynamic interaction between skill formation, income inequality and structural transformation with the rise ...
Working Papers , Paper 2016-22

Report
How mortgage finance affects the urban landscape
Tracy, Joseph; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Chan, Sewin (2015-02-01)
This chapter considers the structure of mortgage finance in the U.S., and its role in shaping patterns of homeownership, the nature of the housing stock, and the organization of residential activity. We start by providing some background on the design features of mortgage contracts that distinguish them from other loans, and that have important implications for issues presented in the rest of the chapter. We then explain how mortgage finance interacts with public policy, particularly tax policy, to influence a household?s decision to own or rent, and how shifts in the demand for ...
Staff Reports , Paper 713

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