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Working Paper
How Much Does Racial Bias Affect Mortgage Lending? Evidence from Human and Algorithmic Credit Decisions
Bhutta, Neil; Hizmo, Aurel; Ringo, Daniel R. (2022-10-18)
We assess racial discrimination in mortgage approvals using new data on mortgage applications. Minority applicants tend to have significantly lower credit scores, higher leverage, and are less likely than white applicants to receive algorithmic approval from race-blind government automated underwriting systems (AUS). Observable applicant- risk factors explain most of the racial disparities in lender denials. Further, we exploit the AUS data to show there are risk factors we do not directly observe, and our analysis indicates that these factors explain at least some of the residual 1-2 ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2022-067

Working Paper
House Price Growth Interdependencies and Comovement
Cohen, Jeffrey P.; Soques, Daniel; Coughlin, Cletus C. (2021-01-11)
This paper examines house price comovement across U.S. metropolitan areas (MSAs). We develop a Markov-switching framework that includes a spatial similarity element based on distances between MSAs. Our approach allows for house price comovements that occur due to similar timing of downturns across groups or clusters of MSAs. The inclusion of the spatial element improves the model fit compared to a standard endogenous clustering model. We find seven clusters of MSAs, where each cluster experiences idiosyncratic house price downturns, plus one distinct national house price cycle. Notably, only ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-028

Working Paper
House Price Growth Interdependencies and Comovement
Cohen, Jeffrey P.; Soques, Daniel; Coughlin, Cletus C. (2019-09-25)
This paper examines house price diffusion across metropolitan areas in the United States. We develop a generalization of the Hamilton and Owyang (2012) Markov-switching model, where we incorporate direct regional spillovers using a spatial weighting matrix. The Markov-switching framework allows consideration for house price movements that occur due to similar timing of downturns across MSAs. The inclusion of the spatial weighting matrix improves fit compared to a standard endogenous clustering model. We find seven clusters of MSAs that experience idiosyncratic recessions plus one distinct ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-28

Working Paper
Eviction Risk of Rental Housing: Does It Matter How Your Landlord Finances the Property?
Lopez, Luis; An, Xudong; Ambrose, Brent W. (2021-02-11)
We show, using a stylized model, how the ﬁnancing choice of landlords can impact eviction decisions in rental markets. Since multifamily loans rely on timely cash ﬂows from tenants, strict underwriting factors can increase the chances that landlords are able to weather income shocks. Lender provided relief may create further leeway for landlords to work out a deal with tenants who default on rental payments. Using comprehensive data on nationwide evictions in the U.S. and performance records on multifamily mortgages, we conﬁrm predictions from our model by documenting a negative ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-05

Journal Article
GSE guarantees, financial stability, and home equity accumulation
Passmore, Wayne; von Hafften, Alexander H. (2018-24-03)
Before 2008, the government?s ?implicit guarantee? of the securities issued by the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac led to practices by these institutions that threatened financial stability. In 2008, the Federal Housing Finance Agency placed these GSEs into conservatorship. Conservatorship was intended to be temporary but has now reached its tenth year, and policymakers continue to weigh options for reform. In this article, the authors assess both implicit and explicit government guarantees for the GSEs. They argue that adopting a legislatively defined ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue 24-3 , Pages 11-27

Working Paper
House Prices and Rents in the 21st Century
Loewenstein, Lara; Willen, Paul S. (2023-02-01)
We study the joint evolution of prices and rents of residential property. After constructing rent and price indices for renter- and owner-occupied properties, we decompose the change in the price of occupant-owned property into (1) changes in rent, (2) changes in the relative prices of investor- and occupant-owned properties, and (3) changes in the price-rent ratio. Via a simple model, we link our decomposition to different sources of variation in house prices. We argue that while the 2000s boom was plausibly driven by exuberant expectations, the boom of the 2020s more likely resulted from a ...
Working Papers , Paper 23-2

Working Paper
Lease Expirations and CRE Property Performance
Glancy, David P.; Wang, J. Christina (2023-08-01)
This study analyzes how lease expirations affect the performance of commercial real estate (CRE) properties and how these patterns changed during the COVID-19 crisis. Even before the pandemic, lease expirations were associated with a notable increase in the downside risk to a property’s occupancy or income, particularly in weaker property markets. These risks became more pronounced during the pandemic, driven mostly by office properties. During the pandemic, the adverse effect of lease expirations on office occupancy increased more than 50 percent overall, and it doubled for offices in ...
Working Papers , Paper 23-10

Working Paper
Desperate House Sellers: Distress Among Developers
van Straelen, Eileen (2021-10-13)
Using granular data on home builder housing developments from the 2006-09 housing crisis, I show that builders spread house price shocks across geographically distinct projects via their internal capital markets. Builders who experience losses in one area subsequently sell homes in unaffected areas at a discount to raise cash quickly. Financially constrained firms are more likely to cut prices of homes in healthy areas in response to losses in unhealthy ones. Firms also smooth shocks across projects only during the crisis and not during the boom. These results together suggest firm internal ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2021-065

Report
Financial frictions, real estate collateral, and small firm activity in Europe
Blickle, Kristian S.; Banerjee, Ryan N. (2018-10-01)
We observe significant heterogeneity in the correlation between changes in house prices and the growth of small firms across certain countries in Europe. We find that, overall, the correlation is far greater in Southern Europe than in Northern Europe. Using a simple model, we show that this heterogeneity may relate to financial frictions in a country. We confirm the model?s propositions in a number of empirical analyses for the following countries in Northern and Southern Europe: the United Kingdom, Norway, France, Italy, Spain, and Portugal. Small firms in countries with higher financial ...
Staff Reports , Paper 868

Working Paper
No price like home: global house prices, 1870-2012
Knoll, Katharina; Schularick, Moritz; Steger, Thomas (2014-10-01)
How have house prices evolved in the long-run? This paper presents annual house price indices for 14 advanced economies since 1870. Based on extensive data collection, we are able to show for the first time that house prices in most industrial economies stayed constant in real terms from the 19th to the mid-20th century, but rose sharply in recent decades. Land prices, not construction costs, hold the key to understanding the trajectory of house prices in the long-run. Residential land prices have surged in the second half of the 20th century, but did not increase meaningfully before. We ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 208

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