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Discussion Paper
Local Hangovers: How the Housing Boom and Bust Affected Jobs in Metro Areas
Abel, Jaison R.; Deitz, Richard (2011-08-29)
What explains why some places suffered particularly severe job losses during the Great Recession? In this post, we extend our recent Current Issues article analyzing regional dimensions of the latest housing cycle and show that metropolitan areas that experienced the biggest housing booms and busts from 2000 to 2008 lost the most jobs during the recession. Not surprisingly, construction activity helps explain the tight link between housing and local job market performance. Given this pattern, we believe that each metro area’s boom-bust experience is likely to continue to influence its ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20110829

Discussion Paper
Just Released: Who's Borrowing Now? The Young and the Riskless!
Lee, Donghoon; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Yun, David; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2014-02-18)
According to today’s release of the New York Fed’s 2013:Q4 Household Debt and Credit Report, aggregate consumer debt increased by $241 billion in the fourth quarter, the largest quarter-to-quarter increase since 2007. More importantly, between 2012:Q4 and 2013:Q4, total household debt rose $180 billion, marking the first four-quarter increase in outstanding debt since 2008. As net household borrowing resumes, it is interesting to see who is driving these balance changes, and to compare some of today’s patterns with those of the boom period.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140218b

Journal Article
Housing affordability: recommendations for new research to guide policy
Dokko, Jane K. (2018-24-03)
This article highlights areas where economic research is needed to guide federal policymakers addressing the challenge of improving housing affordability. The author places these research recommendations in the framework of five key issues, reflecting policymakers? need to identify a rationale for government action; to employ a single, clear measure to gauge affordability; to understand the unintended consequences of current housing policies; to ensure that the political environment is considered when developing policy; and to decide whether to use housing finance reform as a means of ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue 24-3 , Pages 138-144

Discussion Paper
“Flip This House”: Investor Speculation and the Housing Bubble
Tracy, Joseph; Lee, Donghoon; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2011-12-05)
The recent financial crisis—the worst in eighty years—had its origins in the enormous increase and subsequent collapse in housing prices during the 2000s. While the housing bubble has been the subject of intense public debate and research, no single answer has emerged to explain why prices rose so fast and fell so precipitously. In this post, we present new findings from our recent New York Fed study that uses unique data to suggest that real estate “investors”—borrowers who use financial leverage in the form of mortgage credit to purchase multiple residential properties—played a ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20111205

Discussion Paper
First Impressions Can Be Misleading: Revisions to House Price Changes
Peach, Richard; Tracy, Joseph; Abel, Joshua (2013-03-26)
An assiduous follower of the national house price charts that the New York Fed maintains on its web page may have noticed that we appear to be rewriting history as we update the charts every month. For example, last month we reported that the median twelve-month house price change across all counties for December 2012 was 3.68 percent. However, this month, we indicate that this same median change for December 2012 was instead 3.45 percent. Why the change? Was the earlier reported number a mistake that we simply corrected this month? If not, what explains the revision to the initial report?
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130326

Newsletter
Bank Exposure to Commercial Real Estate and the Covid-19 Pandemic
Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam; Drexler, Alejandro; Binder, Kyle; Greenwald, Emily (2021-11-01)
The Covid-19 pandemic had an immediate and substantial impact on the commercial real estate (CRE) market—emptying workplaces, shopping centers, and hotels, thus affecting the cash flows of businesses occupying commercial space and in turn the ability of commercial space owners to meet their debt obligations.Delinquent CRE loans began to surface soon after the pandemic started and remain elevated in 2021. Broad loan delinquencies would represent a potential threat to bank capitalization and solvency, particularly for smaller banks that tend to have higher concentrations in CRE lending. ...
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue 463 , Pages 7

Working Paper
Owner-Occupancy Fraud and Mortgage Performance
Elul, Ronel; Payne, Aaron; Tilson, Sebastian (2023-01-31)
We identify occupancy fraud — borrowers who misrepresent their occupancy status as owner-occupants rather than investors — in residential mortgage originations. Unlike previous work, we show that fraud was prevalent in originations not just during the housing bubble, but also persists through more recent times. We also demonstrate that fraud is broad-based and appears in government-sponsored enterprise and bank portfolio loans, not just in private securitization; these fraudulent borrowers make up one-third of the effective investor population. Occupancy fraud allows riskier borrowers to ...
Working Papers , Paper 23-01

Working Paper
Real Estate Commissions and Homebuying
Grochulski, Borys; Wang, Zhu (2024-02-28)
We construct a model of home search and buying in the U.S. housing market and evaluate the commission paid to homebuyers' agents. In the model, as in reality, homebuyers enjoy free house showings without having to pay their agents out of pocket. Buyers' agents receive a commission equal to 3% of the house price only after a home is purchased. We show this compensation structure deviates from cost basis and may lead to elevated home prices, overused agent services, and prolonged home searches. Based on the model, we discuss policy interventions that may improve housing search efficiency and ...
Working Paper , Paper 24-01

Working Paper
The Price of Housing in the United States, 1890–2006
Lyons, Ronan; Shertzer, Allison; Gray, Rowena; Agorastos, David (2024-06-20)
We construct the first consistent market rent and home sales price series for American cities across the 20th century using millions of newspaper real estate listings. Our findings revise several stylized facts about U.S. housing markets. Real market rents did not fall during the 20th century for most cities. Instead, real rental price levels increased by about 20 percent from 1890 to 2006. There was also greater growth in real housing sales prices from 1965 to 1995 than is commonly understood. Using these series, we document several new facts about housing markets. The return to ...
Working Papers , Paper 24-12

Working Paper
Credit Availability for Minority Business Owners in an Evolving Credit Environment: Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Barkley, Brett; Schweitzer, Mark E. (2022-06-02)
We apply data from the Federal Reserve’s Small Business Credit Survey from 2016 to 2020 to estimate disparities in access to small business financing through loan denials and discouragement. We find that substantial credit disparities continue to exist despite the growth of fintech lenders, which prior research shows have expanded the set of small businesses receiving credit. Because the pandemic period brought many direct changes to the business and lending environment, we separately analyze the change to lending in 2020. PPP loans represented an unprecedented support for small businesses, ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-18

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