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Working Paper
Technological innovation in mortgage underwriting and the growth in credit, 1985–2015
Foote, Christopher L.; Loewenstein, Lara; Willen, Paul S. (2019-11-01)
The application of information technology to finance, or ?fintech,? is expected to revolutionize many aspects of borrowing and lending in the future, but technology has been reshaping consumer and mortgage lending for many years. During the 1990s, computerization allowed mortgage lenders to reduce loan-processing times and largely replace human-based assessments of credit risk with default predictions generated by sophisticated empirical models. Debt-to-income ratios at origination add little to the predictive power of these models, so the new automated underwriting systems allowed higher ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-11

Working Paper
Understanding house price index revisions
Elul, Ronel; Silverstein, Joseph M.; Stark, Tom (2014-12-22)
Residential house price indexes (HPI) are used for a large variety of macroeconomic and microeconomic research and policy purposes, as well as for automated valuation models. As is well known, these indexes are subject to substantial revisions in the months following the initial release, both because transaction data can be slow to come in, and as a consequence of the repeat sales methodology, which interpolates the effect of sales over the entire period since the house last changed hands. We study the properties of the revisions to the CoreLogic House Price Index. This index is used both by ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-38

Working Paper
Mortgages and monetary policy
Garriga, Carlos; Kydland, Finn E.; Šustek, Roman (2013)
Mortgages are long-term nominal loans. Under incomplete asset markets, monetary policy is shown to affect housing investment and the economy through the cost of new mortgage borrowing and the value of payments on outstanding debt. These channels, distinct from traditional transmission of monetary policy, are evaluated within a general equilibrium model. Persistent monetary policy shocks, resembling the level factor in the nominal yield curve, have larger effects than transitory shocks, manifesting themselves as long-short spread. The transmission is stronger under adjustable- than fixed-rate ...
Working Papers , Paper 2013-37

Journal Article
Housing affordability: recommendations for new research to guide policy
Dokko, Jane K. (2018-24-03)
This article highlights areas where economic research is needed to guide federal policymakers addressing the challenge of improving housing affordability. The author places these research recommendations in the framework of five key issues, reflecting policymakers? need to identify a rationale for government action; to employ a single, clear measure to gauge affordability; to understand the unintended consequences of current housing policies; to ensure that the political environment is considered when developing policy; and to decide whether to use housing finance reform as a means of ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue 24-3 , Pages 138-144

Working Paper
The Closing of a Major Airport: Immediate and Longer-Term Housing Market Effects
Coughlin, Cletus C.; Ross, Stephen L.; Cohen, Jeffrey P.; Crews, Jonas C. (2020-01-08)
The closing of a busy airport has large effects on noise and economic activity. Using a unique dataset, we examine the effects of closing Denver’s Stapleton Airport on nearby housing markets. We find evidence of immediate anticipatory price effects upon announcement, but no price changes at closing likely because closing was widely anticipated. Further, after airport closure, high income and white households moved into these locations and developers upgraded the quality of houses being built. Finally, post-closing, these demographic and housing stock changes had substantial effects on ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-001

Discussion Paper
Developing Inclusive Communities: Challenges and Opportunities for Mixed-Income Housing
Duckworth, Richard; Carpenter, Ann; Lewis Glover, Renée (2017-06-01)
Over the past decade, housing costs have risen faster than incomes. The need for affordable rental housing has well outpaced the number of available units as well as funding allocations at the federal level. Local regulation and land use policies that increase the cost of subsidized, mixed-income housing construction and preservation have contributed to the affordability problem. {{p}} To meet the affordable housing needs in U.S. communities, innovation, creativity, and "out of the box" thinking may be required, particularly as it relates to reducing the rapidly increasing costs of ...
FRB Atlanta Community and Economic Development Discussion Paper , Paper 2017-1

Working Paper
Beliefs, Aggregate Risk, and the U.S. Housing Boom
Jacobson, Margaret M. (2022-09-23)
Endogenously optimistic beliefs about future house prices can account for the path and standard deviation of house prices in the U.S. housing boom of the 2000s. In a general equilibrium model with incomplete markets and aggregate risk, agents form beliefs about future house prices in response to shocks to fundamentals. In an income expansion with looser credit conditions, agents are more likely to underpredict house prices and revise up their beliefs. Matching the standard deviation and steady rise in house prices results in homeownership becoming less affordable later in the boom as well as ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2022-061

Working Paper
Measuring Mortgage Credit Availability : A Frontier Estimation Approach
Hizmo, Aurel; Molloy, Raven S.; Kung, Edward; Anenberg, Elliot (2017-09-29)
We construct a new measure of mortgage credit availability that describes the maximum amount obtainable by a borrower of given characteristics. We estimate this "loan frontier" using mortgage originations data from 2001 to 2014 and show that it reflects a binding borrowing constraint. Our estimates reveal that the expansion of mortgage credit during the housing boom was substantial for all borrowers, not only for low-score or low-income borrowers. The contraction was most pronounced for low-score borrowers. Using variation in the frontier across metropolitan areas over time, we show that ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-101

Working Paper
Determinants of Differential Rent Changes: Mean Reversion versus the Usual Suspects
Marsh, Fred; Shoemaker, Owen; Verbrugge, Randal J.; Poole, Robert; Dorfman, Alan; Johnson, William (2015-08-05)
We study 2001-2004 and 2004-2007 rent growth of 18,000 rental units, ending our study prior to the Great Recession. Which variables correlate with rent growth: Location? Age? Rent level? Occupancy duration? Structure type? The answers deepen understanding of the rental market, help statistical agencies make decisions about sample stratification and substitution, and expose coverage problems. We document significant rent stickiness. Initial relative rent level is the best predictor, though mainly due to mean reversion. "Location" comes in second, though often not statistically significantly: ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1511

Discussion Paper
Declines in Low-Cost Rented Housing Units in Eight Large Southeastern Cities
Lueders, Abram; Carpenter, Ann; Immergluck, Daniel (2016-05-01)
From the last quarter of 2012 to the last quarter of 2015, median rents rose 23.4 percent in the South, according to the Census Bureau. Accordingly, an increasing number of households in the South are cost-burdened, which is defined as a household spending more than 30 percent of its income on housing. A growing number of households spend over 50 percent of their income on rent, making them severely cost-burdened. The percentage of such severely cost-burdened households with incomes below $35,000 reached 80 percent in 2014 in eight central cities in the Southeast (Atlanta, Birmingham, ...
FRB Atlanta Community and Economic Development Discussion Paper , Paper 2016-3

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