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Speech
The national and regional economy
Dudley, William (2014-10-07)
Remarks at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York.
Speech , Paper 144

Working Paper
Death of Coal and Breath of Life: The Effect of Power Plant Closure on Local Air Quality
Tousey, Colton; Brown, Jason (2020-10-15)
The number of U.S. coal-fired power plants declined by nearly 250 between 2001 and 2018. Given that burning coal generates large amounts of particulate matter, which is known to have adverse health effects, the closure of a coal-fired power plant should improve local air quality. Using spatial panel data from air quality monitor stations and coal-fired power plants, we estimate the relationship between plant closure and local air quality. We find that on average, the levels of particulate matter within 25 and 50 mile buffers around air quality monitors declined between 7 and 14 percent with ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 20-15

Working Paper
Is the grass really greener? Migrants' improvements in local labor market conditions and financial health
Whitaker, Stephan (2022-02-22)
This paper documents several facts about internal migrants in the US that underlie substantial areas of economic research and policy making, but are rarely directly published. Using a large-sample, 23-year panel, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel, I estimate the distribution of changes in local labor market conditions experienced by people who move to a different labor market. Net migration favors local labor markets with lower unemployment and faster job growth, but gross flows toward weaker labor markets are almost as large as the flows toward stronger labor ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-04

Working Paper
A State-Level Analysis of Okun's Law
Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben; Owyang, Michael T.; Sinclair, Tara M.; Guisinger, Amy Y. (2015-09-08)
Okun's law is an empirical relationship that measures the correlation between the deviation of the unemployment rate from its natural rate and the deviation of output growth from its potential. This relationship is often referred to by policy makers and used by forecasters. In this paper, we estimate Okun's coefficients separately for each U.S. state using an unobserved components framework and find variation of the coefficients across states. We exploit this heterogeneity of Okun's coefficients to directly examine the potential factors that shape Okun's law, and find that indicators of more ...
Working Papers , Paper 2015-29

Discussion Paper
Locally Owned: Do Local Business Ownership and Size Matter for Local Economic Well-being?
Rupasingha, Anil (2013-08-01)
The concept of “economic gardening”—supporting locally owned businesses over nonlocally owned businesses and small businesses over large ones—has gained traction as a means of economic development since the 1980s. However, there is no definitive evidence for or against this prolocal business view. Therefore, I am using a rich U.S. county-level data set to obtain a statistical characterization of the relationship between local-based entrepreneurship and county economic performance for the period 2000–2009. I investigate the importance of the size of locally based businesses relative ...
FRB Atlanta Community and Economic Development Discussion Paper , Paper 2013-01

Report
Human capital and economic activity in urban America
Gabe, Todd M.; Abel, Jaison R. (2008-07-01)
We examine the relationship between human capital and economic activity in U.S. metropolitan areas, extending the literature in two ways. First, we utilize new data on metropolitan area GDP to measure economic activity. Results show that a one-percentage-point increase in the proportion of residents with a college degree is associated with about a 2 percent increase in metropolitan area GDP per capita. Second, we develop measures of human capital that reflect the types of knowledge within U.S. metropolitan areas. Regional knowledge stocks related to the provision of producer services and ...
Staff Reports , Paper 332

Working Paper
DO NON-COMPETE COVENANTS INFLUENCE STATE STARTUP ACTIVITY? EVIDENCE FROM THE MICHIGAN EXPERIMENT
Carlino, Gerald A. (2021-08-05)
This paper examines how the enforceability of employee non compete agreements affects the entry of new establishments and jobs created by these new firms. We use a panel of startup activity for the U.S. states for the period 1977 to 2013. We exploit Michigan’s inadvertent policy reversal in 1985 that transformed the state from a non enforcing to an enforcing state as a quasinatural experiment to estimate the causal effect of enforcement on startup activity. In a difference-in-difference framework, we find little support for the widely held view that enforcement of non-compete agreements ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-26

Working Paper
The Alpha Beta Gamma of the Labor Market
Menzio, Guido; Wiczer, David; Gregory, Victoria (2021-04-01)
Based on patterns of employment transitions, we identify three different types of workers in the US labor market: α’s β’s and γ’s. Workers of type α make up over half of all workers, are most likely to remain on the same job for more than 2 years and, when they become unemployed, typically find a new job within 1 quarter. Workers of type γ comprise less than one-fifth of workers, have a low probability of staying on the same job for more than 2 years and, when they become unemployed, face a high probability of remaining jobless for more than 1 year. Workers of type β are in ...
Working Papers , Paper 2021-003

Working Paper
National and Regional Housing Vacancy: Insights Using Markov-switching Models
Cohen, Jeffrey P.; Coughlin, Cletus C.; Crews, Jonas C. (2018-05-11)
We examine homeowner vacancy rates over time and space using Markov-switching models. Our theoretical analysis extends the Wheaton (1990) search and matching model for housing by incorporating regime-switching behavior and interregional spillovers. Our approach is strongly supported by our empirical results. Estimations, using constant-only as well as Vector Autoregressions, allow us to examine differences in vacancy rates as well as explore the possibility of asymmetries within and across housing markets, depending on the state/regime (e.g., low or high vacancy) of a given housing market. ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-7

Working Paper
Temperature and Growth: A Panel Analysis of the United States
Phan, Toan; Colacito, Riccardo; Hoffman, Bridget (2018-04-11)
We document that seasonal temperatures have significant and systematic effects on the U.S. economy, both at the aggregate level and across a wide cross-section of economic sectors. This effect is particularly strong for the summer: a 1 degree F increase in the average summer temperature is associated with a reduction in the annual growth rate of state-level output of 0.15 to 0.25 percentage points. We combine our estimates with projected increases in seasonal temperatures and find that rising temperatures could reduce U.S. economic growth by up to one-third over the next century.
Working Paper , Paper 18-9

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